KPIT / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 65°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST57%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

77%

64%

46%

17%

Consensus

57%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 53.5¢Risks 53.50u

EPSNO 46.5¢Risks 46.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +46.50u · EPS −46.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T03:45:03+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T08:00:51+00:00	73.4%	33.6%	81.9%	42.0%	24.1%
2026-10-18T08:47:08+00:00	73.4%	33.6%	81.9%	42.0%	24.1%
2026-10-18T09:32:16+00:00	73.4%	33.6%	81.9%	42.0%	24.1%
2026-10-18T10:17:24+00:00	73.4%	33.6%	81.9%	42.0%	24.1%
2026-10-18T11:02:34+00:00	73.4%	14.6%	83.6%	42.0%	24.1%
2026-10-18T11:48:11+00:00	73.4%	14.6%	83.6%	42.0%	24.1%
2026-10-18T12:33:24+00:00	73.4%	14.6%	83.6%	42.0%	24.1%
2026-10-18T13:18:59+00:00	73.4%	14.6%	83.6%	42.0%	24.1%
2026-10-18T14:04:07+00:00	77.3%	14.6%	83.6%	42.0%	23.9%
2026-10-18T14:55:34+00:00	77.3%	14.6%	83.6%	42.0%	23.9%
2026-10-18T15:41:24+00:00	77.3%	17.2%	83.6%	42.0%	23.9%
2026-10-18T16:26:46+00:00	77.3%	17.2%	83.6%	42.0%	23.9%
2026-10-18T17:12:04+00:00	77.3%	17.2%	85.9%	42.0%	23.9%
2026-10-18T17:57:16+00:00	77.3%	17.2%	85.9%	42.0%	23.9%
2026-10-18T18:42:45+00:00	77.3%	17.2%	85.9%	42.0%	23.9%
2026-10-18T19:27:53+00:00	76.2%	17.2%	85.9%	45.7%	64.4%
2026-10-18T20:13:04+00:00	76.2%	17.2%	85.9%	45.7%	64.4%
2026-10-18T20:58:13+00:00	76.2%	17.2%	85.9%	45.7%	64.4%
2026-10-18T21:43:22+00:00	76.2%	17.2%	85.9%	45.7%	64.4%
2026-10-18T22:28:30+00:00	76.2%	17.2%	85.9%	45.7%	64.4%
2026-10-18T23:13:37+00:00	76.2%	17.2%	89.8%	45.7%	64.4%
2026-10-18T23:58:48+00:00	76.2%	17.2%	89.8%	45.7%	64.4%
2026-10-19T00:44:03+00:00	76.2%	17.2%	89.8%	45.7%	64.4%
2026-10-19T01:29:28+00:00	76.7%	17.2%	89.8%	45.7%	64.4%
2026-10-19T02:14:42+00:00	76.7%	17.2%	89.8%	45.7%	64.4%
2026-10-19T02:59:52+00:00	76.7%	17.2%	89.8%	45.7%	64.4%
2026-10-19T03:45:03+00:00	76.7%	17.2%	89.8%	45.7%	64.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	90%	71.0°F	5.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	77%	68.7°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
ICON	64%	68.2°F	10.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	65.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	46%	63.8°F	6.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	17%	60.9°F	3.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 65°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261025-TMAX-GE65
Opened Oct 18 · 08:00 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 65°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗