KRDU / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Raleigh, NCHigh ≤ 61°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

66%

56%

43%

22%

16%

Consensus

50%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 41.0¢Risks 41.00u

AIFSNO 59.0¢Risks 59.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +59.00u · AIFS −59.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	89.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—	57.9%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	8.3%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	7.7%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	83.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	83.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	20.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	17.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	21.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	79.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	11.7%	—	—	—	—	26.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	63.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	71.3%	—	71.8%	—	—	23.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	82.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	74.6%	—	0.5%	—	—	35.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	89.1%	—	71.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	71.6%	—	68.8%	—	—	34.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	69.7%	—	92.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	84.1%	—	86.8%	—	—	51.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	72.2%	—	91.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	40.3%	82.5%	59.1%	—	38.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	63.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	28.5%	18.9%	50.7%	50.7%	—	29.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	44.0%	—	39.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	37.2%	2.1%	40.9%	35.8%	—	33.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	31.2%	—	42.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	46.8%	24.8%	28.8%	40.5%	—	42.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	97.6%	14.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	47.5%	13.8%	10.4%	38.5%	—	49.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	61.8%	26.0%	9.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	60.4%	33.0%	10.5%	64.6%	—	77.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	56.3%	48.2%	21.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	51.8%	62.7%	27.4%	96.4%	—	82.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	45.3%	52.8%	30.9%	—	—	85.7%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	65.2%	38.5%	95.4%	—	79.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	37.2%	49.0%	31.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	51.0%	47.9%	53.1%	49.0%	—	73.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	55.3%	68.4%	73.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	57.6%	48.9%	81.7%	52.2%	—	90.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	56.7%	88.2%	99.9%	—	80.2%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	55.8%	54.6%	71.0%	55.8%	—	69.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	53.6%	50.0%	67.5%	61.9%	—	70.7%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	43.8%	64.6%	65.8%	96.0%	72.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	48.7%	47.4%	57.7%	69.8%	—	72.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	48.7%	52.7%	54.0%	70.5%	92.6%	70.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	45.8%	59.7%	54.2%	73.5%	—	70.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	44.2%	60.1%	41.4%	74.4%	93.2%	66.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	54.5%	61.9%	45.5%	76.4%	—	78.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	56.3%	69.7%	42.1%	69.7%	95.6%	77.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	63.0%	48.4%	66.1%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	76%	60.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	0.5730
ICON	66%	60.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.4422
National Blend	59%	61.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.3457
IFS HRES	56%	60.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.3181
IFS Ensemble	43%	62.1°F	3.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.1823
WeatherNext 2	22%	63.7°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0506
AIFS Single	16%	65.5°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0240

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 61°F · KRDU

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRDU-20261018-TMAX-LE61
Opened Oct 14 · 10:32 UTC

Original listing: Raleigh stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 61°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗