KRDU / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Raleigh, NCHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST57%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

66%

66%

62%

43%

22%

Consensus

57%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 44.1¢Risks 44.10u

EPSNO 55.9¢Risks 55.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +55.90u · EPS −55.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	5.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	47.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	93.9%	—	—	—	—	54.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	89.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	—	47.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	29.6%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	28.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	15.0%	—	1.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	31.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	17.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	23.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	41.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	61.4%	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	40.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	—	47.5%	—	—	20.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	51.9%	—	41.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	55.2%	—	0.3%	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	57.3%	—	40.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	47.3%	0.0%	33.6%	—	—	23.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	48.6%	—	47.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	47.2%	28.6%	35.6%	2.4%	—	19.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	38.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	42.0%	39.2%	45.6%	17.0%	44.2%	26.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	34.7%	—	49.2%	—	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	77%	75.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	66%	74.8°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	66%	74.4°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	62%	74.6°F	7.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	73.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	43%	71.3°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	22%	69.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KRDU

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRDU-20261026-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 20 · 04:04 UTC

Original listing: Raleigh high ≥ 73°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗