KRIC / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Richmond, VAHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST67%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

84%

77%

73%

45%

36%

Consensus

67%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 60.3¢Risks 60.30u

EPSNO 39.7¢Risks 39.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +39.70u · EPS −39.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T14:46:21+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T04:23:54+00:00	27.0%	58.4%	57.8%	22.3%	68.9%
2026-10-16T05:10:23+00:00	27.0%	58.4%	45.3%	22.3%	68.9%
2026-10-16T05:55:49+00:00	27.0%	58.4%	45.3%	22.3%	68.9%
2026-10-16T06:41:01+00:00	27.0%	58.4%	45.3%	22.3%	68.9%
2026-10-16T07:26:12+00:00	32.1%	58.4%	45.3%	22.3%	82.0%
2026-10-16T08:11:22+00:00	32.1%	58.4%	45.3%	22.3%	82.0%
2026-10-16T08:56:32+00:00	32.1%	58.4%	45.3%	22.3%	82.0%
2026-10-16T09:41:40+00:00	32.1%	58.4%	45.3%	22.3%	82.0%
2026-10-16T10:26:47+00:00	32.1%	58.4%	45.3%	22.3%	82.0%
2026-10-16T11:12:06+00:00	32.1%	18.7%	55.1%	22.3%	82.0%
2026-10-16T11:57:36+00:00	32.1%	18.7%	55.1%	22.3%	82.0%
2026-10-16T12:42:47+00:00	32.1%	18.7%	55.1%	22.3%	82.0%
2026-10-16T13:28:04+00:00	13.7%	18.7%	55.1%	7.9%	82.0%
2026-10-16T14:19:40+00:00	13.8%	18.7%	55.1%	7.9%	82.3%
2026-10-20T04:04:00+00:00	76.7%	34.3%	80.6%	50.0%	54.0%
2026-10-20T04:51:19+00:00	76.7%	34.3%	80.6%	50.0%	54.0%
2026-10-20T05:36:26+00:00	76.7%	34.3%	83.0%	50.0%	54.0%
2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:00	76.7%	34.3%	83.0%	50.0%	54.0%
2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00	76.7%	34.3%	83.0%	50.0%	54.0%
2026-10-20T07:51:52+00:00	77.1%	34.3%	83.0%	50.0%	72.2%
2026-10-20T08:37:06+00:00	77.1%	34.3%	83.0%	50.0%	72.2%
2026-10-20T09:22:19+00:00	77.1%	34.3%	83.0%	50.0%	72.2%
2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00	77.1%	34.3%	83.0%	50.0%	72.2%
2026-10-20T10:53:05+00:00	77.1%	36.4%	84.1%	45.1%	72.2%
2026-10-20T11:39:42+00:00	77.1%	36.4%	84.1%	45.1%	72.2%
2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00	77.1%	36.4%	84.1%	45.1%	72.2%
2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00	77.1%	36.4%	84.1%	45.1%	72.2%
2026-10-20T13:55:08+00:00	77.1%	36.4%	84.2%	45.1%	73.2%
2026-10-20T14:46:21+00:00	77.1%	36.4%	84.2%	45.1%	73.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	84%	71.6°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	77%	71.5°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	73%	70.7°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	68%	70.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	69.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	45%	68.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	36%	67.3°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KRIC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRIC-20261022-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 16 · 04:23 UTC

Original listing: Richmond high ≥ 69°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗