KRDU / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Raleigh, NCHigh ≥ 70°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST36%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

47%

40%

35%

28%

21%

Consensus

36%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 34.0¢Risks 34.05u

WN2NO 66.0¢Risks 65.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +65.95u · WN2 −65.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	82.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	82.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	89.2%	—	—	—	—	60.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	93.9%	—	—	—	—	60.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	81.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	86.6%	—	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	97.2%	—	—	—	—	79.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	95.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	68.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	96.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	84.8%	—	—	—	—	73.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	89.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	95.3%	—	—	—	—	72.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	80.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	53.8%	—	—	—	—	56.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	21.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	69.1%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	11.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	65.4%	—	—	—	—	54.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	88.1%	—	14.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	44.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	12.9%	—	51.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	—	—	—	28.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	16.4%	—	29.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	24.6%	—	51.3%	—	—	34.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	42.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	2.8%	4.5%	34.8%	—	—	19.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	30.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	5.8%	3.1%	48.6%	8.5%	—	14.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	42.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	11.3%	5.5%	44.9%	17.5%	—	11.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	13.5%	—	14.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	9.0%	11.4%	46.2%	47.7%	—	12.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	24.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	13.1%	5.7%	26.1%	14.0%	—	8.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	10.2%	0.0%	23.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	11.2%	4.5%	23.8%	15.2%	—	3.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	11.5%	7.8%	26.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	16.1%	9.7%	29.1%	30.7%	45.6%	7.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	13.0%	—	31.8%	—	—	4.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	54%	70.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	47%	69.2°F	4.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	40%	67.9°F	6.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	35%	67.3°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
ICON	28%	63.6°F	9.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	21%	65.4°F	5.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 70°F · KRDU

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRDU-20261024-TMAX-GE70
Opened Oct 17 · 07:44 UTC

Original listing: Raleigh high ≥ 70°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗