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KPIT / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST85%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
96%
WN2
94%
EPS
85%
ICON
64%
HRES
38%
Consensus
85%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 66.6¢Risks 66.65u
VS
HRESNO 33.4¢Risks 33.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +33.35u · HRES −33.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 95.4% · 2026-10-20T10:53:01+00:00AIFS Single: 95.4% · 2026-10-20T11:39:42+00:00AIFS Single: 95.4% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00AIFS Single: 95.4% · 2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00AIFS Single: 95.5% · 2026-10-20T13:55:08+00:00AIFS Single: 95.5% · 2026-10-20T14:46:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 84.8% · 2026-10-20T10:53:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 84.8% · 2026-10-20T11:39:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 84.8% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 84.8% · 2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 84.8% · 2026-10-20T13:55:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 84.8% · 2026-10-20T14:46:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.7% · 2026-10-20T10:53:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.7% · 2026-10-20T11:39:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.7% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.7% · 2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.7% · 2026-10-20T13:55:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.7% · 2026-10-20T14:46:20+00:00IFS HRES: 37.8% · 2026-10-20T10:53:01+00:00IFS HRES: 37.8% · 2026-10-20T11:39:42+00:00IFS HRES: 37.8% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00IFS HRES: 37.8% · 2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00IFS HRES: 37.8% · 2026-10-20T13:55:08+00:00IFS HRES: 37.8% · 2026-10-20T14:46:20+00:00ICON: 64.0% · 2026-10-20T10:53:01+00:00ICON: 64.0% · 2026-10-20T11:39:42+00:00ICON: 64.0% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00ICON: 64.0% · 2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00ICON: 64.0% · 2026-10-20T13:55:08+00:00ICON: 64.0% · 2026-10-20T14:46:20+00:0010-20 10:5310-20 13:0910-20 14:46
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T14:46:20+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T10:53:01+00:0095.4%84.8%93.7%37.8%64.0%
2026-10-20T11:39:42+00:0095.4%84.8%93.7%37.8%64.0%
2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:0095.4%84.8%93.7%37.8%64.0%
2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:0095.4%84.8%93.7%37.8%64.0%
2026-10-20T13:55:08+00:0095.5%84.8%93.7%37.8%64.0%
2026-10-20T14:46:20+00:0095.5%84.8%93.7%37.8%64.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single96%71.2°F5.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 294%69.3°F5.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble85%65.2°F3.6°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
ICON64%65.1°F10.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend53%62.0°F7.7°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
IFS HRES38%59.5°F6.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261027-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 20 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 62°F · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗