KSAN / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Diego, CAHigh ≥ 83°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

72%

51%

49%

30%

15%

Consensus

65%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 44.0¢Risks 43.95u

HRESNO 56.0¢Risks 56.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +56.05u · HRES −56.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	5.9%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	14.8%	—	—	—	—	16.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	22.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	19.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	6.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	42.4%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	55.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	50.0%	—	—	15.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	37.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	43.7%	—	77.0%	—	—	14.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	29.5%	—	85.9%	—	—	11.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	33.3%	—	87.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	34.2%	—	84.1%	—	—	12.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	30.2%	—	79.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	21.9%	88.1%	74.8%	17.1%	—	13.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	18.4%	—	64.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	22.6%	89.0%	56.6%	82.5%	—	11.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	29.3%	—	61.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	31.6%	88.6%	63.5%	75.5%	—	12.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	65.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	24.2%	90.0%	37.5%	80.0%	—	10.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	25.0%	—	62.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	20.1%	81.6%	72.8%	83.8%	—	8.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	23.3%	49.1%	71.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	19.6%	84.9%	63.7%	89.9%	—	8.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	16.6%	83.9%	79.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	19.6%	77.7%	81.0%	77.7%	—	6.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	15.4%	87.8%	73.9%	—	—	6.1%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	15.3%	92.1%	76.0%	95.4%	—	5.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	13.5%	87.6%	71.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	12.3%	76.5%	69.7%	89.2%	—	3.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	11.6%	86.2%	59.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	13.7%	85.1%	45.6%	77.8%	—	4.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	11.8%	81.7%	50.0%	5.4%	—	3.5%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	10.5%	85.3%	65.9%	66.9%	—	2.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	10.2%	88.0%	58.4%	63.0%	—	2.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	10.0%	88.8%	47.5%	36.5%	21.7%	1.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	8.2%	89.1%	56.4%	56.4%	—	1.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	87.4%	54.0%	68.1%	30.7%	1.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	82.7%	62.3%	75.8%	—	0.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	11.5%	87.8%	72.0%	72.0%	22.2%	0.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	91.4%	70.2%	70.2%	—	0.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	8.9%	82.9%	66.8%	56.3%	20.3%	0.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	85.0%	64.5%	69.0%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	95%	86.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	0.0027
ICON	72%	84.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0756
National Blend	67%	83.0°F	1.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.1076
AIFS Single	51%	82.6°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.2401
IFS Ensemble	49%	82.4°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.2601
WeatherNext 2	30%	81.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.4858
IFS HRES	15%	78.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.7157

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 83°F · KSAN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAN-20261018-TMAX-GE83
Opened Oct 11 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: San Diego runs hot-for-here: 83°F+ · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗