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KPIT / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST85%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
96%
WN2
94%
EPS
85%
ICON
64%
HRES
38%
Consensus
85%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 66.6¢Risks 66.65u
VS
HRESNO 33.4¢Risks 33.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +33.35u · HRES −33.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 7.1% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.5% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 41.5% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 27.0% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 65.0% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 26.1% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 48.9% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 67.5% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 38.5% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.3% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 60.0% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 83.8% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 94.2% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 85.4% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 44.2% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 84.1% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 86.3% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 75.7% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 79.2% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 84.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 79.2% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 76.6% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 88.8% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 76.9% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 63.4% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 35.2% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.9% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 23.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.1% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 64.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 18.5% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 84.9% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 88.7% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 43.3% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 12.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 41.7% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.2% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 82.4% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 68.5% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 35.4% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 62.4% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 52.7% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 36.5% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00GEM: 60.0% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 11.8% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 54.8% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 45.2% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 40.0% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 49.5% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 52.7% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 55.3% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 52.7% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 59.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 56.6% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 49.4% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 56.4% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 48.8% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 40.1% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 48.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 46.6% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:0010-12 06:0010-16 06:0010-20 06:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSGEMIFS archive
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSGEMIFS*
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:007.1%————
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:001.5%———11.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:0041.5%————
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:0027.0%———54.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:0065.0%————
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:0026.1%———45.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:0048.9%————
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:0067.5%———40.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:0038.5%————
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:0010.3%———49.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:0060.0%————
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:0083.8%———52.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:0094.2%————
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:0085.4%———55.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:0044.2%————
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:0084.1%———52.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:0086.3%————
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:0075.7%———59.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:0079.2%————
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:0084.0%———56.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:0079.2%————
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:0076.6%———49.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:0088.8%————
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:0076.9%—12.0%—56.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:0063.4%—41.7%——
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:0035.2%———48.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:0013.9%—5.2%——
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:0023.0%—82.4%—40.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:0014.1%—68.5%——
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:0064.0%—35.4%—48.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:0018.5%—62.4%——
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:0084.9%43.3%52.7%60.0%46.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:0088.7%—36.5%——
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single96%71.2°F5.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 294%69.3°F5.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble85%65.2°F3.6°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
ICON64%65.1°F10.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend53%62.0°F7.7°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
IFS HRES38%59.5°F6.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261027-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 20 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 62°F · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗