KRIC / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Richmond, VAHigh ≤ 60°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 17 · 06:58 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

33%

12%

10%

<1%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 16.7¢Risks 16.70u

EPSNO 83.3¢Risks 83.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +83.30u · EPS −83.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T06:58:44+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T08:02:44+00:00	11.6%	0.3%	13.0%	12.7%	0.3%
2026-10-13T08:49:38+00:00	11.6%	0.3%	13.0%	12.7%	0.3%
2026-10-13T09:34:44+00:00	11.6%	0.3%	13.0%	12.7%	0.3%
2026-10-13T10:19:51+00:00	11.6%	0.3%	13.0%	12.7%	0.3%
2026-10-13T11:05:10+00:00	11.6%	0.3%	13.6%	12.7%	0.3%
2026-10-13T11:50:34+00:00	11.6%	0.3%	13.6%	12.7%	0.3%
2026-10-13T12:35:47+00:00	11.6%	0.3%	13.6%	12.7%	0.3%
2026-10-13T13:20:53+00:00	11.6%	0.3%	13.6%	12.7%	0.3%
2026-10-13T14:06:00+00:00	12.5%	0.3%	13.5%	12.7%	0.3%
2026-10-13T14:56:02+00:00	12.5%	0.2%	13.5%	12.7%	0.3%
2026-10-13T15:41:19+00:00	12.5%	0.2%	13.5%	12.7%	0.3%
2026-10-13T16:27:01+00:00	12.5%	0.2%	13.5%	12.7%	0.3%
2026-10-13T17:12:08+00:00	12.5%	0.2%	13.5%	12.7%	0.3%
2026-10-13T17:57:16+00:00	12.5%	0.2%	13.5%	12.7%	0.3%
2026-10-13T18:42:21+00:00	12.5%	0.2%	13.5%	12.7%	0.3%
2026-10-13T19:27:26+00:00	8.5%	0.2%	13.5%	12.7%	0.9%
2026-10-13T20:12:32+00:00	8.5%	0.2%	13.5%	12.7%	0.9%
2026-10-13T20:57:41+00:00	8.5%	0.2%	13.5%	12.7%	0.9%
2026-10-13T21:43:01+00:00	8.5%	0.2%	13.5%	12.7%	0.9%
2026-10-13T22:28:22+00:00	8.5%	0.2%	13.5%	37.4%	0.9%
2026-10-13T23:13:32+00:00	8.5%	0.2%	10.8%	37.4%	0.9%
2026-10-13T23:58:43+00:00	8.5%	0.2%	10.8%	37.4%	0.9%
2026-10-14T00:43:51+00:00	8.5%	0.2%	10.8%	37.4%	0.9%
2026-10-14T01:29:07+00:00	9.2%	0.2%	10.8%	37.4%	0.9%
2026-10-14T02:14:17+00:00	9.2%	0.2%	10.8%	37.4%	0.9%
2026-10-14T02:59:31+00:00	9.2%	0.2%	10.8%	37.4%	0.9%
2026-10-14T03:45:25+00:00	9.2%	0.2%	10.8%	37.4%	0.9%
2026-10-14T04:30:44+00:00	9.2%	0.2%	10.8%	37.4%	0.9%
2026-10-14T05:15:51+00:00	9.2%	0.2%	10.8%	37.4%	0.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:58+00:00	9.2%	0.2%	10.8%	37.4%	0.9%
2026-10-14T06:46:11+00:00	9.2%	0.2%	10.8%	37.4%	0.9%
2026-10-14T07:31:25+00:00	7.5%	0.2%	10.8%	37.4%	0.0%
2026-10-14T08:16:33+00:00	7.5%	0.2%	10.8%	37.4%	0.0%
2026-10-14T09:01:44+00:00	7.5%	0.2%	10.8%	37.4%	0.0%
2026-10-14T09:46:51+00:00	7.5%	0.2%	10.8%	37.4%	0.0%
2026-10-14T10:32:15+00:00	7.5%	0.2%	10.8%	2.1%	0.0%
2026-10-17T04:41:02+00:00	9.8%	0.0%	13.6%	33.4%	0.0%
2026-10-17T05:28:21+00:00	9.8%	0.0%	12.1%	33.4%	0.0%
2026-10-17T06:13:34+00:00	9.8%	0.0%	12.1%	33.4%	0.0%
2026-10-17T06:58:44+00:00	9.8%	0.0%	12.1%	33.4%	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	>99%	55.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0000
NWS forecast	95%	57.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-17 03:00	0.0023
IFS HRES	33%	62.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.4436
WeatherNext 2	12%	63.9°F	2.9°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.7726
AIFS Single	10%	65.6°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.8136
IFS Ensemble	<1%	84.1°F	2.9°F	2026-10-16 00:00	1.0000
ICON	<1%	75.8°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	1.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 60°F · KRIC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRIC-20261017-TMAX-LE60
Opened Oct 13 · 08:02 UTC

Original listing: Richmond stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 60°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗