KRDU / Thu Oct 1 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Raleigh, NCHigh ≥ 85°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESSep 25 · 02:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

84%

84%

75%

59%

42%

Consensus

68%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 63.0¢Risks 63.05u

WN2NO 37.0¢Risks 36.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +36.95u · WN2 −36.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-25T02:18:57+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-24T07:27:40+00:00	84.7%	43.2%	41.6%	86.5%	20.7%
2026-09-24T08:13:23+00:00	84.7%	43.2%	41.6%	86.5%	20.7%
2026-09-24T08:58:36+00:00	84.7%	43.2%	41.6%	86.5%	20.7%
2026-09-24T09:43:40+00:00	84.7%	43.2%	41.6%	86.5%	20.7%
2026-09-24T10:28:45+00:00	84.7%	43.2%	41.6%	86.5%	20.7%
2026-09-24T11:13:51+00:00	84.7%	68.5%	46.7%	86.5%	20.7%
2026-09-24T11:58:57+00:00	84.7%	68.5%	46.7%	86.5%	20.7%
2026-09-24T12:44:01+00:00	84.7%	68.5%	46.7%	86.5%	20.7%
2026-09-24T13:29:16+00:00	86.8%	68.5%	46.7%	86.5%	20.7%
2026-09-24T14:16:40+00:00	86.3%	68.5%	46.7%	86.4%	20.7%
2026-09-24T15:01:50+00:00	86.3%	59.2%	46.7%	86.4%	20.7%
2026-09-24T15:47:17+00:00	86.3%	59.2%	46.7%	86.4%	20.7%
2026-09-24T16:32:27+00:00	86.3%	59.2%	46.7%	86.4%	20.7%
2026-09-24T17:17:32+00:00	86.3%	59.2%	42.7%	86.4%	20.7%
2026-09-24T18:02:38+00:00	86.3%	59.2%	42.7%	86.4%	20.7%
2026-09-24T18:47:43+00:00	86.3%	59.2%	42.7%	86.4%	20.7%
2026-09-24T19:32:51+00:00	88.2%	59.2%	42.7%	86.4%	75.3%
2026-09-24T20:18:00+00:00	88.2%	59.2%	42.7%	86.4%	75.3%
2026-09-24T21:03:05+00:00	88.2%	59.2%	42.7%	86.4%	75.3%
2026-09-24T21:48:11+00:00	88.2%	59.2%	42.7%	86.4%	75.3%
2026-09-24T22:33:17+00:00	88.2%	59.2%	42.7%	84.2%	75.3%
2026-09-24T23:18:23+00:00	88.2%	59.2%	41.8%	84.2%	75.3%
2026-09-25T00:03:29+00:00	88.2%	59.2%	41.8%	84.2%	75.3%
2026-09-25T00:48:40+00:00	88.2%	59.2%	41.8%	84.2%	75.3%
2026-09-25T01:33:50+00:00	84.3%	59.2%	41.8%	84.2%	75.3%
2026-09-25T02:18:57+00:00	84.3%	59.2%	41.8%	84.2%	75.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	84%	90.1°F	5.6°F	2026-09-24 18:00	0.0246
IFS HRES	84%	90.9°F	6.4°F	2026-09-24 12:00	0.0250
ICON	75%	91.2°F	9.8°F	2026-09-24 12:00	0.0610
IFS Ensemble	59%	85.2°F	3.0°F	2026-09-24 00:00	0.1665
National Blend	54%	85.0°F	5.3°F	2026-09-23 06:00	0.2134
WeatherNext 2	42%	83.5°F	4.9°F	2026-09-24 12:00	0.3387

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 85°F · KRDU

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRDU-20261001-TMAX-GE85
Opened Sep 24 · 07:27 UTC

Original listing: Raleigh high ≥ 85°F · Thu Oct 1

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗