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KRDU / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Raleigh, NCHigh ≥ 63°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 11 · 10:33 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
80%
EPS
78%
WN2
75%
AIFS
30%
Consensus
66%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 54.6¢Risks 54.65u
VS
AIFSNO 45.4¢Risks 45.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +45.35u · AIFS −45.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 29.5% · 2026-10-11T07:31:41+00:00AIFS Single: 29.5% · 2026-10-11T08:18:01+00:00AIFS Single: 29.5% · 2026-10-11T09:03:07+00:00AIFS Single: 29.5% · 2026-10-11T09:48:15+00:00AIFS Single: 29.5% · 2026-10-11T10:33:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 77.7% · 2026-10-11T07:31:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 77.7% · 2026-10-11T08:18:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 77.7% · 2026-10-11T09:03:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 77.7% · 2026-10-11T09:48:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 77.7% · 2026-10-11T10:33:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.2% · 2026-10-11T07:31:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.2% · 2026-10-11T08:18:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.2% · 2026-10-11T09:03:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.2% · 2026-10-11T09:48:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.2% · 2026-10-11T10:33:36+00:00IFS HRES: 79.8% · 2026-10-11T07:31:41+00:00IFS HRES: 79.8% · 2026-10-11T08:18:01+00:00IFS HRES: 79.8% · 2026-10-11T09:03:07+00:00IFS HRES: 79.8% · 2026-10-11T09:48:15+00:00IFS HRES: 79.8% · 2026-10-11T10:33:36+00:0010-11 07:3110-11 09:0310-11 10:33
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRES
2026-10-11T10:33:36+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRES
2026-10-11T07:31:41+00:0029.5%77.7%75.2%79.8%
2026-10-11T08:18:01+00:0029.5%77.7%75.2%79.8%
2026-10-11T09:03:07+00:0029.5%77.7%75.2%79.8%
2026-10-11T09:48:15+00:0029.5%77.7%75.2%79.8%
2026-10-11T10:33:36+00:0029.5%77.7%75.2%79.8%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES80%67.8°F6.3°F2026-10-11 00:000.6368
IFS Ensemble78%67.0°F5.9°F2026-10-10 00:000.6037
WeatherNext 275%66.1°F5.3°F2026-10-10 18:000.5655
National Blend53%63.0°F7.7°F2026-10-11 00:000.2767
AIFS Single30%59.5°F5.6°F2026-10-11 00:000.0870

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 63°F · KRDU

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRDU-20261018-TMAX-GE63
Opened Oct 11 · 07:31 UTC

Original listing: Raleigh high ≥ 63°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗