KRDU / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Raleigh, NCHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

10%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 5.3¢Risks 2.67u

EPSNO 94.7¢Risks 47.33u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +47.33u · EPS −47.33u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T07:15:32+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T13:28:07+00:00	2.3%	1.3%	20.4%	0.5%	9.7%
2026-10-16T14:19:41+00:00	2.4%	1.3%	20.5%	0.6%	9.7%
2026-10-16T15:05:16+00:00	2.4%	1.5%	20.5%	0.6%	9.7%
2026-10-16T15:50:54+00:00	2.4%	1.5%	20.5%	0.6%	9.7%
2026-10-16T16:36:09+00:00	2.4%	1.5%	20.5%	0.6%	9.7%
2026-10-16T17:21:17+00:00	2.4%	1.5%	26.5%	0.6%	9.7%
2026-10-16T18:06:36+00:00	2.4%	1.5%	26.5%	0.6%	9.7%
2026-10-16T18:51:41+00:00	2.4%	1.5%	26.5%	0.6%	9.7%
2026-10-16T19:36:55+00:00	7.9%	1.5%	26.5%	0.6%	34.4%
2026-10-16T20:22:22+00:00	7.9%	1.5%	26.5%	0.6%	34.4%
2026-10-16T21:07:45+00:00	7.9%	1.5%	26.5%	0.6%	34.4%
2026-10-16T21:52:51+00:00	7.9%	1.5%	26.5%	0.6%	34.4%
2026-10-16T22:37:59+00:00	7.9%	1.5%	26.5%	5.0%	34.4%
2026-10-16T23:23:22+00:00	7.9%	1.5%	25.2%	5.0%	34.4%
2026-10-17T00:08:53+00:00	7.9%	1.5%	25.2%	5.0%	34.4%
2026-10-17T00:54:56+00:00	7.9%	1.5%	25.2%	5.0%	34.4%
2026-10-17T01:40:05+00:00	19.2%	1.5%	25.2%	5.0%	34.4%
2026-10-17T02:25:18+00:00	19.2%	1.5%	25.2%	5.0%	34.4%
2026-10-17T03:10:27+00:00	19.2%	1.5%	25.2%	5.0%	34.4%
2026-10-17T03:55:36+00:00	19.2%	1.5%	25.2%	5.0%	34.4%
2026-10-17T04:41:18+00:00	19.2%	1.5%	25.2%	5.0%	34.4%
2026-10-17T05:28:21+00:00	19.2%	1.5%	16.3%	5.0%	34.4%
2026-10-17T06:13:34+00:00	19.2%	1.5%	16.3%	5.0%	34.4%
2026-10-17T06:58:44+00:00	19.2%	1.5%	16.3%	5.0%	34.4%
2026-10-17T07:44:06+00:00	16.8%	1.5%	16.3%	3.3%	29.7%
2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00	16.8%	1.5%	16.3%	3.3%	29.7%
2026-10-17T09:16:29+00:00	16.8%	1.5%	16.3%	3.3%	29.7%
2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00	16.8%	1.5%	16.3%	3.3%	29.7%
2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00	16.8%	1.5%	16.3%	3.3%	29.7%
2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:00	16.8%	0.3%	10.7%	3.3%	29.7%
2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00	16.8%	0.3%	10.7%	3.3%	29.7%
2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00	16.8%	0.3%	10.7%	3.3%	29.7%
2026-10-17T13:47:48+00:00	12.6%	0.3%	10.7%	3.5%	29.7%
2026-10-17T14:39:15+00:00	12.6%	0.3%	10.8%	3.3%	29.8%
2026-10-17T15:24:31+00:00	12.6%	0.3%	10.8%	3.3%	29.8%
2026-10-17T16:10:30+00:00	12.6%	0.3%	10.8%	3.3%	29.8%
2026-10-17T16:55:38+00:00	12.6%	0.3%	5.9%	3.3%	29.8%
2026-10-17T17:40:47+00:00	12.6%	0.3%	5.9%	3.3%	29.8%
2026-10-17T18:25:55+00:00	12.6%	0.3%	5.9%	3.3%	29.8%
2026-10-17T19:11:02+00:00	12.6%	0.3%	5.9%	3.3%	29.8%
2026-10-17T19:56:10+00:00	10.8%	0.3%	5.9%	1.3%	8.1%
2026-10-17T20:41:26+00:00	10.8%	0.3%	5.9%	1.3%	8.1%
2026-10-17T21:26:36+00:00	10.8%	0.3%	5.9%	1.3%	8.1%
2026-10-17T22:11:52+00:00	10.8%	0.3%	5.9%	1.3%	8.1%
2026-10-17T22:57:00+00:00	10.8%	0.3%	3.2%	1.3%	8.1%
2026-10-17T23:42:10+00:00	10.8%	0.3%	3.2%	1.3%	8.1%
2026-10-18T00:27:22+00:00	10.8%	0.3%	3.2%	1.3%	8.1%
2026-10-18T01:12:51+00:00	10.8%	0.3%	3.2%	1.3%	8.1%
2026-10-18T01:58:11+00:00	10.4%	0.3%	3.2%	1.3%	8.1%
2026-10-18T02:43:19+00:00	10.4%	0.3%	3.2%	1.3%	8.1%
2026-10-18T03:28:27+00:00	10.4%	0.3%	3.2%	1.3%	8.1%
2026-10-18T04:13:49+00:00	10.4%	0.3%	3.2%	1.3%	8.1%
2026-10-18T05:00:11+00:00	10.4%	0.3%	7.3%	1.3%	8.1%
2026-10-18T05:45:18+00:00	10.4%	0.3%	7.3%	1.3%	8.1%
2026-10-18T06:30:25+00:00	10.4%	0.3%	7.3%	1.3%	8.1%
2026-10-18T07:15:32+00:00	10.4%	0.3%	7.3%	1.3%	8.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	10%	72.7°F	5.4°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
ICON	8%	69.5°F	7.2°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	7%	72.7°F	4.7°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	5%	71.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
National Blend	3%	71.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	1%	64.8°F	6.6°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	69.2°F	3.8°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KRDU

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRDU-20261023-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 16 · 13:28 UTC

Original listing: Raleigh runs hot-for-here: 80°F+ · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗