KRDU / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Raleigh, NCHigh ≥ 70°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST36%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

47%

40%

35%

28%

21%

Consensus

36%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 34.0¢Risks 34.05u

WN2NO 66.0¢Risks 65.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +65.95u · WN2 −65.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:27+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T07:44:06+00:00	11.5%	46.2%	65.7%	12.3%	29.4%
2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00	11.5%	46.2%	65.7%	12.3%	29.4%
2026-10-17T09:16:29+00:00	11.5%	46.2%	65.7%	12.3%	29.4%
2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00	11.5%	46.2%	65.7%	12.3%	29.4%
2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00	11.5%	46.2%	65.7%	12.3%	29.4%
2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:00	11.5%	44.0%	56.2%	12.3%	29.4%
2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00	11.5%	44.0%	56.2%	12.3%	29.4%
2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00	11.5%	44.0%	56.2%	12.3%	29.4%
2026-10-17T13:47:48+00:00	28.9%	44.0%	56.2%	12.3%	29.4%
2026-10-17T14:39:15+00:00	28.9%	44.0%	56.2%	12.2%	29.7%
2026-10-17T15:24:31+00:00	28.9%	47.0%	56.2%	12.2%	29.7%
2026-10-17T16:10:30+00:00	28.9%	47.0%	56.2%	12.2%	29.7%
2026-10-17T16:55:38+00:00	28.9%	47.0%	35.5%	12.2%	29.7%
2026-10-17T17:40:47+00:00	28.9%	47.0%	35.5%	12.2%	29.7%
2026-10-17T18:25:55+00:00	28.9%	47.0%	35.5%	12.2%	29.7%
2026-10-17T19:11:02+00:00	28.9%	47.0%	35.5%	12.2%	29.7%
2026-10-17T19:56:10+00:00	19.7%	47.0%	35.5%	40.2%	27.7%
2026-10-17T20:41:26+00:00	19.7%	47.0%	35.5%	40.2%	27.7%
2026-10-17T21:26:36+00:00	19.7%	47.0%	35.5%	40.2%	27.7%
2026-10-17T22:11:52+00:00	19.7%	47.0%	35.5%	40.2%	27.7%
2026-10-17T22:57:00+00:00	19.7%	47.0%	21.1%	40.2%	27.7%
2026-10-17T23:42:10+00:00	19.7%	47.0%	21.1%	40.2%	27.7%
2026-10-18T00:27:22+00:00	19.7%	47.0%	21.1%	40.2%	27.7%
2026-10-18T01:12:51+00:00	19.7%	47.0%	21.1%	40.2%	27.7%
2026-10-18T01:58:11+00:00	35.1%	47.0%	21.1%	40.2%	27.7%
2026-10-18T02:43:19+00:00	35.1%	47.0%	21.1%	40.2%	27.7%
2026-10-18T03:28:27+00:00	35.1%	47.0%	21.1%	40.2%	27.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	54%	70.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	47%	69.2°F	4.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	40%	67.9°F	6.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	35%	67.3°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
ICON	28%	63.6°F	9.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	21%	65.4°F	5.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 70°F · KRDU

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRDU-20261024-TMAX-GE70
Opened Oct 17 · 07:44 UTC

Original listing: Raleigh high ≥ 70°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗