KRDU / Thu Oct 1 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Raleigh, NCHigh ≥ 89°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 01 · 06:57 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

55%

31%

25%

12%

Consensus

29%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 30.6¢Risks 30.55u

WN2NO 69.5¢Risks 69.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +69.45u · WN2 −69.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.5%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	7.3%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	7.7%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	7.3%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	5.2%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	5.8%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	5.3%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	9.1%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	6.5%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	24.1%	—	—	—	—	5.9%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	22.1%	—	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	22.5%	—	—	—	—	8.8%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	20.9%	—	33.0%	—	—	13.8%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	11.9%	—	37.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	0.6%	—	—	13.0%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	26.8%	—	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	35.3%	—	—	13.5%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	34.4%	—	50.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	44.8%	—	—	23.6%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	22.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	36.7%	0.3%	6.2%	—	—	30.0%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	39.8%	—	66.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	43.7%	—	57.0%	1.7%	—	29.2%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	36.0%	—	59.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	26.6%	31.7%	47.1%	14.8%	—	25.4%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	30.0%	—	60.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	37.2%	23.9%	77.2%	7.0%	—	30.3%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	40.7%	—	65.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	29.5%	23.6%	67.7%	13.1%	—	33.0%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	27.0%	0.0%	61.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	27.9%	15.2%	62.3%	14.8%	—	30.0%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	28.1%	20.1%	58.5%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	29.1%	32.2%	49.1%	9.7%	—	39.6%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	26.4%	29.4%	42.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	29.7%	26.6%	42.7%	13.4%	—	27.4%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	35.2%	44.3%	—	—	31.8%
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	28.7%	40.4%	47.1%	9.8%	—	31.3%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	23.4%	37.2%	49.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	24.3%	34.0%	51.0%	14.5%	—	23.5%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	24.5%	43.7%	45.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	23.8%	41.3%	39.2%	14.9%	—	26.4%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	24.9%	34.6%	41.0%	0.0%	—	25.8%
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	20.7%	34.1%	40.8%	14.0%	23.3%	22.4%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	20.8%	30.4%	45.2%	13.9%	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	19.9%	24.6%	42.6%	13.7%	13.7%	19.1%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	14.3%	18.2%	48.7%	10.9%	—	0.0%
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	14.1%	17.3%	48.7%	11.3%	11.3%	11.3%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	15.6%	21.1%	45.8%	6.7%	—	10.4%
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	15.4%	24.5%	44.2%	4.7%	8.9%	6.8%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	9.9%	13.6%	35.2%	3.4%	—	3.4%
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	11.7%	12.5%	37.6%	3.4%	7.7%	2.9%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	24.1%	21.6%	4.1%	—	1.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	59%	89.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-01 02:00	0.1681
AIFS Single	55%	89.0°F	4.0°F	2026-09-30 18:00	0.2034
National Blend	43%	88.1°F	2.2°F	2026-10-01 00:00	0.3260
IFS HRES	31%	86.6°F	3.7°F	2026-09-30 12:00	0.4816
IFS Ensemble	25%	86.5°F	3.0°F	2026-09-30 00:00	0.5595
ICON	12%	84.4°F	3.5°F	2026-09-30 12:00	0.7726
WeatherNext 2	6%	83.2°F	3.4°F	2026-09-30 18:00	0.8798

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 89°F · KRDU

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRDU-20261001-TMAX-GE89
Opened Sep 25 · 18:08 UTC

Original listing: Raleigh high ≥ 89°F · Thu Oct 1

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗