KRDU / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Raleigh, NCHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST57%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

66%

66%

62%

43%

22%

Consensus

57%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 44.1¢Risks 44.10u

EPSNO 55.9¢Risks 55.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +55.90u · EPS −55.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T14:46:21+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-20T04:04:13+00:00	69.3%	16.5%	68.1%	36.0%	55.6%
2026-10-20T04:51:19+00:00	69.3%	16.5%	68.1%	36.0%	55.6%
2026-10-20T05:36:27+00:00	69.3%	16.5%	65.3%	36.0%	55.6%
2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00	69.3%	16.5%	65.3%	36.0%	55.6%
2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00	69.3%	16.5%	65.3%	36.0%	55.6%
2026-10-20T07:51:52+00:00	66.5%	16.5%	65.3%	36.0%	61.6%
2026-10-20T08:37:07+00:00	66.5%	16.5%	65.3%	36.0%	61.6%
2026-10-20T09:22:22+00:00	66.5%	16.5%	65.3%	36.0%	61.6%
2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00	66.5%	16.5%	65.3%	36.0%	61.6%
2026-10-20T10:53:12+00:00	66.5%	21.7%	65.8%	42.8%	61.6%
2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00	66.5%	21.7%	65.8%	42.8%	61.6%
2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00	66.5%	21.7%	65.8%	42.8%	61.6%
2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00	66.5%	21.7%	65.8%	42.8%	61.6%
2026-10-20T13:55:10+00:00	66.5%	21.7%	65.8%	42.8%	61.6%
2026-10-20T14:46:21+00:00	66.5%	21.7%	65.8%	42.8%	61.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	77%	75.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	66%	74.8°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	66%	74.4°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	62%	74.6°F	7.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	73.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	43%	71.3°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	22%	69.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KRDU

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRDU-20261026-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 20 · 04:04 UTC

Original listing: Raleigh high ≥ 73°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗