KRIC / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Richmond, VAHigh ≤ 60°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 17 · 06:58 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

33%

12%

10%

<1%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 16.7¢Risks 16.70u

EPSNO 83.3¢Risks 83.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +83.30u · EPS −83.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	92.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	40.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	7.3%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	4.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	7.7%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	6.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	13.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	58.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	31.9%	—	—	—	—	13.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	12.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	16.6%	—	—	7.7%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	5.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	0.1%	—	—	4.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	23.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	8.5%	—	—	6.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	1.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	9.3%	—	—	11.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	37.6%	—	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	49.3%	0.7%	0.0%	—	—	13.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	—	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	68.3%	1.1%	1.1%	0.9%	—	9.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	64.0%	—	1.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	1.3%	40.6%	—	8.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	66.7%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	53.0%	12.5%	38.0%	—	18.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	63.8%	—	15.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	57.1%	3.1%	4.1%	14.9%	—	26.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	42.7%	25.6%	0.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	42.5%	15.7%	3.4%	20.7%	—	28.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	43.2%	13.2%	13.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	37.9%	0.5%	29.1%	32.2%	—	29.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	39.3%	0.9%	29.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	29.7%	1.2%	1.5%	26.6%	—	16.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	31.8%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	1.2%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	29.6%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	—	0.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	29.9%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	0.5%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	22.7%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	36.5%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	0.5%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	30.1%	0.0%	0.0%	5.0%	0.0%	0.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	48.9%	0.0%	0.0%	12.9%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	37.4%	0.0%	0.0%	15.3%	—	1.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	39.3%	0.0%	0.0%	29.3%	—	4.0%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	38.9%	0.0%	0.0%	32.0%	0.0%	5.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	43.6%	0.0%	0.0%	29.1%	—	6.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	42.0%	0.0%	0.0%	31.9%	0.0%	5.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	33.8%	0.0%	0.0%	37.7%	—	8.6%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	31.8%	0.0%	0.0%	28.0%	0.0%	10.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	98.3%	41.0%	60.5%	53.0%	—	72.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	99.9%	97.4%	87.5%	97.1%	98.4%	98.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	96.9%	77.2%	93.7%	—	97.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	>99%	55.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0000
NWS forecast	95%	57.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-17 03:00	0.0023
IFS HRES	33%	62.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.4436
WeatherNext 2	12%	63.9°F	2.9°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.7726
AIFS Single	10%	65.6°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.8136
IFS Ensemble	<1%	84.1°F	2.9°F	2026-10-16 00:00	1.0000
ICON	<1%	75.8°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	1.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 60°F · KRIC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRIC-20261017-TMAX-LE60
Opened Oct 13 · 08:02 UTC

Original listing: Richmond stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 60°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗