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KRDU / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Raleigh, NCHigh ≥ 74°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST28%Oct 15 · 10:52 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
41%
EPS
39%
ICON
19%
HRES
17%
AIFS
13%
Consensus
28%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 26.9¢Risks 26.95u
VS
AIFSNO 73.0¢Risks 73.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +73.05u · AIFS −73.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 12.7% · 2026-10-15T07:49:14+00:00AIFS Single: 12.7% · 2026-10-15T08:35:49+00:00AIFS Single: 12.7% · 2026-10-15T09:21:43+00:00AIFS Single: 12.7% · 2026-10-15T10:07:29+00:00AIFS Single: 12.7% · 2026-10-15T10:52:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 38.8% · 2026-10-15T07:49:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 38.8% · 2026-10-15T08:35:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 38.8% · 2026-10-15T09:21:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 38.8% · 2026-10-15T10:07:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 38.8% · 2026-10-15T10:52:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 41.2% · 2026-10-15T07:49:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 41.2% · 2026-10-15T08:35:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 41.2% · 2026-10-15T09:21:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 41.2% · 2026-10-15T10:07:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 41.2% · 2026-10-15T10:52:49+00:00IFS HRES: 16.8% · 2026-10-15T07:49:14+00:00IFS HRES: 16.8% · 2026-10-15T08:35:49+00:00IFS HRES: 16.8% · 2026-10-15T09:21:43+00:00IFS HRES: 16.8% · 2026-10-15T10:07:29+00:00IFS HRES: 16.8% · 2026-10-15T10:52:49+00:00ICON: 19.1% · 2026-10-15T07:49:14+00:00ICON: 19.1% · 2026-10-15T08:35:49+00:00ICON: 19.1% · 2026-10-15T09:21:43+00:00ICON: 19.1% · 2026-10-15T10:07:29+00:00ICON: 19.1% · 2026-10-15T10:52:49+00:0010-15 07:4910-15 09:2110-15 10:52
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-15T10:52:49+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-15T07:49:14+00:0012.7%38.8%41.2%16.8%19.1%
2026-10-15T08:35:49+00:0012.7%38.8%41.2%16.8%19.1%
2026-10-15T09:21:43+00:0012.7%38.8%41.2%16.8%19.1%
2026-10-15T10:07:29+00:0012.7%38.8%41.2%16.8%19.1%
2026-10-15T10:52:49+00:0012.7%38.8%41.2%16.8%19.1%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
National Blend55%74.0°F4.4°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 241%72.3°F5.4°F2026-10-14 18:00Pending
IFS Ensemble39%72.3°F4.2°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending
ICON19%64.8°F9.9°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
IFS HRES17%67.4°F6.3°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
AIFS Single13%67.1°F5.6°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KRDU

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRDU-20261022-TMAX-GE74
Opened Oct 15 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Raleigh high ≥ 74°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗