KRIC / Thu Oct 1 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Richmond, VAHigh ≥ 86°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 01 · 06:57 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

84%

68%

55%

43%

29%

Consensus

74%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 56.5¢Risks 56.45u

WN2NO 43.5¢Risks 43.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +43.55u · WN2 −43.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.8%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	10.3%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	8.3%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	9.3%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	7.9%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	9.7%	—	—	—	—	9.0%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	8.2%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	41.7%	—	1.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	37.2%	—	—	—	—	10.3%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	35.7%	—	20.9%	—	—	17.0%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	51.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	43.4%	—	2.8%	—	—	21.4%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	48.8%	—	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	59.3%	—	—	21.1%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	57.0%	—	66.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	60.3%	—	16.8%	—	—	33.0%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	48.0%	—	10.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	28.8%	1.4%	10.8%	—	—	38.7%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	43.8%	—	85.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	58.4%	—	86.7%	1.9%	—	38.2%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	57.8%	—	62.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	51.5%	46.4%	71.5%	15.2%	—	37.8%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	76.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	62.7%	42.4%	80.0%	9.7%	—	46.2%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	68.1%	—	80.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	62.5%	39.7%	74.5%	22.4%	—	53.2%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	61.3%	1.7%	72.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	58.3%	42.5%	82.7%	36.9%	—	53.3%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	61.0%	46.6%	84.3%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	64.6%	57.8%	81.0%	19.6%	—	67.0%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	62.4%	45.5%	78.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	64.4%	48.2%	79.7%	30.6%	—	57.3%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	67.4%	66.5%	78.3%	—	—	62.1%
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	65.2%	71.3%	79.0%	39.4%	—	66.1%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	59.9%	75.9%	87.1%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	60.2%	73.2%	88.7%	33.0%	—	62.2%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	62.5%	88.4%	84.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	61.8%	83.8%	86.3%	37.1%	—	61.8%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	65.4%	83.9%	87.1%	0.0%	—	66.4%
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	62.6%	86.0%	87.9%	34.1%	39.6%	61.5%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	58.4%	79.2%	86.1%	24.4%	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	59.9%	86.3%	26.6%	28.7%	61.1%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	53.9%	61.5%	85.7%	20.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	56.7%	59.3%	83.5%	19.1%	26.2%	52.7%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	56.9%	66.2%	82.7%	20.1%	—	52.8%
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	52.9%	65.5%	80.9%	24.5%	24.5%	40.0%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	47.0%	59.0%	77.6%	21.3%	—	29.8%
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	45.3%	54.7%	80.8%	15.2%	25.0%	27.6%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	69.0%	67.6%	19.2%	—	20.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	94%	89.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-01 02:00	0.0031
AIFS Single	84%	89.5°F	4.0°F	2026-09-30 18:00	0.0259
National Blend	76%	87.1°F	2.2°F	2026-10-01 00:00	0.0557
IFS HRES	68%	87.2°F	3.7°F	2026-09-30 12:00	0.1056
IFS Ensemble	55%	85.8°F	2.6°F	2026-09-30 00:00	0.2061
ICON	43%	84.9°F	3.5°F	2026-09-30 12:00	0.3226
WeatherNext 2	29%	83.6°F	3.4°F	2026-09-30 18:00	0.5041

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KRIC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRIC-20261001-TMAX-GE86
Opened Sep 24 · 07:27 UTC

Original listing: Richmond runs hot-for-here: 86°F+ · Thu Oct 1

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗