KRDU / Thu Oct 1 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Raleigh, NCHigh ≥ 85°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESSep 25 · 02:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

84%

84%

75%

59%

42%

Consensus

68%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 63.0¢Risks 63.05u

WN2NO 37.0¢Risks 36.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +36.95u · WN2 −36.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	2.1%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	17.9%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	18.6%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	17.9%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	16.4%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	44.0%	—	—	—	—	15.7%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	41.7%	—	2.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	42.7%	—	—	—	—	21.7%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	39.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	—	55.9%	—	—	30.9%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	28.0%	—	61.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	48.2%	—	2.8%	—	—	30.2%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	2.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	11.3%	—	60.0%	—	—	31.8%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	74.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	60.9%	—	69.9%	—	—	47.4%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	67.9%	—	46.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	63.3%	2.1%	19.4%	—	—	56.1%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	66.7%	—	86.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	81.1%	7.7%	—	56.3%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	64.0%	—	83.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	54.4%	60.1%	74.6%	37.8%	—	52.9%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	—	84.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	52.3%	93.5%	23.9%	—	59.8%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	88.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	60.3%	53.2%	89.6%	37.5%	—	64.1%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	58.1%	0.5%	86.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	59.9%	42.5%	87.5%	41.7%	—	62.3%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	61.0%	50.9%	85.8%	—	—	0.1%
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	62.9%	66.2%	80.4%	33.8%	—	73.1%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	60.7%	64.1%	76.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	65.3%	61.8%	77.0%	42.7%	—	62.7%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	65.7%	71.6%	79.0%	—	—	68.2%
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	66.1%	76.8%	81.7%	37.6%	—	68.7%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	60.9%	75.1%	83.6%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	63.1%	73.2%	85.5%	49.0%	—	62.2%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	64.5%	81.7%	83.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	64.9%	81.0%	79.4%	52.2%	—	67.9%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	67.5%	76.9%	81.7%	0.0%	—	68.5%
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	63.7%	77.6%	82.5%	53.5%	66.9%	65.9%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	65.3%	75.6%	86.1%	54.8%	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	65.8%	71.3%	85.6%	56.2%	56.2%	64.6%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	59.0%	65.1%	89.7%	52.6%	—	0.0%
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	60.6%	65.7%	90.5%	55.4%	55.4%	55.4%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	65.0%	72.4%	90.2%	45.8%	—	55.6%
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	66.9%	77.8%	90.5%	41.4%	54.3%	48.5%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	59.0%	66.2%	87.2%	38.1%	—	38.1%
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	65.4%	66.8%	89.8%	40.6%	56.3%	37.6%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	83.0%	80.8%	46.7%	—	33.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	84%	90.1°F	5.6°F	2026-09-24 18:00	0.0246
IFS HRES	84%	90.9°F	6.4°F	2026-09-24 12:00	0.0250
ICON	75%	91.2°F	9.8°F	2026-09-24 12:00	0.0610
IFS Ensemble	59%	85.2°F	3.0°F	2026-09-24 00:00	0.1665
National Blend	54%	85.0°F	5.3°F	2026-09-23 06:00	0.2134
WeatherNext 2	42%	83.5°F	4.9°F	2026-09-24 12:00	0.3387

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 85°F · KRDU

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRDU-20261001-TMAX-GE85
Opened Sep 24 · 07:27 UTC

Original listing: Raleigh high ≥ 85°F · Thu Oct 1

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗