KRDU / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Raleigh, NCHigh ≥ 71°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 15 · 03:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

50%

28%

26%

25%

Consensus

30%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 28.4¢Risks 28.40u

HRESNO 71.6¢Risks 71.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +71.60u · HRES −71.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	46.3%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	45.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	87.7%	—	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	93.6%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	9.0%	—	—	—	—	29.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	45.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	14.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	13.5%	—	—	—	—	39.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	5.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	53.6%	—	0.1%	—	—	39.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	1.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	20.6%	—	—	—	—	27.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	35.6%	—	10.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	68.8%	—	21.2%	—	—	44.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	56.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	24.9%	0.2%	59.4%	—	—	46.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	—	59.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	39.6%	33.6%	40.9%	1.8%	—	34.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	57.1%	—	62.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	51.5%	55.1%	53.6%	55.8%	—	35.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	40.4%	—	79.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	46.2%	62.0%	64.2%	30.3%	—	30.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	31.2%	—	79.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	28.1%	54.8%	84.6%	5.1%	—	15.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	29.7%	0.0%	74.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	15.7%	10.1%	61.5%	0.0%	—	5.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	21.4%	14.2%	61.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	7.0%	33.8%	0.0%	—	6.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	28.7%	16.6%	46.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	3.9%	5.8%	19.6%	8.6%	—	3.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	8.8%	17.7%	9.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	3.2%	9.4%	5.4%	11.6%	—	0.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	5.7%	9.2%	1.1%	—	—	0.6%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	9.0%	9.8%	7.1%	5.2%	—	3.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	13.2%	16.9%	6.5%	—	—	3.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	13.7%	12.5%	7.3%	2.8%	0.0%	4.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	18.3%	17.5%	8.3%	0.0%	—	5.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	11.0%	9.0%	8.1%	4.0%	1.2%	4.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	12.6%	4.8%	7.0%	2.7%	—	4.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	13.0%	3.0%	7.5%	2.0%	0.0%	3.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	6.8%	1.6%	4.3%	1.4%	—	1.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	5.0%	0.9%	2.8%	0.7%	0.4%	1.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	4.3%	1.8%	2.7%	0.6%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	3.5%	1.6%	2.7%	0.5%	0.8%	1.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	0.9%	5.6%	0.6%	—	0.4%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	0.5%	4.8%	0.4%	0.4%	0.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.0%	2.8%	0.6%	—	0.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	71.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-14 14:00	0.2894
AIFS Single	50%	70.5°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 18:00	0.2500
National Blend	45%	70.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.2061
ICON	28%	67.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0773
IFS Ensemble	26%	66.9°F	5.5°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0655
WeatherNext 2	25%	67.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0615
IFS HRES	7%	61.9°F	5.8°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0046

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KRDU

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRDU-20261019-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 12 · 11:35 UTC

Original listing: Raleigh high ≥ 71°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗