KRDU / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Raleigh, NCHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

10%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 5.3¢Risks 2.67u

EPSNO 94.7¢Risks 47.33u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +47.33u · EPS −47.33u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	7.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	13.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	6.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	18.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	17.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	21.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	55.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	42.3%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	54.0%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	7.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	6.5%	—	—	13.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	42.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	6.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	27.3%	—	19.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	0.0%	—	—	7.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	30.4%	—	16.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	0.0%	—	—	5.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	0.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	0.1%	0.2%	—	—	1.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	2.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	6.5%	7.9%	0.1%	—	2.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	4.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	4.6%	8.4%	4.4%	2.7%	—	0.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	4.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	0.4%	4.8%	0.4%	—	0.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	2.3%	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	1.7%	0.4%	3.4%	0.1%	—	0.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	0.0%	1.8%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	0.1%	2.8%	0.1%	—	0.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	0.0%	1.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	0.0%	1.2%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.0%	0.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	0.7%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.0%	0.7%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.0%	0.4%	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	0.4%	—	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	10%	72.7°F	5.4°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
ICON	8%	69.5°F	7.2°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	7%	72.7°F	4.7°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	5%	71.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
National Blend	3%	71.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	1%	64.8°F	6.6°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	69.2°F	3.8°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KRDU

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRDU-20261023-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 16 · 13:28 UTC

Original listing: Raleigh runs hot-for-here: 80°F+ · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗