KRDU / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Raleigh, NCHigh ≥ 63°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 11 · 10:33 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

80%

78%

75%

30%

Consensus

66%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 54.6¢Risks 54.65u

AIFSNO 45.4¢Risks 45.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +45.35u · AIFS −45.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	86.0%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	92.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	95.3%	—	—	—	—	89.5%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	93.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	87.7%	—	—	—	—	90.2%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	85.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	82.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	83.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	69.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	73.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	97.9%	—	—	—	—	76.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	78.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	61.9%	—	—	—	—	72.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	84.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	98.3%	—	—	—	—	73.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	17.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	85.2%	—	—	—	—	68.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	23.7%	—	23.3%	—	—	71.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	13.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	20.6%	—	99.2%	—	—	58.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	8.2%	—	23.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	23.1%	—	25.7%	—	—	59.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	5.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	12.1%	—	9.9%	—	—	41.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	6.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	60.4%	52.8%	13.4%	34.3%	—	54.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	70.5%	—	30.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	65.0%	75.7%	42.0%	42.0%	—	64.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	48.5%	—	53.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	55.3%	96.7%	51.5%	56.8%	—	59.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	45.2%	68.4%	64.1%	51.6%	—	49.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	41.9%	1.4%	79.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	44.2%	81.0%	85.2%	53.3%	—	42.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	30.3%	66.6%	85.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	31.4%	58.7%	84.9%	27.7%	—	16.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	35.1%	42.9%	71.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	39.1%	28.9%	64.4%	2.1%	—	12.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	45.3%	37.9%	60.3%	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	32.1%	26.3%	51.9%	2.7%	—	14.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	53.0%	41.1%	58.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	38.8%	41.8%	36.9%	40.8%	—	19.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	34.5%	22.8%	18.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	32.1%	40.3%	11.9%	37.1%	—	5.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	38.9%	32.6%	7.1%	0.0%	—	12.9%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	33.1%	34.1%	19.9%	33.1%	—	21.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	34.7%	38.1%	22.5%	27.3%	—	19.9%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	37.7%	43.8%	24.6%	23.6%	2.0%	18.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	39.8%	30.2%	20.0%	—	18.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	38.1%	34.3%	33.1%	19.1%	3.7%	19.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	40.3%	27.6%	32.5%	16.4%	—	19.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	41.4%	26.8%	44.2%	15.4%	3.2%	21.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	31.1%	24.8%	39.5%	13.6%	—	12.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	29.0%	18.1%	42.1%	18.1%	1.8%	12.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	22.8%	35.5%	20.3%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	80%	67.8°F	6.3°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.6368
IFS Ensemble	78%	67.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-10 00:00	0.6037
WeatherNext 2	75%	66.1°F	5.3°F	2026-10-10 18:00	0.5655
National Blend	53%	63.0°F	7.7°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.2767
AIFS Single	30%	59.5°F	5.6°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.0870

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 63°F · KRDU

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRDU-20261018-TMAX-GE63
Opened Oct 11 · 07:31 UTC

Original listing: Raleigh high ≥ 63°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗