KRDU / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Raleigh, NCHigh ≥ 71°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 15 · 03:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

50%

28%

26%

25%

Consensus

30%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 28.4¢Risks 28.40u

HRESNO 71.6¢Risks 71.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +71.60u · HRES −71.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T03:16:36+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T11:35:24+00:00	47.9%	22.2%	57.2%	72.0%	9.9%
2026-10-12T12:20:46+00:00	47.9%	43.0%	57.2%	72.0%	9.9%
2026-10-12T13:05:54+00:00	47.9%	43.0%	57.2%	72.0%	9.9%
2026-10-12T13:51:04+00:00	65.3%	43.0%	57.2%	72.0%	9.9%
2026-10-12T14:41:16+00:00	65.2%	43.0%	57.2%	72.0%	10.0%
2026-10-12T15:26:49+00:00	65.2%	43.0%	57.2%	72.0%	10.0%
2026-10-12T16:12:55+00:00	65.2%	46.1%	57.2%	72.0%	10.0%
2026-10-12T16:58:02+00:00	65.2%	46.1%	64.9%	72.0%	10.0%
2026-10-12T17:43:12+00:00	65.2%	46.1%	64.9%	72.0%	10.0%
2026-10-12T18:28:19+00:00	65.2%	46.1%	64.9%	72.0%	10.0%
2026-10-12T19:13:25+00:00	65.2%	46.1%	64.9%	72.0%	10.0%
2026-10-12T19:58:31+00:00	64.6%	46.1%	64.9%	64.2%	58.4%
2026-10-12T20:43:41+00:00	64.6%	46.1%	64.9%	64.2%	58.4%
2026-10-12T21:28:48+00:00	64.6%	46.1%	64.9%	64.2%	58.4%
2026-10-12T22:13:55+00:00	64.6%	46.1%	64.9%	64.2%	58.4%
2026-10-12T22:59:07+00:00	64.6%	46.1%	75.3%	64.2%	58.4%
2026-10-12T23:44:17+00:00	64.6%	46.1%	75.3%	64.2%	58.4%
2026-10-13T00:29:23+00:00	64.6%	46.1%	75.3%	64.2%	58.4%
2026-10-13T01:14:38+00:00	64.6%	46.1%	75.3%	64.2%	58.4%
2026-10-13T01:59:46+00:00	78.8%	46.1%	75.3%	64.2%	58.4%
2026-10-13T02:44:55+00:00	78.8%	46.1%	75.3%	64.2%	58.4%
2026-10-13T03:30:00+00:00	78.8%	46.1%	75.3%	64.2%	58.4%
2026-10-13T15:41:23+00:00	66.1%	30.5%	57.8%	58.4%	72.9%
2026-10-13T16:27:01+00:00	66.1%	30.5%	57.8%	58.4%	72.9%
2026-10-13T17:12:08+00:00	66.1%	30.5%	63.7%	58.4%	72.9%
2026-10-13T17:57:16+00:00	66.1%	30.5%	63.7%	58.4%	72.9%
2026-10-13T18:42:22+00:00	66.1%	30.5%	63.7%	58.4%	72.9%
2026-10-13T19:27:27+00:00	70.8%	30.5%	63.7%	58.4%	77.0%
2026-10-13T20:12:33+00:00	70.8%	30.5%	63.7%	58.4%	77.0%
2026-10-13T20:57:42+00:00	70.8%	30.5%	63.7%	58.4%	77.0%
2026-10-13T21:43:05+00:00	70.8%	30.5%	63.7%	58.4%	77.0%
2026-10-13T22:28:23+00:00	70.8%	30.5%	63.7%	58.4%	77.0%
2026-10-13T23:13:33+00:00	70.8%	30.5%	71.4%	58.4%	77.0%
2026-10-13T23:58:43+00:00	70.8%	30.5%	71.4%	58.4%	77.0%
2026-10-14T00:43:52+00:00	70.8%	30.5%	71.4%	58.4%	77.0%
2026-10-14T01:29:08+00:00	58.2%	30.5%	71.4%	58.4%	77.0%
2026-10-14T02:14:17+00:00	58.2%	30.5%	71.4%	58.4%	77.0%
2026-10-14T02:59:31+00:00	58.2%	30.5%	71.4%	58.4%	77.0%
2026-10-14T03:45:27+00:00	58.2%	30.5%	71.4%	58.4%	77.0%
2026-10-14T04:30:44+00:00	58.2%	30.5%	71.4%	58.4%	77.0%
2026-10-14T05:15:51+00:00	58.2%	30.5%	71.4%	58.4%	77.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:58+00:00	58.2%	30.5%	71.4%	58.4%	77.0%
2026-10-14T06:46:12+00:00	58.2%	30.5%	71.4%	58.4%	77.0%
2026-10-14T07:31:25+00:00	54.8%	30.5%	71.4%	58.4%	70.7%
2026-10-14T08:16:33+00:00	54.8%	30.5%	71.4%	58.4%	70.7%
2026-10-14T09:01:44+00:00	54.8%	30.5%	71.4%	58.4%	70.7%
2026-10-14T09:46:51+00:00	54.8%	30.5%	71.4%	58.4%	70.7%
2026-10-14T10:32:23+00:00	54.8%	30.5%	71.4%	35.8%	70.7%
2026-10-14T11:20:40+00:00	54.8%	24.5%	38.5%	35.8%	70.7%
2026-10-14T12:06:11+00:00	54.8%	24.5%	38.5%	35.8%	70.7%
2026-10-14T12:51:19+00:00	54.8%	24.5%	38.5%	35.8%	70.7%
2026-10-14T13:36:26+00:00	58.0%	24.5%	38.5%	35.8%	70.7%
2026-10-14T14:26:49+00:00	58.0%	24.5%	38.5%	35.8%	70.5%
2026-10-14T15:12:06+00:00	58.0%	26.0%	38.5%	35.8%	70.5%
2026-10-14T15:57:53+00:00	58.0%	26.0%	38.5%	35.8%	70.5%
2026-10-14T16:43:02+00:00	58.0%	26.0%	38.5%	35.8%	70.5%
2026-10-14T17:28:10+00:00	58.0%	26.0%	28.0%	35.8%	70.5%
2026-10-14T18:13:19+00:00	58.0%	26.0%	28.0%	35.8%	70.5%
2026-10-14T18:58:25+00:00	58.0%	26.0%	28.0%	35.8%	70.5%
2026-10-14T19:43:32+00:00	42.0%	26.0%	28.0%	6.8%	27.8%
2026-10-14T20:28:48+00:00	42.0%	26.0%	28.0%	6.8%	27.8%
2026-10-14T21:13:55+00:00	42.0%	26.0%	28.0%	6.8%	27.8%
2026-10-14T21:59:01+00:00	42.0%	26.0%	28.0%	6.8%	27.8%
2026-10-14T22:44:08+00:00	42.0%	26.0%	28.0%	6.8%	27.8%
2026-10-14T23:29:31+00:00	42.0%	25.6%	24.8%	6.8%	27.8%
2026-10-15T00:14:39+00:00	42.0%	25.6%	24.8%	6.8%	27.8%
2026-10-15T01:01:09+00:00	42.0%	25.6%	24.8%	6.8%	27.8%
2026-10-15T01:46:16+00:00	50.0%	25.6%	24.8%	6.8%	27.8%
2026-10-15T02:31:28+00:00	50.0%	25.6%	24.8%	6.8%	27.8%
2026-10-15T03:16:36+00:00	50.0%	25.6%	24.8%	6.8%	27.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	71.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-14 14:00	0.2894
AIFS Single	50%	70.5°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 18:00	0.2500
National Blend	45%	70.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.2061
ICON	28%	67.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0773
IFS Ensemble	26%	66.9°F	5.5°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0655
WeatherNext 2	25%	67.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0615
IFS HRES	7%	61.9°F	5.8°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0046

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KRDU

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRDU-20261019-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 12 · 11:35 UTC

Original listing: Raleigh high ≥ 71°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗