KRIC / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Richmond, VAHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST67%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

84%

77%

73%

45%

36%

Consensus

67%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 60.3¢Risks 60.30u

EPSNO 39.7¢Risks 39.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +39.70u · EPS −39.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	7.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	46.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	56.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	72.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	70.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	69.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	17.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	69.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	76.3%	—	16.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	68.6%	—	—	—	—	60.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	88.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	82.7%	—	—	—	—	61.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	78.1%	—	—	—	—	70.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	87.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	82.0%	—	89.6%	—	—	60.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	79.3%	—	84.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	71.6%	—	—	42.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	37.0%	—	70.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	15.5%	3.1%	41.3%	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	57.5%	—	62.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	7.2%	52.1%	43.0%	4.0%	—	36.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	7.8%	—	8.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	10.0%	70.3%	1.6%	27.9%	—	13.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	6.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	3.9%	31.6%	2.7%	33.7%	—	17.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	11.3%	—	12.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	23.6%	56.4%	28.1%	30.9%	—	18.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	59.7%	6.2%	38.0%	—	—	16.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	55.8%	44.2%	48.3%	26.5%	—	21.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	59.3%	34.2%	35.8%	—	—	26.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	59.6%	53.5%	48.2%	31.4%	—	24.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	56.3%	48.2%	58.9%	—	—	24.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	54.6%	45.4%	54.6%	16.0%	—	23.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	50.9%	56.6%	44.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	43.2%	50.0%	52.9%	17.7%	—	27.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	43.0%	51.0%	42.0%	—	—	0.7%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	44.9%	46.9%	49.0%	19.7%	—	28.5%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	45.8%	67.4%	53.2%	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	45.6%	74.5%	55.5%	23.8%	21.3%	26.4%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	44.4%	—	47.8%	0.0%	—	23.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	84%	71.6°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	77%	71.5°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	73%	70.7°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	68%	70.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	69.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	45%	68.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	36%	67.3°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KRIC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRIC-20261022-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 16 · 04:23 UTC

Original listing: Richmond high ≥ 69°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗