KRIC / Thu Oct 1 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Richmond, VAHigh ≥ 86°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 01 · 06:57 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

84%

68%

55%

43%

29%

Consensus

74%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 56.5¢Risks 56.45u

WN2NO 43.5¢Risks 43.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +43.55u · WN2 −43.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-01T06:57:23+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-24T07:27:38+00:00	55.0%	14.0%	37.1%	64.7%	18.2%
2026-09-24T08:13:22+00:00	55.0%	14.0%	37.1%	64.7%	18.2%
2026-09-24T08:58:36+00:00	55.0%	14.0%	37.1%	64.7%	18.2%
2026-09-24T09:43:40+00:00	55.0%	14.0%	37.1%	64.7%	18.2%
2026-09-24T10:28:45+00:00	55.0%	14.0%	37.1%	64.7%	18.2%
2026-09-24T11:13:51+00:00	55.0%	30.9%	37.8%	64.7%	18.2%
2026-09-24T11:58:57+00:00	55.0%	30.9%	37.8%	64.7%	18.2%
2026-09-24T12:44:01+00:00	55.0%	30.9%	37.8%	64.7%	18.2%
2026-09-24T13:29:16+00:00	69.3%	30.9%	37.8%	64.7%	18.2%
2026-09-24T14:16:40+00:00	68.6%	30.9%	37.9%	64.7%	18.2%
2026-09-24T15:01:49+00:00	68.6%	23.8%	37.9%	64.7%	18.2%
2026-09-24T15:47:15+00:00	68.6%	23.8%	37.9%	64.7%	18.2%
2026-09-24T16:32:26+00:00	68.6%	23.8%	37.9%	64.7%	18.2%
2026-09-24T17:17:32+00:00	68.6%	23.8%	33.3%	64.7%	18.2%
2026-09-24T18:02:38+00:00	68.6%	23.8%	33.3%	64.7%	18.2%
2026-09-24T18:47:42+00:00	68.6%	23.8%	33.3%	64.7%	18.2%
2026-09-24T19:32:51+00:00	80.6%	23.8%	33.3%	64.7%	75.0%
2026-09-24T20:18:00+00:00	80.6%	23.8%	33.3%	64.7%	75.0%
2026-09-24T21:03:05+00:00	80.6%	23.8%	33.3%	64.7%	75.0%
2026-09-24T21:48:11+00:00	80.6%	23.8%	33.3%	64.7%	75.0%
2026-09-24T22:33:16+00:00	80.6%	23.8%	33.3%	54.4%	75.0%
2026-09-24T23:18:23+00:00	80.6%	23.8%	36.3%	54.4%	75.0%
2026-09-25T00:03:29+00:00	80.6%	23.8%	36.3%	54.4%	75.0%
2026-09-25T00:48:39+00:00	80.6%	23.8%	36.3%	54.4%	75.0%
2026-09-25T01:33:50+00:00	80.6%	23.8%	36.3%	54.4%	75.0%
2026-09-25T02:18:57+00:00	80.6%	23.8%	36.3%	54.4%	75.0%
2026-09-25T03:04:09+00:00	80.6%	23.8%	36.3%	54.4%	75.0%
2026-09-25T03:49:44+00:00	80.6%	23.8%	36.3%	54.4%	75.0%
2026-09-25T04:34:49+00:00	80.6%	23.8%	36.3%	54.4%	64.6%
2026-09-25T05:19:56+00:00	80.6%	23.8%	37.1%	54.4%	64.6%
2026-09-25T06:05:03+00:00	80.6%	23.8%	37.1%	54.4%	64.6%
2026-09-25T06:50:09+00:00	80.6%	23.8%	37.1%	54.4%	64.6%
2026-09-25T07:35:17+00:00	76.8%	23.8%	37.1%	54.4%	64.6%
2026-09-25T08:20:23+00:00	76.8%	23.8%	37.1%	54.4%	64.6%
2026-09-25T09:05:28+00:00	76.8%	23.8%	37.1%	54.4%	64.6%
2026-09-25T09:50:33+00:00	76.8%	23.8%	37.1%	54.4%	64.6%
2026-09-25T10:35:38+00:00	76.8%	23.8%	37.1%	54.4%	64.6%
2026-09-25T11:20:45+00:00	76.8%	15.9%	37.1%	54.4%	64.6%
2026-09-25T12:05:51+00:00	76.8%	15.9%	37.1%	54.4%	64.6%
2026-09-25T12:50:57+00:00	76.8%	15.9%	37.1%	54.4%	64.6%
2026-09-25T13:36:02+00:00	81.1%	15.9%	37.1%	54.4%	64.6%
2026-09-25T14:23:04+00:00	81.1%	15.9%	37.1%	54.4%	64.7%
2026-09-25T15:08:10+00:00	81.1%	13.2%	37.1%	54.4%	64.7%
2026-09-25T15:53:16+00:00	81.1%	13.2%	37.1%	54.4%	64.7%
2026-09-25T16:38:21+00:00	81.1%	13.2%	37.1%	54.4%	61.9%
2026-09-25T17:23:29+00:00	81.1%	13.2%	42.1%	54.4%	61.9%
2026-09-25T18:08:41+00:00	81.1%	13.2%	42.1%	54.4%	61.9%
2026-09-25T18:54:06+00:00	81.1%	13.2%	42.1%	54.4%	61.9%
2026-09-25T19:39:21+00:00	84.5%	13.2%	42.1%	65.2%	61.9%
2026-09-25T20:25:16+00:00	84.5%	13.2%	42.1%	65.2%	61.9%
2026-09-25T21:10:21+00:00	84.5%	13.2%	42.1%	65.2%	61.9%
2026-09-25T21:55:27+00:00	84.5%	13.2%	42.1%	65.2%	61.9%
2026-09-25T22:40:32+00:00	84.5%	13.2%	42.1%	65.2%	61.9%
2026-09-25T23:25:37+00:00	84.5%	13.2%	43.0%	65.2%	61.9%
2026-09-26T00:10:43+00:00	84.5%	13.2%	43.0%	65.2%	61.9%
2026-09-26T00:55:51+00:00	84.5%	13.2%	43.0%	65.2%	61.9%
2026-09-26T01:41:02+00:00	87.0%	13.2%	43.0%	65.2%	61.9%
2026-09-26T02:26:16+00:00	87.0%	13.2%	43.0%	65.2%	61.9%
2026-09-26T03:11:41+00:00	87.0%	13.2%	43.0%	65.2%	61.9%
2026-09-26T03:56:56+00:00	87.0%	13.2%	43.0%	65.2%	61.9%
2026-09-26T04:42:03+00:00	87.0%	13.2%	43.0%	65.2%	56.1%
2026-09-26T05:27:16+00:00	87.0%	13.2%	47.4%	65.2%	56.1%
2026-09-26T06:12:23+00:00	87.0%	13.2%	47.4%	65.2%	56.1%
2026-09-26T06:57:30+00:00	87.0%	13.2%	47.4%	65.2%	56.1%
2026-09-26T07:42:46+00:00	85.8%	13.2%	47.4%	67.2%	56.1%
2026-09-26T08:28:39+00:00	85.8%	13.2%	47.4%	67.2%	56.1%
2026-09-26T09:13:45+00:00	85.8%	13.2%	47.4%	67.2%	56.1%
2026-09-26T09:58:51+00:00	85.8%	13.2%	47.4%	67.2%	56.1%
2026-09-26T10:44:02+00:00	85.8%	13.2%	47.4%	67.2%	56.1%
2026-09-26T11:29:14+00:00	85.8%	46.8%	42.4%	67.2%	56.1%
2026-09-26T12:14:29+00:00	85.8%	46.8%	42.4%	67.2%	56.1%
2026-09-26T12:59:34+00:00	85.8%	46.8%	42.4%	67.2%	56.1%
2026-09-26T13:44:41+00:00	84.9%	46.8%	42.4%	67.2%	56.1%
2026-09-26T14:32:03+00:00	84.9%	46.8%	42.4%	67.2%	56.1%
2026-09-26T15:17:29+00:00	84.9%	48.4%	42.4%	67.2%	56.1%
2026-09-26T16:02:34+00:00	84.9%	48.4%	42.4%	67.2%	56.1%
2026-09-26T16:47:41+00:00	84.9%	48.4%	42.4%	67.2%	58.8%
2026-09-26T17:32:49+00:00	84.9%	48.4%	42.4%	67.2%	58.8%
2026-09-26T18:17:57+00:00	84.9%	48.4%	42.4%	67.2%	58.8%
2026-09-26T19:03:07+00:00	84.9%	48.4%	42.4%	67.2%	58.8%
2026-09-26T19:48:16+00:00	82.4%	48.4%	42.4%	47.9%	58.8%
2026-09-26T20:33:25+00:00	82.4%	48.4%	42.4%	47.9%	58.8%
2026-09-26T21:18:32+00:00	82.4%	48.4%	42.4%	47.9%	58.8%
2026-09-26T22:03:37+00:00	82.4%	48.4%	42.4%	47.9%	58.8%
2026-09-26T22:48:43+00:00	82.4%	48.4%	42.4%	47.9%	58.8%
2026-09-26T23:33:53+00:00	82.4%	48.4%	36.0%	47.9%	58.8%
2026-09-27T00:19:02+00:00	82.4%	48.4%	36.0%	47.9%	58.8%
2026-09-27T01:04:10+00:00	82.4%	48.4%	36.0%	47.9%	58.8%
2026-09-27T01:49:24+00:00	84.4%	48.4%	36.0%	47.9%	58.8%
2026-09-27T02:34:31+00:00	84.4%	48.4%	36.0%	47.9%	58.8%
2026-09-27T03:19:40+00:00	84.4%	48.4%	36.0%	47.9%	58.8%
2026-09-27T04:05:13+00:00	84.4%	48.4%	36.0%	47.9%	58.8%
2026-09-27T04:50:18+00:00	84.4%	48.4%	36.0%	47.9%	67.8%
2026-09-27T05:35:27+00:00	84.4%	48.4%	42.4%	47.9%	67.8%
2026-09-27T06:20:37+00:00	84.4%	48.4%	42.4%	47.9%	67.8%
2026-09-27T07:05:43+00:00	84.4%	48.4%	42.4%	47.9%	67.8%
2026-09-27T07:50:57+00:00	87.8%	48.4%	42.4%	78.7%	67.8%
2026-09-27T08:36:49+00:00	87.8%	48.4%	42.4%	78.7%	67.8%
2026-09-27T09:21:58+00:00	87.8%	48.4%	42.4%	78.7%	67.8%
2026-09-27T10:07:03+00:00	87.8%	48.4%	42.4%	78.7%	67.8%
2026-09-27T10:52:08+00:00	87.8%	48.4%	42.4%	78.7%	67.8%
2026-09-27T11:37:15+00:00	87.8%	69.8%	37.1%	78.7%	67.8%
2026-09-27T12:22:25+00:00	87.8%	69.8%	37.1%	78.7%	67.8%
2026-09-27T13:07:31+00:00	87.8%	69.8%	37.1%	78.7%	67.8%
2026-09-27T13:52:38+00:00	85.9%	69.8%	37.1%	78.7%	68.7%
2026-09-27T14:40:02+00:00	85.9%	69.8%	37.1%	78.7%	68.7%
2026-09-27T15:25:27+00:00	85.9%	69.8%	37.1%	78.7%	68.7%
2026-09-27T16:10:33+00:00	85.9%	69.8%	37.1%	78.7%	68.7%
2026-09-27T16:55:38+00:00	85.9%	69.8%	29.7%	78.7%	60.0%
2026-09-27T17:40:46+00:00	85.9%	69.8%	29.7%	78.7%	60.0%
2026-09-27T18:25:54+00:00	85.9%	69.8%	29.7%	78.7%	60.0%
2026-09-27T19:11:07+00:00	85.9%	69.8%	29.7%	78.7%	60.0%
2026-09-27T19:56:16+00:00	86.9%	69.8%	29.7%	69.7%	60.0%
2026-09-27T20:41:24+00:00	86.9%	69.8%	29.7%	69.7%	60.0%
2026-09-27T21:26:31+00:00	86.9%	69.8%	29.7%	69.7%	60.0%
2026-09-27T22:11:35+00:00	86.9%	69.8%	29.7%	69.7%	60.0%
2026-09-27T22:56:42+00:00	86.9%	69.8%	28.0%	69.7%	60.0%
2026-09-27T23:41:49+00:00	86.9%	69.8%	28.0%	69.7%	60.0%
2026-09-28T00:26:55+00:00	86.9%	69.8%	28.0%	69.7%	60.0%
2026-09-28T01:12:03+00:00	86.9%	69.8%	28.0%	69.7%	60.0%
2026-09-28T01:57:10+00:00	88.2%	69.8%	28.0%	69.7%	60.0%
2026-09-28T02:42:16+00:00	88.2%	69.8%	28.0%	69.7%	60.0%
2026-09-28T03:27:25+00:00	88.2%	69.8%	28.0%	69.7%	60.0%
2026-09-28T04:13:28+00:00	88.2%	69.8%	28.0%	69.7%	60.0%
2026-09-28T04:58:34+00:00	88.2%	69.8%	30.6%	69.7%	76.4%
2026-09-28T05:43:42+00:00	88.2%	69.8%	30.6%	69.7%	76.4%
2026-09-28T06:28:53+00:00	88.2%	69.8%	30.6%	69.7%	76.4%
2026-09-28T07:13:59+00:00	88.2%	69.8%	30.6%	69.7%	76.4%
2026-09-28T07:59:15+00:00	88.3%	69.8%	30.6%	76.8%	76.4%
2026-09-28T08:45:27+00:00	88.3%	69.8%	30.6%	76.8%	76.4%
2026-09-28T09:30:32+00:00	88.3%	69.8%	30.6%	76.8%	76.4%
2026-09-28T10:15:38+00:00	88.3%	69.8%	30.6%	76.8%	76.4%
2026-09-28T11:00:46+00:00	88.3%	68.8%	27.6%	76.8%	76.4%
2026-09-28T11:46:04+00:00	88.3%	68.8%	27.6%	76.8%	76.4%
2026-09-28T12:31:11+00:00	88.3%	68.8%	27.6%	76.8%	76.4%
2026-09-28T13:16:20+00:00	88.3%	68.8%	27.6%	76.8%	76.4%
2026-09-28T14:01:26+00:00	85.9%	68.8%	27.6%	76.8%	76.4%
2026-09-29T04:21:16+00:00	86.5%	69.6%	22.5%	68.0%	77.1%
2026-09-29T05:06:53+00:00	86.5%	69.6%	31.3%	68.0%	81.8%
2026-09-29T05:52:01+00:00	86.5%	69.6%	31.3%	68.0%	81.8%
2026-09-29T06:37:08+00:00	86.5%	69.6%	31.3%	68.0%	81.8%
2026-09-29T07:22:18+00:00	87.0%	69.6%	31.3%	73.7%	81.8%
2026-09-29T08:08:12+00:00	87.0%	69.6%	31.3%	73.7%	81.8%
2026-09-29T08:53:31+00:00	87.0%	69.6%	31.3%	73.7%	81.8%
2026-09-29T09:38:36+00:00	87.0%	69.6%	31.3%	73.7%	81.8%
2026-09-29T10:23:42+00:00	87.0%	69.6%	31.3%	73.7%	81.8%
2026-09-29T11:08:47+00:00	87.0%	58.1%	31.3%	73.7%	81.8%
2026-09-29T11:54:05+00:00	87.0%	58.1%	31.3%	73.7%	81.8%
2026-09-29T12:39:10+00:00	87.0%	58.1%	31.3%	73.7%	81.8%
2026-09-29T13:24:15+00:00	88.5%	58.1%	31.3%	73.7%	81.8%
2026-09-29T14:11:39+00:00	88.1%	58.1%	31.3%	73.7%	81.8%
2026-09-29T14:56:50+00:00	88.1%	59.7%	31.3%	73.7%	81.8%
2026-09-29T15:42:12+00:00	88.1%	59.7%	31.3%	73.7%	81.8%
2026-09-29T16:27:39+00:00	88.1%	59.7%	31.3%	73.7%	82.6%
2026-09-29T17:12:49+00:00	88.1%	59.7%	24.1%	73.7%	82.6%
2026-09-29T17:57:57+00:00	88.1%	59.7%	24.1%	73.7%	82.6%
2026-09-29T18:43:04+00:00	88.1%	59.7%	24.1%	73.7%	82.6%
2026-09-29T19:28:12+00:00	86.6%	59.7%	24.1%	70.4%	82.6%
2026-09-29T20:13:31+00:00	86.6%	59.7%	24.1%	70.4%	82.6%
2026-09-29T20:58:45+00:00	86.6%	59.7%	24.1%	70.4%	82.6%
2026-09-29T21:43:54+00:00	86.6%	59.7%	24.1%	70.4%	82.6%
2026-09-29T22:29:00+00:00	86.6%	59.7%	24.1%	70.4%	82.6%
2026-09-29T23:14:10+00:00	86.6%	59.7%	24.1%	70.4%	82.6%
2026-09-29T23:59:26+00:00	86.6%	59.7%	24.1%	70.4%	82.6%
2026-09-30T00:44:32+00:00	86.6%	59.7%	24.1%	70.4%	82.6%
2026-09-30T01:29:49+00:00	84.4%	59.7%	24.1%	70.4%	82.6%
2026-09-30T02:14:58+00:00	84.4%	59.7%	24.1%	70.4%	82.6%
2026-09-30T03:00:05+00:00	84.4%	59.7%	24.1%	70.4%	82.6%
2026-09-30T03:45:21+00:00	84.4%	59.7%	24.1%	70.4%	82.6%
2026-09-30T04:30:31+00:00	84.4%	59.7%	24.1%	70.4%	44.4%
2026-09-30T05:16:18+00:00	84.4%	59.7%	27.7%	70.4%	44.4%
2026-09-30T06:01:27+00:00	84.4%	59.7%	27.7%	70.4%	44.4%
2026-09-30T06:46:34+00:00	84.4%	59.7%	27.7%	70.4%	44.4%
2026-09-30T07:31:48+00:00	84.4%	59.7%	27.7%	72.2%	44.4%
2026-09-30T08:18:09+00:00	84.4%	59.7%	27.7%	72.2%	44.4%
2026-09-30T09:03:33+00:00	84.4%	59.7%	27.7%	72.2%	44.4%
2026-09-30T09:48:39+00:00	84.4%	59.7%	27.7%	72.2%	44.4%
2026-09-30T10:34:12+00:00	85.6%	59.7%	27.7%	72.2%	44.4%
2026-09-30T11:19:56+00:00	85.6%	56.3%	26.1%	72.2%	44.4%
2026-09-30T12:05:13+00:00	85.6%	56.3%	26.1%	72.2%	44.4%
2026-09-30T12:50:18+00:00	85.6%	56.3%	26.1%	72.2%	44.4%
2026-09-30T13:35:24+00:00	82.7%	56.3%	26.1%	72.2%	44.4%
2026-09-30T14:23:07+00:00	82.7%	56.3%	26.1%	72.2%	44.3%
2026-09-30T15:08:14+00:00	82.7%	54.6%	26.1%	72.2%	44.3%
2026-09-30T15:53:25+00:00	82.7%	54.6%	26.1%	72.2%	44.3%
2026-09-30T16:38:47+00:00	82.7%	54.6%	26.1%	72.2%	43.2%
2026-09-30T17:23:55+00:00	82.7%	54.6%	20.8%	72.2%	43.2%
2026-09-30T18:09:02+00:00	82.7%	54.6%	20.8%	72.2%	43.2%
2026-09-30T18:54:12+00:00	82.7%	54.6%	20.8%	72.2%	43.2%
2026-09-30T19:39:18+00:00	83.9%	54.6%	20.8%	67.5%	43.2%
2026-09-30T20:24:31+00:00	83.9%	54.6%	20.8%	67.5%	43.2%
2026-09-30T21:09:37+00:00	83.9%	54.6%	20.8%	67.5%	43.2%
2026-09-30T21:54:43+00:00	83.9%	54.6%	20.8%	67.5%	43.2%
2026-09-30T22:39:49+00:00	83.9%	54.6%	20.8%	67.5%	43.2%
2026-09-30T23:24:54+00:00	83.9%	54.6%	19.2%	67.5%	43.2%
2026-10-01T00:10:06+00:00	83.9%	54.6%	19.2%	67.5%	43.2%
2026-10-01T00:55:49+00:00	83.9%	54.6%	19.2%	67.5%	43.2%
2026-10-01T01:40:54+00:00	83.9%	54.6%	19.2%	67.5%	43.2%
2026-10-01T02:26:02+00:00	83.9%	54.6%	19.2%	67.5%	43.2%
2026-10-01T03:11:13+00:00	83.9%	54.6%	19.2%	67.5%	43.2%
2026-10-01T03:57:02+00:00	83.9%	54.6%	19.2%	67.5%	43.2%
2026-10-01T04:42:08+00:00	83.9%	54.6%	19.2%	67.5%	43.2%
2026-10-01T05:27:13+00:00	83.9%	54.6%	29.0%	67.5%	43.2%
2026-10-01T06:12:18+00:00	83.9%	54.6%	29.0%	67.5%	43.2%
2026-10-01T06:57:23+00:00	83.9%	54.6%	29.0%	67.5%	43.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	94%	89.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-01 02:00	0.0031
AIFS Single	84%	89.5°F	4.0°F	2026-09-30 18:00	0.0259
National Blend	76%	87.1°F	2.2°F	2026-10-01 00:00	0.0557
IFS HRES	68%	87.2°F	3.7°F	2026-09-30 12:00	0.1056
IFS Ensemble	55%	85.8°F	2.6°F	2026-09-30 00:00	0.2061
ICON	43%	84.9°F	3.5°F	2026-09-30 12:00	0.3226
WeatherNext 2	29%	83.6°F	3.4°F	2026-09-30 18:00	0.5041

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KRIC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRIC-20261001-TMAX-GE86
Opened Sep 24 · 07:27 UTC

Original listing: Richmond runs hot-for-here: 86°F+ · Thu Oct 1

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗