KRIC / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Richmond, VAHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST38%Oct 20 · 10:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

74%

66%

20%

17%

14%

Consensus

38%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 44.2¢Risks 44.20u

EPSNO 55.8¢Risks 55.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +55.80u · EPS −55.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T08:02:45+00:00	74.5%	51.0%	79.5%	61.8%	22.8%
2026-10-13T08:49:38+00:00	74.5%	51.0%	79.5%	61.8%	22.8%
2026-10-13T09:34:44+00:00	74.5%	51.0%	79.5%	61.8%	22.8%
2026-10-13T10:19:51+00:00	74.5%	51.0%	79.5%	61.8%	22.8%
2026-10-14T02:59:31+00:00	66.5%	38.6%	85.6%	51.9%	71.4%
2026-10-14T03:45:25+00:00	66.5%	38.6%	85.6%	51.9%	71.4%
2026-10-14T04:30:44+00:00	66.5%	38.6%	85.6%	51.9%	71.4%
2026-10-14T05:15:51+00:00	66.5%	38.6%	85.6%	51.9%	71.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:58+00:00	66.5%	38.6%	85.6%	51.9%	71.4%
2026-10-14T06:46:11+00:00	66.5%	38.6%	85.6%	51.9%	71.4%
2026-10-14T07:31:25+00:00	65.4%	38.6%	85.6%	51.9%	72.9%
2026-10-14T08:16:33+00:00	65.4%	38.6%	85.6%	51.9%	72.9%
2026-10-14T09:01:44+00:00	65.4%	38.6%	85.6%	51.9%	72.9%
2026-10-14T09:46:51+00:00	65.4%	38.6%	85.6%	51.9%	72.9%
2026-10-14T10:32:15+00:00	65.4%	38.6%	85.6%	32.4%	72.9%
2026-10-14T11:20:37+00:00	65.4%	19.6%	45.7%	32.4%	72.9%
2026-10-14T12:06:11+00:00	65.4%	19.6%	45.7%	32.4%	72.9%
2026-10-14T12:51:18+00:00	65.4%	19.6%	45.7%	32.4%	72.9%
2026-10-14T13:36:26+00:00	52.3%	19.6%	45.7%	32.4%	72.9%
2026-10-14T14:26:48+00:00	53.0%	19.6%	45.7%	32.4%	72.9%
2026-10-20T04:04:00+00:00	70.3%	14.1%	62.1%	17.3%	14.2%
2026-10-20T04:51:19+00:00	70.3%	14.1%	62.1%	17.3%	14.2%
2026-10-20T05:36:26+00:00	70.3%	14.1%	66.0%	17.3%	14.2%
2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:00	70.3%	14.1%	66.0%	17.3%	14.2%
2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00	70.3%	14.1%	66.0%	17.3%	14.2%
2026-10-20T07:51:52+00:00	74.3%	14.1%	66.0%	17.3%	20.4%
2026-10-20T08:37:06+00:00	74.3%	14.1%	66.0%	17.3%	20.4%
2026-10-20T09:22:19+00:00	74.3%	14.1%	66.0%	17.3%	20.4%
2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00	74.3%	14.1%	66.0%	17.3%	20.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	74%	74.5°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	66%	73.7°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	73.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	33%	72.0°F	1.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	20%	69.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	17%	69.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	14%	68.8°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KRIC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRIC-20261020-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 13 · 08:02 UTC

Original listing: Richmond high ≥ 73°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗