KRDU / Thu Oct 1 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Raleigh, NCHigh ≥ 89°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 01 · 06:57 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

55%

31%

25%

12%

Consensus

29%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 30.6¢Risks 30.55u

WN2NO 69.5¢Risks 69.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +69.45u · WN2 −69.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-01T06:57:23+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-25T18:08:42+00:00	56.7%	3.5%	16.6%	64.7%	46.5%
2026-09-25T18:54:06+00:00	56.7%	3.5%	16.6%	64.7%	46.5%
2026-09-25T19:39:25+00:00	63.9%	3.5%	16.6%	45.8%	46.5%
2026-09-25T20:25:16+00:00	63.9%	3.5%	16.6%	45.8%	46.5%
2026-09-25T21:10:22+00:00	63.9%	3.5%	16.6%	45.8%	46.5%
2026-09-25T21:55:27+00:00	63.9%	3.5%	16.6%	45.8%	46.5%
2026-09-25T22:40:32+00:00	63.9%	3.5%	16.6%	45.8%	46.5%
2026-09-25T23:25:37+00:00	63.9%	3.5%	17.2%	45.8%	46.5%
2026-09-26T00:10:43+00:00	63.9%	3.5%	17.2%	45.8%	46.5%
2026-09-26T00:55:51+00:00	63.9%	3.5%	17.2%	45.8%	46.5%
2026-09-26T01:41:03+00:00	66.7%	3.5%	17.2%	45.8%	46.5%
2026-09-26T02:26:19+00:00	66.7%	3.5%	17.2%	45.8%	46.5%
2026-09-26T03:11:42+00:00	66.7%	3.5%	17.2%	45.8%	46.5%
2026-09-26T03:56:56+00:00	66.7%	3.5%	17.2%	45.8%	46.5%
2026-09-26T04:42:03+00:00	66.7%	3.5%	17.2%	45.8%	40.5%
2026-09-26T05:27:16+00:00	66.7%	3.5%	18.9%	45.8%	40.5%
2026-09-26T06:12:24+00:00	66.7%	3.5%	18.9%	45.8%	40.5%
2026-09-26T06:57:30+00:00	66.7%	3.5%	18.9%	45.8%	40.5%
2026-09-26T07:42:50+00:00	57.2%	3.5%	18.9%	51.4%	40.5%
2026-09-26T08:28:39+00:00	57.2%	3.5%	18.9%	51.4%	40.5%
2026-09-26T09:13:45+00:00	57.2%	3.5%	18.9%	51.4%	40.5%
2026-09-26T09:58:51+00:00	57.2%	3.5%	18.9%	51.4%	40.5%
2026-09-26T10:44:03+00:00	57.2%	3.5%	18.9%	51.4%	40.5%
2026-09-26T11:29:16+00:00	57.2%	24.1%	13.2%	51.4%	40.5%
2026-09-26T12:14:29+00:00	57.2%	24.1%	13.2%	51.4%	40.5%
2026-09-26T12:59:34+00:00	57.2%	24.1%	13.2%	51.4%	40.5%
2026-09-26T13:44:42+00:00	54.8%	24.1%	13.2%	51.4%	40.5%
2026-09-26T14:32:06+00:00	54.8%	24.1%	13.2%	51.4%	40.5%
2026-09-26T15:17:29+00:00	54.8%	25.2%	13.2%	51.4%	40.5%
2026-09-26T16:02:34+00:00	54.8%	25.2%	13.2%	51.4%	40.5%
2026-09-26T16:47:41+00:00	54.8%	25.2%	13.2%	51.4%	32.2%
2026-09-26T17:32:50+00:00	54.8%	25.2%	13.2%	51.4%	32.2%
2026-09-26T18:17:58+00:00	54.8%	25.2%	13.2%	51.4%	32.2%
2026-09-26T19:03:07+00:00	54.8%	25.2%	13.2%	51.4%	32.2%
2026-09-26T19:48:17+00:00	56.4%	25.2%	13.2%	50.7%	32.2%
2026-09-26T20:33:26+00:00	56.4%	25.2%	13.2%	50.7%	32.2%
2026-09-26T21:18:32+00:00	56.4%	25.2%	13.2%	50.7%	32.2%
2026-09-26T22:03:37+00:00	56.4%	25.2%	13.2%	50.7%	32.2%
2026-09-26T22:48:43+00:00	56.4%	25.2%	13.2%	50.7%	32.2%
2026-09-26T23:33:53+00:00	56.4%	25.2%	10.8%	50.7%	32.2%
2026-09-27T00:19:02+00:00	56.4%	25.2%	10.8%	50.7%	32.2%
2026-09-27T01:04:10+00:00	56.4%	25.2%	10.8%	50.7%	32.2%
2026-09-27T01:49:24+00:00	57.2%	25.2%	10.8%	50.7%	32.2%
2026-09-27T02:34:31+00:00	57.2%	25.2%	10.8%	50.7%	32.2%
2026-09-27T03:19:42+00:00	57.2%	25.2%	10.8%	50.7%	32.2%
2026-09-27T04:05:13+00:00	57.2%	25.2%	10.8%	50.7%	32.2%
2026-09-27T04:50:19+00:00	57.2%	25.2%	10.8%	50.7%	43.3%
2026-09-27T05:35:27+00:00	57.2%	25.2%	15.3%	50.7%	43.3%
2026-09-27T06:20:37+00:00	57.2%	25.2%	15.3%	50.7%	43.3%
2026-09-27T07:05:43+00:00	57.2%	25.2%	15.3%	50.7%	43.3%
2026-09-27T07:51:02+00:00	60.2%	25.2%	15.3%	51.6%	43.3%
2026-09-27T08:36:50+00:00	60.2%	25.2%	15.3%	51.6%	43.3%
2026-09-27T09:21:58+00:00	60.2%	25.2%	15.3%	51.6%	43.3%
2026-09-27T10:07:03+00:00	60.2%	25.2%	15.3%	51.6%	43.3%
2026-09-27T10:52:08+00:00	60.2%	25.2%	15.3%	51.6%	43.3%
2026-09-27T11:37:16+00:00	60.2%	37.4%	9.3%	51.6%	43.3%
2026-09-27T12:22:25+00:00	60.2%	37.4%	9.3%	51.6%	43.3%
2026-09-27T13:07:32+00:00	60.2%	37.4%	9.3%	51.6%	43.3%
2026-09-27T13:52:39+00:00	56.8%	37.4%	9.3%	51.6%	44.1%
2026-09-28T03:27:28+00:00	61.0%	42.1%	5.5%	44.5%	39.2%
2026-09-28T04:13:28+00:00	61.0%	42.1%	5.5%	44.5%	39.2%
2026-09-28T04:58:34+00:00	61.0%	42.1%	6.4%	44.5%	44.9%
2026-09-28T05:43:42+00:00	61.0%	42.1%	6.4%	44.5%	44.9%
2026-09-28T06:28:54+00:00	61.0%	42.1%	6.4%	44.5%	44.9%
2026-09-28T07:13:59+00:00	61.0%	42.1%	6.4%	44.5%	44.9%
2026-09-28T07:59:19+00:00	61.7%	42.1%	6.4%	44.7%	44.9%
2026-09-28T08:45:27+00:00	61.7%	42.1%	6.4%	44.7%	44.9%
2026-09-28T09:30:32+00:00	61.7%	42.1%	6.4%	44.7%	44.9%
2026-09-28T10:15:38+00:00	61.7%	42.1%	6.4%	44.7%	44.9%
2026-09-28T11:00:46+00:00	61.7%	30.4%	5.2%	44.7%	44.9%
2026-09-28T11:46:05+00:00	61.7%	30.4%	5.2%	44.7%	44.9%
2026-09-28T12:31:11+00:00	61.7%	30.4%	5.2%	44.7%	44.9%
2026-09-28T13:16:20+00:00	61.7%	30.4%	5.2%	44.7%	44.9%
2026-09-28T14:01:27+00:00	57.3%	30.4%	5.2%	44.7%	44.9%
2026-09-28T14:48:32+00:00	57.3%	30.4%	5.2%	44.7%	44.9%
2026-09-28T15:34:01+00:00	57.3%	33.2%	5.2%	44.7%	44.9%
2026-09-28T16:19:07+00:00	57.3%	33.2%	5.2%	44.7%	44.9%
2026-09-28T17:04:13+00:00	57.3%	33.2%	4.2%	44.7%	38.9%
2026-09-28T17:49:22+00:00	57.3%	33.2%	4.2%	44.7%	38.9%
2026-09-28T18:34:28+00:00	57.3%	33.2%	4.2%	44.7%	38.9%
2026-09-28T19:19:33+00:00	57.3%	33.2%	4.2%	44.7%	38.9%
2026-09-28T20:04:43+00:00	58.2%	33.2%	4.2%	36.1%	38.9%
2026-09-28T20:49:49+00:00	58.2%	33.2%	4.2%	36.1%	38.9%
2026-09-28T21:34:54+00:00	58.2%	33.2%	4.2%	36.1%	38.9%
2026-09-28T22:19:57+00:00	58.2%	33.2%	4.2%	36.1%	38.9%
2026-09-28T23:05:03+00:00	58.2%	33.2%	3.3%	36.1%	38.9%
2026-09-28T23:50:09+00:00	58.2%	33.2%	3.3%	36.1%	38.9%
2026-09-29T00:35:17+00:00	58.2%	33.2%	3.3%	36.1%	38.9%
2026-09-29T01:20:26+00:00	58.2%	33.2%	3.3%	36.1%	38.9%
2026-09-29T02:05:36+00:00	59.1%	33.2%	3.3%	36.1%	38.9%
2026-09-29T02:51:00+00:00	59.1%	33.2%	3.3%	36.1%	38.9%
2026-09-29T03:36:05+00:00	59.1%	33.2%	3.3%	36.1%	38.9%
2026-09-29T15:42:14+00:00	60.4%	29.7%	5.5%	41.3%	36.7%
2026-09-29T16:27:40+00:00	60.4%	29.7%	5.5%	41.3%	30.5%
2026-09-29T17:12:50+00:00	60.4%	29.7%	3.4%	41.3%	30.5%
2026-09-29T17:57:58+00:00	60.4%	29.7%	3.4%	41.3%	30.5%
2026-09-29T18:43:04+00:00	60.4%	29.7%	3.4%	41.3%	30.5%
2026-09-29T19:28:13+00:00	56.7%	29.7%	3.4%	39.4%	30.5%
2026-09-29T20:13:31+00:00	56.7%	29.7%	3.4%	39.4%	30.5%
2026-09-29T20:58:46+00:00	56.7%	29.7%	3.4%	39.4%	30.5%
2026-09-29T21:43:55+00:00	56.7%	29.7%	3.4%	39.4%	30.5%
2026-09-29T22:29:01+00:00	56.7%	29.7%	3.4%	39.4%	30.5%
2026-09-29T23:14:11+00:00	56.7%	29.7%	3.2%	39.4%	30.5%
2026-09-29T23:59:27+00:00	56.7%	29.7%	3.2%	39.4%	30.5%
2026-09-30T00:44:32+00:00	56.7%	29.7%	3.2%	39.4%	30.5%
2026-09-30T01:29:50+00:00	57.6%	29.7%	3.2%	39.4%	30.5%
2026-09-30T02:14:58+00:00	57.6%	29.7%	3.2%	39.4%	30.5%
2026-09-30T03:00:07+00:00	57.6%	29.7%	3.2%	39.4%	30.5%
2026-09-30T03:45:21+00:00	57.6%	29.7%	3.2%	39.4%	30.5%
2026-09-30T04:30:33+00:00	57.6%	29.7%	3.2%	39.4%	16.0%
2026-09-30T05:16:19+00:00	57.6%	29.7%	4.8%	39.4%	16.0%
2026-09-30T06:01:27+00:00	57.6%	29.7%	4.8%	39.4%	16.0%
2026-09-30T06:46:35+00:00	57.6%	29.7%	4.8%	39.4%	16.0%
2026-09-30T07:31:51+00:00	57.6%	29.7%	4.8%	35.4%	16.0%
2026-09-30T08:18:12+00:00	57.6%	29.7%	4.8%	35.4%	16.0%
2026-09-30T09:03:33+00:00	57.6%	29.7%	4.8%	35.4%	16.0%
2026-09-30T09:48:39+00:00	57.6%	29.7%	4.8%	35.4%	16.0%
2026-09-30T10:34:20+00:00	57.8%	29.7%	4.8%	35.4%	16.0%
2026-09-30T11:19:57+00:00	57.8%	25.2%	3.5%	35.4%	16.0%
2026-09-30T12:05:13+00:00	57.8%	25.2%	3.5%	35.4%	16.0%
2026-09-30T12:50:19+00:00	57.8%	25.2%	3.5%	35.4%	16.0%
2026-09-30T13:35:24+00:00	52.0%	25.2%	3.5%	35.4%	16.0%
2026-09-30T14:23:07+00:00	52.0%	25.2%	3.6%	35.4%	15.9%
2026-09-30T15:08:14+00:00	52.0%	25.2%	3.6%	35.4%	15.9%
2026-09-30T15:53:26+00:00	52.0%	25.2%	3.6%	35.4%	15.9%
2026-09-30T16:38:48+00:00	52.0%	25.2%	3.6%	35.4%	12.1%
2026-09-30T17:23:56+00:00	52.0%	25.2%	2.2%	35.4%	12.1%
2026-09-30T18:09:03+00:00	52.0%	25.2%	2.2%	35.4%	12.1%
2026-09-30T18:54:12+00:00	52.0%	25.2%	2.2%	35.4%	12.1%
2026-09-30T19:39:18+00:00	53.0%	25.2%	2.2%	30.6%	12.1%
2026-09-30T20:24:32+00:00	53.0%	25.2%	2.2%	30.6%	12.1%
2026-09-30T21:09:37+00:00	53.0%	25.2%	2.2%	30.6%	12.1%
2026-09-30T21:54:43+00:00	53.0%	25.2%	2.2%	30.6%	12.1%
2026-09-30T22:39:49+00:00	53.0%	25.2%	2.2%	30.6%	12.1%
2026-09-30T23:24:55+00:00	53.0%	25.2%	2.1%	30.6%	12.1%
2026-10-01T00:10:09+00:00	53.0%	25.2%	2.1%	30.6%	12.1%
2026-10-01T00:55:49+00:00	53.0%	25.2%	2.1%	30.6%	12.1%
2026-10-01T01:40:54+00:00	54.9%	25.2%	2.1%	30.6%	12.1%
2026-10-01T02:26:02+00:00	54.9%	25.2%	2.1%	30.6%	12.1%
2026-10-01T03:11:17+00:00	54.9%	25.2%	2.1%	30.6%	12.1%
2026-10-01T03:57:03+00:00	54.9%	25.2%	2.1%	30.6%	12.1%
2026-10-01T04:42:08+00:00	54.9%	25.2%	2.1%	30.6%	12.1%
2026-10-01T05:27:13+00:00	54.9%	25.2%	6.2%	30.6%	12.1%
2026-10-01T06:12:18+00:00	54.9%	25.2%	6.2%	30.6%	12.1%
2026-10-01T06:57:23+00:00	54.9%	25.2%	6.2%	30.6%	12.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	59%	89.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-01 02:00	0.1681
AIFS Single	55%	89.0°F	4.0°F	2026-09-30 18:00	0.2034
National Blend	43%	88.1°F	2.2°F	2026-10-01 00:00	0.3260
IFS HRES	31%	86.6°F	3.7°F	2026-09-30 12:00	0.4816
IFS Ensemble	25%	86.5°F	3.0°F	2026-09-30 00:00	0.5595
ICON	12%	84.4°F	3.5°F	2026-09-30 12:00	0.7726
WeatherNext 2	6%	83.2°F	3.4°F	2026-09-30 18:00	0.8798

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 89°F · KRDU

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRDU-20261001-TMAX-GE89
Opened Sep 25 · 18:08 UTC

Original listing: Raleigh high ≥ 89°F · Thu Oct 1

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗