KRIC / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Richmond, VAHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST38%Oct 20 · 10:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

74%

66%

20%

17%

14%

Consensus

38%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 44.2¢Risks 44.20u

EPSNO 55.8¢Risks 55.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +55.80u · EPS −55.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	2.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	86.9%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	38.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	43.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	35.5%	—	—	—	—	44.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	27.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	68.1%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	63.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	61.6%	—	—	—	—	39.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	22.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	44.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	72.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	40.7%	—	53.8%	—	—	48.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	62.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	59.7%	—	62.2%	—	—	37.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	61.1%	—	52.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	49.3%	2.2%	52.7%	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	43.8%	—	68.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	54.9%	57.7%	45.8%	0.0%	—	38.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	40.1%	—	42.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	39.2%	55.1%	41.3%	4.4%	—	21.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	26.2%	—	59.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	39.4%	38.7%	57.6%	0.8%	—	12.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	36.2%	—	53.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	30.9%	23.0%	6.7%	—	14.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	26.3%	0.0%	34.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	45.8%	24.5%	8.0%	—	8.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	26.7%	7.2%	24.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	41.3%	20.8%	5.7%	—	1.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	10.8%	32.6%	13.0%	—	—	3.9%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	41.8%	28.2%	20.9%	16.6%	—	14.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	46.2%	30.9%	22.4%	—	—	18.4%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	27.1%	19.7%	14.2%	—	17.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	42.0%	23.4%	21.1%	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	13.9%	21.9%	7.1%	0.0%	11.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	32.6%	18.3%	19.8%	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	34.1%	24.7%	20.6%	13.1%	—	9.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	29.6%	13.5%	19.8%	0.0%	—	8.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	28.0%	14.0%	22.4%	5.4%	0.0%	6.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	29.3%	21.6%	16.7%	5.5%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	32.0%	19.9%	20.8%	5.5%	6.7%	7.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	25.9%	15.8%	16.6%	4.0%	—	4.6%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	26.2%	19.1%	19.1%	3.2%	4.6%	4.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	32.5%	28.8%	20.1%	4.7%	—	5.8%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	30.5%	40.0%	24.5%	5.1%	6.3%	6.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	26.0%	—	23.6%	2.9%	—	2.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	74%	74.5°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	66%	73.7°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	73.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	33%	72.0°F	1.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	20%	69.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	17%	69.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	14%	68.8°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KRIC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRIC-20261020-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 13 · 08:02 UTC

Original listing: Richmond high ≥ 73°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗