KRDU / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Raleigh, NCHigh ≤ 61°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

66%

56%

43%

22%

16%

Consensus

50%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 41.0¢Risks 41.00u

AIFSNO 59.0¢Risks 59.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +59.00u · AIFS −59.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T07:15:32+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T10:32:23+00:00	28.6%	28.0%	19.8%	62.6%	22.8%
2026-10-14T11:20:40+00:00	28.6%	50.0%	30.5%	62.6%	22.8%
2026-10-14T12:06:11+00:00	28.6%	50.0%	30.5%	62.6%	22.8%
2026-10-14T12:51:19+00:00	28.6%	50.0%	30.5%	62.6%	22.8%
2026-10-14T13:36:26+00:00	25.0%	50.0%	30.5%	62.6%	22.8%
2026-10-14T14:26:49+00:00	25.0%	50.0%	30.5%	62.6%	22.2%
2026-10-14T15:12:06+00:00	25.0%	48.7%	30.5%	62.6%	22.2%
2026-10-14T15:57:53+00:00	25.0%	48.7%	30.5%	62.6%	22.2%
2026-10-14T16:43:02+00:00	25.0%	48.7%	30.5%	62.6%	22.2%
2026-10-14T17:28:10+00:00	25.0%	48.7%	40.4%	62.6%	22.2%
2026-10-14T18:13:19+00:00	25.0%	48.7%	40.4%	62.6%	22.2%
2026-10-14T18:58:25+00:00	25.0%	48.7%	40.4%	62.6%	22.2%
2026-10-14T19:43:32+00:00	21.7%	48.7%	40.4%	82.1%	47.5%
2026-10-14T20:28:48+00:00	21.7%	48.7%	40.4%	82.1%	47.5%
2026-10-14T21:13:55+00:00	21.7%	48.7%	40.4%	82.1%	47.5%
2026-10-14T21:59:01+00:00	21.7%	48.7%	40.4%	82.1%	47.5%
2026-10-14T22:44:08+00:00	21.7%	48.7%	40.4%	82.1%	47.5%
2026-10-14T23:29:31+00:00	21.7%	48.7%	40.4%	82.1%	47.5%
2026-10-15T00:14:39+00:00	21.7%	48.7%	40.4%	82.1%	47.5%
2026-10-15T01:01:09+00:00	21.7%	48.7%	40.4%	82.1%	47.5%
2026-10-15T01:46:16+00:00	17.5%	48.7%	40.4%	82.1%	47.5%
2026-10-15T02:31:28+00:00	17.5%	48.7%	40.4%	82.1%	47.5%
2026-10-15T03:16:36+00:00	17.5%	48.7%	40.4%	82.1%	47.5%
2026-10-15T04:01:55+00:00	17.5%	48.7%	40.4%	82.1%	47.5%
2026-10-15T04:47:52+00:00	17.5%	48.7%	40.4%	82.1%	47.5%
2026-10-15T05:33:16+00:00	17.5%	48.7%	25.9%	82.1%	47.5%
2026-10-15T06:18:26+00:00	17.5%	48.7%	25.9%	82.1%	47.5%
2026-10-15T07:03:34+00:00	17.5%	48.7%	25.9%	82.1%	47.5%
2026-10-15T07:49:13+00:00	24.2%	48.7%	25.9%	59.7%	59.0%
2026-10-15T08:35:49+00:00	24.2%	48.7%	25.9%	59.7%	59.0%
2026-10-15T09:21:43+00:00	24.2%	48.7%	25.9%	59.7%	59.0%
2026-10-15T10:07:29+00:00	24.2%	48.7%	25.9%	59.7%	59.0%
2026-10-15T10:52:49+00:00	24.2%	48.7%	25.9%	59.7%	59.0%
2026-10-15T11:39:10+00:00	24.2%	48.7%	29.7%	59.7%	59.0%
2026-10-15T12:24:49+00:00	24.2%	57.1%	29.7%	59.7%	59.0%
2026-10-15T13:10:10+00:00	24.2%	57.1%	29.7%	59.7%	59.0%
2026-10-15T13:55:48+00:00	12.1%	57.0%	29.7%	59.7%	59.0%
2026-10-15T14:48:23+00:00	12.1%	57.0%	29.7%	59.7%	59.0%
2026-10-15T15:33:49+00:00	12.1%	54.8%	29.7%	59.7%	59.0%
2026-10-15T16:19:57+00:00	12.1%	54.8%	29.7%	59.7%	59.0%
2026-10-15T17:05:20+00:00	12.1%	54.8%	14.3%	59.7%	59.0%
2026-10-15T17:50:37+00:00	12.1%	54.8%	14.3%	59.7%	59.0%
2026-10-15T18:35:58+00:00	12.1%	54.8%	14.3%	59.7%	59.0%
2026-10-15T19:21:06+00:00	12.1%	54.8%	14.3%	59.7%	59.0%
2026-10-15T20:06:14+00:00	19.4%	54.8%	14.3%	58.0%	41.0%
2026-10-15T20:51:27+00:00	19.4%	54.8%	14.3%	58.0%	41.0%
2026-10-15T21:36:41+00:00	19.4%	54.8%	14.3%	58.0%	41.0%
2026-10-15T22:21:48+00:00	19.4%	54.8%	14.3%	58.0%	41.0%
2026-10-15T23:07:01+00:00	19.4%	54.8%	23.8%	58.0%	41.0%
2026-10-15T23:52:13+00:00	19.4%	54.8%	23.8%	58.0%	41.0%
2026-10-16T00:37:21+00:00	19.4%	54.8%	23.8%	58.0%	41.0%
2026-10-16T01:22:41+00:00	22.0%	54.8%	23.8%	58.0%	41.0%
2026-10-16T02:08:15+00:00	22.0%	54.8%	23.8%	58.0%	41.0%
2026-10-16T02:53:28+00:00	22.0%	54.8%	23.8%	58.0%	41.0%
2026-10-16T03:38:38+00:00	22.0%	54.8%	23.8%	58.0%	41.0%
2026-10-16T04:23:57+00:00	22.0%	54.8%	23.8%	58.0%	41.0%
2026-10-16T05:10:24+00:00	22.0%	54.8%	23.8%	58.0%	41.0%
2026-10-16T05:55:52+00:00	22.0%	54.8%	23.8%	58.0%	41.0%
2026-10-16T06:41:02+00:00	22.0%	54.8%	23.8%	58.0%	41.0%
2026-10-16T07:26:13+00:00	23.1%	54.8%	23.8%	58.0%	52.3%
2026-10-16T08:11:22+00:00	23.1%	54.8%	23.8%	58.0%	52.3%
2026-10-16T08:56:33+00:00	23.1%	54.8%	23.8%	58.0%	52.3%
2026-10-16T09:41:41+00:00	23.1%	54.8%	23.8%	58.0%	52.3%
2026-10-16T10:26:47+00:00	23.1%	54.8%	23.8%	58.0%	52.3%
2026-10-16T11:12:08+00:00	23.1%	73.6%	37.4%	58.0%	52.3%
2026-10-16T11:57:36+00:00	23.1%	73.6%	37.4%	58.0%	52.3%
2026-10-16T12:42:48+00:00	23.1%	73.6%	37.4%	58.0%	52.3%
2026-10-16T13:28:07+00:00	18.2%	73.6%	37.4%	71.3%	52.3%
2026-10-16T14:19:41+00:00	18.2%	73.5%	37.4%	71.3%	52.3%
2026-10-16T15:05:15+00:00	18.2%	69.8%	37.4%	71.3%	52.3%
2026-10-16T15:50:54+00:00	18.2%	69.9%	37.4%	71.3%	52.3%
2026-10-16T16:36:09+00:00	18.2%	69.9%	37.4%	71.3%	52.3%
2026-10-16T17:21:17+00:00	18.2%	69.9%	25.9%	71.3%	52.3%
2026-10-16T18:06:36+00:00	18.2%	69.9%	25.9%	71.3%	52.3%
2026-10-16T18:51:41+00:00	18.2%	69.9%	25.9%	71.3%	52.3%
2026-10-16T19:36:55+00:00	21.6%	69.9%	25.9%	71.3%	57.8%
2026-10-16T20:22:22+00:00	21.6%	69.9%	25.9%	71.3%	57.8%
2026-10-16T21:07:45+00:00	21.6%	69.9%	25.9%	71.3%	57.8%
2026-10-16T21:52:51+00:00	21.6%	69.9%	25.9%	71.3%	57.8%
2026-10-16T22:37:59+00:00	21.6%	69.9%	25.9%	55.8%	57.8%
2026-10-16T23:23:21+00:00	21.6%	69.9%	28.1%	55.8%	57.8%
2026-10-17T00:08:53+00:00	21.6%	69.9%	28.1%	55.8%	57.8%
2026-10-17T00:54:56+00:00	21.6%	69.9%	28.1%	55.8%	57.8%
2026-10-17T01:40:05+00:00	20.2%	69.9%	28.1%	55.8%	57.8%
2026-10-17T02:25:18+00:00	20.2%	69.9%	28.1%	55.8%	57.8%
2026-10-17T03:10:27+00:00	20.2%	69.9%	28.1%	55.8%	57.8%
2026-10-17T03:55:36+00:00	20.2%	69.9%	28.1%	55.8%	57.8%
2026-10-17T04:41:14+00:00	20.2%	69.9%	28.1%	55.8%	57.8%
2026-10-17T05:28:21+00:00	20.2%	69.9%	27.0%	55.8%	57.8%
2026-10-17T06:13:34+00:00	20.2%	69.9%	27.0%	55.8%	57.8%
2026-10-17T06:58:44+00:00	20.2%	69.9%	27.0%	55.8%	57.8%
2026-10-17T07:44:06+00:00	17.4%	69.9%	27.0%	56.4%	59.0%
2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00	17.4%	69.9%	27.0%	56.4%	59.0%
2026-10-17T09:16:29+00:00	17.4%	69.9%	27.0%	56.4%	59.0%
2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00	17.4%	69.9%	27.0%	56.4%	59.0%
2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00	17.4%	69.9%	27.0%	56.4%	59.0%
2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:00	17.4%	47.5%	31.5%	56.4%	59.0%
2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00	17.4%	47.5%	31.5%	56.4%	59.0%
2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00	17.4%	47.5%	31.5%	56.4%	59.0%
2026-10-17T13:47:48+00:00	17.4%	47.5%	31.5%	56.4%	59.0%
2026-10-17T14:39:15+00:00	17.4%	47.6%	31.5%	56.4%	59.0%
2026-10-17T15:24:31+00:00	17.4%	42.7%	31.5%	56.4%	59.0%
2026-10-17T16:10:30+00:00	17.4%	42.7%	31.5%	56.4%	59.0%
2026-10-17T16:55:38+00:00	17.4%	42.7%	31.5%	56.4%	59.0%
2026-10-17T17:40:47+00:00	17.4%	42.7%	31.5%	56.4%	59.0%
2026-10-17T18:25:55+00:00	17.4%	42.7%	31.5%	56.4%	59.0%
2026-10-17T19:11:02+00:00	17.4%	42.7%	31.5%	56.4%	59.0%
2026-10-17T19:56:10+00:00	16.7%	42.7%	31.5%	56.4%	66.5%
2026-10-17T20:41:26+00:00	16.7%	42.7%	31.5%	56.4%	66.5%
2026-10-17T21:26:36+00:00	16.7%	42.7%	31.5%	56.4%	66.5%
2026-10-17T22:11:52+00:00	16.7%	42.7%	31.5%	56.4%	66.5%
2026-10-17T22:57:00+00:00	16.7%	42.7%	28.0%	56.4%	66.5%
2026-10-17T23:42:10+00:00	16.7%	42.7%	28.0%	56.4%	66.5%
2026-10-18T00:27:22+00:00	16.7%	42.7%	28.0%	56.4%	66.5%
2026-10-18T01:12:51+00:00	16.7%	42.7%	28.0%	56.4%	66.5%
2026-10-18T01:58:11+00:00	15.5%	42.7%	28.0%	56.4%	66.5%
2026-10-18T02:43:19+00:00	15.5%	42.7%	28.0%	56.4%	66.5%
2026-10-18T03:28:27+00:00	15.5%	42.7%	28.0%	56.4%	66.5%
2026-10-18T04:13:46+00:00	15.5%	42.7%	28.0%	56.4%	66.5%
2026-10-18T05:00:11+00:00	15.5%	42.7%	22.5%	56.4%	66.5%
2026-10-18T05:45:18+00:00	15.5%	42.7%	22.5%	56.4%	66.5%
2026-10-18T06:30:25+00:00	15.5%	42.7%	22.5%	56.4%	66.5%
2026-10-18T07:15:32+00:00	15.5%	42.7%	22.5%	56.4%	66.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	76%	60.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	0.5730
ICON	66%	60.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.4422
National Blend	59%	61.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.3457
IFS HRES	56%	60.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.3181
IFS Ensemble	43%	62.1°F	3.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.1823
WeatherNext 2	22%	63.7°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0506
AIFS Single	16%	65.5°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0240

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 61°F · KRDU

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRDU-20261018-TMAX-LE61
Opened Oct 14 · 10:32 UTC

Original listing: Raleigh stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 61°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗