KRDU / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Raleigh, NCHigh ≥ 74°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST28%Oct 15 · 10:52 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

41%

39%

19%

17%

13%

Consensus

28%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 26.9¢Risks 26.95u

AIFSNO 73.0¢Risks 73.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +73.05u · AIFS −73.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	2.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	15.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	55.6%	—	11.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	44.9%	—	—	—	—	38.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	70.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	65.4%	—	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	56.0%	—	—	—	—	45.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	59.8%	—	82.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	75.1%	—	—	34.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	70.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	47.4%	—	—	22.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	40.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	3.4%	1.2%	17.1%	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	36.5%	—	35.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	36.9%	17.1%	2.1%	—	14.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	9.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	68.3%	1.9%	14.0%	—	3.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	4.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	30.3%	61.3%	1.3%	28.3%	—	7.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	53.1%	—	8.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	53.2%	52.4%	20.1%	13.1%	—	9.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	48.4%	3.9%	31.2%	—	—	6.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	47.5%	44.2%	33.8%	20.7%	—	8.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	44.9%	20.8%	20.8%	—	—	9.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	43.0%	31.4%	34.6%	17.2%	—	7.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	39.3%	27.1%	29.4%	—	—	10.3%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	37.3%	20.9%	35.6%	8.3%	—	8.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	28.4%	26.1%	21.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	21.0%	24.7%	25.5%	10.2%	—	9.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	21.9%	24.9%	26.5%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	22.7%	19.0%	28.5%	9.4%	—	10.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	26.2%	27.1%	27.9%	—	—	10.1%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	24.7%	31.1%	36.1%	9.4%	11.9%	9.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	21.4%	—	33.6%	0.0%	—	7.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	55%	74.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	41%	72.3°F	5.4°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	39%	72.3°F	4.2°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
ICON	19%	64.8°F	9.9°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	17%	67.4°F	6.3°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	13%	67.1°F	5.6°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KRDU

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRDU-20261022-TMAX-GE74
Opened Oct 15 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Raleigh high ≥ 74°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗