San Diego, CAHigh ≥ 83°F
Who takes which side?
Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.
Head-to-head preview
ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.
ICON +56.05u · HRES −56.05u
These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →
Probability history
Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.
View the forecast data
| UTC | AIFS | EPS | WN2 | HRES | ICON |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-11T07:32:49+00:00 | 61.3% | 40.7% | 41.0% | 25.4% | — |
| 2026-10-11T08:18:05+00:00 | 61.3% | 40.7% | 41.0% | 25.4% | — |
| 2026-10-11T09:03:13+00:00 | 61.3% | 40.7% | 41.0% | 25.4% | — |
| 2026-10-11T09:48:19+00:00 | 61.3% | 40.7% | 41.0% | 25.4% | — |
| 2026-10-11T10:34:25+00:00 | 61.3% | 40.7% | 41.0% | 25.4% | — |
| 2026-10-11T11:20:17+00:00 | 61.3% | 27.9% | 51.6% | 25.4% | — |
| 2026-10-11T12:05:24+00:00 | 61.3% | 27.9% | 51.6% | 25.4% | — |
| 2026-10-11T12:50:30+00:00 | 61.3% | 27.9% | 51.6% | 25.4% | — |
| 2026-10-11T13:35:57+00:00 | 57.8% | 27.9% | 51.6% | 25.4% | — |
| 2026-10-11T14:26:16+00:00 | 57.8% | 27.9% | 51.6% | 25.4% | — |
| 2026-10-11T15:12:15+00:00 | 57.8% | 27.1% | 51.6% | 25.4% | — |
| 2026-10-11T15:57:21+00:00 | 57.8% | 27.1% | 51.6% | 25.4% | — |
| 2026-10-11T16:42:28+00:00 | 57.8% | 27.1% | 51.6% | 25.4% | — |
| 2026-10-11T17:28:04+00:00 | 57.8% | 27.1% | 49.2% | 25.4% | — |
| 2026-10-11T18:13:15+00:00 | 57.8% | 27.1% | 49.2% | 25.4% | — |
| 2026-10-11T18:58:21+00:00 | 57.8% | 27.1% | 49.2% | 25.4% | — |
| 2026-10-11T19:43:35+00:00 | 47.9% | 27.1% | 49.2% | 32.4% | 87.2% |
| 2026-10-11T20:28:43+00:00 | 47.9% | 27.1% | 49.2% | 32.4% | 87.2% |
| 2026-10-11T21:13:56+00:00 | 47.9% | 27.1% | 49.2% | 32.4% | 87.2% |
| 2026-10-11T21:59:03+00:00 | 47.9% | 27.1% | 49.2% | 32.4% | 87.2% |
| 2026-10-11T22:44:17+00:00 | 47.9% | 27.1% | 49.2% | 32.4% | 87.2% |
| 2026-10-11T23:29:39+00:00 | 47.9% | 27.1% | 36.6% | 32.4% | 87.2% |
| 2026-10-12T00:14:48+00:00 | 47.9% | 27.1% | 36.6% | 32.4% | 87.2% |
| 2026-10-12T01:00:16+00:00 | 47.9% | 27.1% | 36.6% | 32.4% | 87.2% |
| 2026-10-12T01:45:25+00:00 | 43.6% | 27.1% | 36.6% | 32.4% | 87.2% |
| 2026-10-12T02:30:32+00:00 | 43.6% | 27.1% | 36.6% | 32.4% | 87.2% |
| 2026-10-12T03:15:41+00:00 | 43.6% | 27.1% | 36.6% | 32.4% | 87.2% |
| 2026-10-12T04:02:07+00:00 | 43.6% | 27.1% | 36.6% | 32.4% | 87.2% |
| 2026-10-12T04:47:17+00:00 | 43.6% | 27.1% | 36.6% | 32.4% | 87.2% |
| 2026-10-12T05:32:24+00:00 | 43.6% | 27.1% | 33.6% | 32.4% | 87.2% |
| 2026-10-12T06:17:31+00:00 | 43.6% | 27.1% | 33.6% | 32.4% | 87.2% |
| 2026-10-12T07:02:36+00:00 | 43.6% | 27.1% | 33.6% | 32.4% | 87.2% |
| 2026-10-12T07:49:11+00:00 | 48.5% | 27.1% | 33.6% | 31.8% | 92.7% |
| 2026-10-12T08:34:34+00:00 | 48.5% | 27.1% | 33.6% | 31.8% | 92.7% |
| 2026-10-12T09:19:40+00:00 | 48.5% | 27.1% | 33.6% | 31.8% | 92.7% |
| 2026-10-12T10:05:02+00:00 | 48.5% | 27.1% | 33.6% | 31.8% | 92.7% |
| 2026-10-12T10:50:14+00:00 | 48.5% | 27.1% | 33.6% | 31.8% | 92.7% |
| 2026-10-12T11:35:42+00:00 | 48.5% | 27.1% | 36.3% | 31.8% | 92.7% |
| 2026-10-12T12:20:51+00:00 | 48.5% | 31.6% | 36.3% | 31.8% | 92.7% |
| 2026-10-12T13:06:00+00:00 | 48.5% | 31.6% | 36.3% | 31.8% | 92.7% |
| 2026-10-12T13:51:11+00:00 | 57.5% | 31.6% | 36.3% | 31.8% | 92.7% |
| 2026-10-12T14:41:20+00:00 | 57.5% | 31.9% | 36.3% | 31.8% | 92.7% |
| 2026-10-12T15:27:51+00:00 | 57.5% | 31.9% | 36.3% | 31.8% | 92.7% |
| 2026-10-12T16:12:59+00:00 | 57.5% | 30.5% | 36.3% | 31.8% | 92.7% |
| 2026-10-12T16:58:09+00:00 | 57.5% | 30.5% | 36.3% | 31.8% | 92.7% |
| 2026-10-12T17:43:16+00:00 | 57.5% | 30.5% | 36.3% | 31.8% | 92.7% |
| 2026-10-12T18:28:22+00:00 | 57.5% | 30.5% | 36.3% | 31.8% | 92.7% |
| 2026-10-12T19:13:29+00:00 | 57.5% | 30.5% | 36.3% | 31.8% | 92.7% |
| 2026-10-12T19:58:39+00:00 | 60.4% | 30.5% | 36.3% | 44.5% | 91.9% |
| 2026-10-12T20:43:46+00:00 | 60.4% | 30.5% | 36.3% | 44.5% | 91.9% |
| 2026-10-12T21:28:52+00:00 | 60.4% | 30.5% | 36.3% | 44.5% | 91.9% |
| 2026-10-12T22:13:59+00:00 | 60.4% | 30.5% | 36.3% | 44.5% | 91.9% |
| 2026-10-12T22:59:14+00:00 | 60.4% | 30.5% | 43.1% | 44.5% | 91.9% |
| 2026-10-12T23:44:21+00:00 | 60.4% | 30.5% | 43.1% | 44.5% | 91.9% |
| 2026-10-13T00:29:27+00:00 | 60.4% | 30.5% | 43.1% | 44.5% | 91.9% |
| 2026-10-13T01:14:43+00:00 | 60.4% | 30.5% | 43.1% | 44.5% | 91.8% |
| 2026-10-13T01:59:51+00:00 | 58.2% | 30.5% | 43.1% | 44.5% | 91.8% |
| 2026-10-13T02:44:59+00:00 | 58.2% | 30.5% | 43.1% | 44.5% | 91.8% |
| 2026-10-13T03:30:05+00:00 | 58.2% | 30.5% | 43.1% | 44.5% | 91.8% |
| 2026-10-13T04:16:35+00:00 | 58.2% | 30.5% | 43.1% | 44.5% | 91.8% |
| 2026-10-13T05:01:48+00:00 | 58.2% | 30.5% | 38.8% | 44.5% | 91.8% |
| 2026-10-13T05:46:55+00:00 | 58.2% | 30.5% | 38.8% | 44.5% | 91.8% |
| 2026-10-13T06:32:14+00:00 | 58.2% | 30.5% | 38.8% | 44.5% | 91.8% |
| 2026-10-13T07:17:20+00:00 | 58.2% | 30.5% | 38.8% | 44.5% | 91.8% |
| 2026-10-13T08:04:25+00:00 | 53.2% | 30.5% | 38.8% | 21.3% | 93.7% |
| 2026-10-13T08:49:42+00:00 | 53.2% | 30.5% | 38.8% | 21.3% | 93.7% |
| 2026-10-13T09:34:48+00:00 | 53.2% | 30.5% | 38.8% | 21.3% | 93.7% |
| 2026-10-13T10:20:00+00:00 | 53.2% | 30.5% | 38.8% | 21.3% | 93.7% |
| 2026-10-13T11:05:28+00:00 | 53.2% | 44.9% | 29.5% | 21.3% | 93.7% |
| 2026-10-13T11:50:44+00:00 | 53.2% | 44.9% | 29.5% | 21.3% | 93.7% |
| 2026-10-13T12:35:51+00:00 | 53.2% | 44.9% | 29.5% | 21.3% | 93.7% |
| 2026-10-13T13:20:57+00:00 | 53.2% | 44.9% | 29.5% | 21.3% | 93.7% |
| 2026-10-13T14:06:06+00:00 | 54.8% | 44.9% | 29.6% | 21.3% | 93.7% |
| 2026-10-13T14:56:06+00:00 | 54.8% | 44.9% | 29.6% | 21.3% | 93.7% |
| 2026-10-13T15:41:57+00:00 | 54.8% | 44.9% | 29.6% | 21.3% | 93.7% |
| 2026-10-13T16:27:06+00:00 | 54.8% | 44.9% | 29.6% | 21.6% | 93.7% |
| 2026-10-13T17:12:14+00:00 | 54.8% | 44.9% | 34.9% | 21.6% | 93.7% |
| 2026-10-13T17:57:20+00:00 | 54.8% | 44.9% | 34.9% | 21.6% | 93.7% |
| 2026-10-13T18:42:25+00:00 | 54.8% | 44.9% | 34.9% | 21.6% | 93.7% |
| 2026-10-13T19:27:31+00:00 | 50.0% | 44.9% | 34.9% | 21.6% | 87.9% |
| 2026-10-13T20:12:40+00:00 | 50.0% | 44.9% | 34.9% | 21.6% | 87.9% |
| 2026-10-13T20:57:46+00:00 | 50.0% | 44.9% | 34.9% | 21.6% | 87.9% |
| 2026-10-13T21:43:20+00:00 | 50.0% | 44.9% | 34.9% | 21.6% | 87.9% |
| 2026-10-13T22:28:27+00:00 | 50.0% | 44.9% | 34.9% | 26.9% | 87.9% |
| 2026-10-13T23:13:40+00:00 | 50.0% | 44.9% | 30.5% | 26.6% | 87.9% |
| 2026-10-13T23:58:49+00:00 | 50.0% | 44.9% | 30.5% | 26.6% | 87.9% |
| 2026-10-14T00:43:56+00:00 | 50.0% | 44.9% | 30.5% | 26.6% | 87.9% |
| 2026-10-14T01:29:15+00:00 | 54.0% | 44.9% | 30.5% | 26.6% | 87.9% |
| 2026-10-14T02:14:22+00:00 | 54.0% | 44.9% | 30.5% | 26.6% | 87.9% |
| 2026-10-14T03:00:16+00:00 | 54.0% | 44.9% | 30.5% | 26.6% | 87.9% |
| 2026-10-14T03:45:41+00:00 | 54.0% | 44.9% | 30.5% | 26.6% | 87.9% |
| 2026-10-14T04:30:47+00:00 | 54.0% | 44.9% | 30.5% | 26.6% | 87.9% |
| 2026-10-14T05:15:56+00:00 | 54.0% | 44.9% | 30.5% | 26.6% | 87.9% |
| 2026-10-14T06:01:02+00:00 | 54.0% | 44.9% | 30.5% | 26.6% | 87.9% |
| 2026-10-14T06:46:21+00:00 | 54.0% | 44.9% | 30.5% | 26.6% | 87.9% |
| 2026-10-14T07:31:30+00:00 | 50.0% | 44.9% | 30.5% | 26.6% | 90.4% |
| 2026-10-14T08:16:40+00:00 | 50.0% | 44.9% | 30.5% | 26.6% | 90.4% |
| 2026-10-14T09:01:49+00:00 | 50.0% | 44.9% | 30.5% | 26.6% | 90.4% |
| 2026-10-14T09:46:56+00:00 | 50.0% | 44.9% | 30.5% | 26.6% | 90.4% |
| 2026-10-14T10:34:59+00:00 | 50.0% | 44.9% | 30.5% | 19.5% | 90.4% |
| 2026-10-14T11:21:05+00:00 | 50.0% | 44.3% | 34.3% | 19.5% | 90.4% |
| 2026-10-14T12:06:16+00:00 | 50.0% | 44.3% | 34.3% | 19.5% | 90.4% |
| 2026-10-14T12:51:24+00:00 | 50.0% | 44.3% | 34.3% | 19.5% | 90.4% |
| 2026-10-14T13:36:32+00:00 | 47.4% | 44.3% | 34.3% | 19.5% | 90.4% |
| 2026-10-14T14:26:53+00:00 | 47.4% | 44.3% | 34.3% | 19.5% | 90.7% |
| 2026-10-14T15:12:47+00:00 | 47.4% | 45.5% | 34.3% | 19.5% | 90.7% |
| 2026-10-14T15:57:59+00:00 | 47.4% | 45.5% | 34.3% | 19.5% | 90.7% |
| 2026-10-14T16:43:07+00:00 | 47.4% | 45.5% | 34.3% | 19.5% | 90.7% |
| 2026-10-14T17:28:17+00:00 | 47.4% | 45.5% | 38.4% | 19.5% | 90.7% |
| 2026-10-14T18:13:22+00:00 | 47.4% | 45.5% | 38.4% | 19.5% | 90.7% |
| 2026-10-14T18:58:30+00:00 | 47.4% | 45.5% | 38.4% | 19.5% | 90.7% |
| 2026-10-14T19:43:41+00:00 | 51.7% | 45.5% | 38.4% | 24.2% | 85.0% |
| 2026-10-14T20:28:53+00:00 | 51.7% | 45.5% | 38.4% | 24.2% | 85.0% |
| 2026-10-14T21:13:59+00:00 | 51.7% | 45.5% | 38.4% | 24.2% | 85.0% |
| 2026-10-14T21:59:06+00:00 | 51.7% | 45.5% | 38.4% | 24.2% | 85.0% |
| 2026-10-14T22:44:12+00:00 | 51.7% | 45.5% | 38.4% | 24.2% | 85.0% |
| 2026-10-14T23:29:35+00:00 | 51.7% | 45.5% | 31.4% | 24.2% | 85.0% |
| 2026-10-15T00:15:28+00:00 | 51.7% | 45.5% | 31.4% | 24.2% | 85.0% |
| 2026-10-15T01:01:13+00:00 | 51.7% | 45.5% | 31.4% | 24.2% | 85.0% |
| 2026-10-15T01:46:24+00:00 | 47.4% | 45.5% | 31.4% | 24.2% | 85.0% |
| 2026-10-15T02:31:32+00:00 | 47.4% | 45.5% | 31.4% | 24.2% | 85.0% |
| 2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:00 | 47.4% | 45.5% | 31.4% | 24.2% | 85.0% |
| 2026-10-15T04:02:41+00:00 | 47.4% | 45.5% | 31.4% | 24.2% | 85.0% |
| 2026-10-15T04:48:13+00:00 | 47.4% | 45.5% | 31.4% | 24.2% | 85.0% |
| 2026-10-15T05:33:24+00:00 | 47.4% | 45.5% | 39.4% | 24.2% | 85.0% |
| 2026-10-15T06:18:31+00:00 | 47.4% | 45.5% | 39.4% | 24.2% | 85.0% |
| 2026-10-15T07:03:42+00:00 | 47.4% | 45.5% | 39.4% | 24.2% | 85.0% |
| 2026-10-15T07:50:40+00:00 | 48.1% | 45.5% | 39.4% | 19.8% | 94.9% |
| 2026-10-15T08:35:53+00:00 | 48.1% | 45.5% | 39.4% | 19.8% | 94.9% |
| 2026-10-15T09:21:48+00:00 | 48.1% | 45.5% | 39.4% | 19.8% | 94.9% |
| 2026-10-15T10:07:44+00:00 | 48.1% | 45.5% | 39.4% | 19.8% | 94.9% |
| 2026-10-15T10:53:49+00:00 | 48.1% | 45.5% | 40.6% | 19.8% | 94.9% |
| 2026-10-15T11:39:43+00:00 | 48.1% | 45.5% | 40.6% | 19.8% | 94.9% |
| 2026-10-15T12:24:59+00:00 | 48.1% | 48.9% | 40.6% | 19.8% | 94.9% |
| 2026-10-15T13:10:41+00:00 | 48.1% | 48.9% | 40.6% | 19.8% | 94.9% |
| 2026-10-15T13:55:56+00:00 | 45.4% | 48.9% | 40.6% | 19.8% | 94.9% |
| 2026-10-15T14:48:28+00:00 | 45.4% | 48.9% | 40.6% | 19.8% | 94.9% |
| 2026-10-15T15:34:45+00:00 | 45.4% | 50.0% | 40.6% | 19.8% | 94.9% |
| 2026-10-15T16:20:17+00:00 | 45.4% | 50.0% | 40.6% | 19.8% | 94.9% |
| 2026-10-15T17:05:26+00:00 | 45.4% | 50.0% | 29.7% | 19.8% | 94.9% |
| 2026-10-15T17:50:49+00:00 | 45.4% | 50.0% | 29.7% | 19.8% | 94.9% |
| 2026-10-15T18:36:03+00:00 | 45.4% | 50.0% | 29.7% | 19.8% | 94.9% |
| 2026-10-15T19:21:11+00:00 | 45.4% | 50.0% | 29.7% | 19.8% | 94.9% |
| 2026-10-15T20:06:24+00:00 | 45.4% | 50.0% | 29.7% | 19.8% | 81.1% |
| 2026-10-15T20:51:39+00:00 | 45.4% | 50.0% | 29.7% | 19.8% | 81.1% |
| 2026-10-15T21:36:46+00:00 | 45.4% | 50.0% | 29.7% | 19.8% | 81.1% |
| 2026-10-15T22:21:56+00:00 | 45.4% | 50.0% | 29.7% | 19.8% | 81.1% |
| 2026-10-15T23:07:06+00:00 | 45.4% | 50.0% | 32.8% | 19.8% | 81.1% |
| 2026-10-15T23:52:19+00:00 | 45.4% | 50.0% | 32.8% | 19.8% | 81.1% |
| 2026-10-16T00:37:28+00:00 | 45.4% | 50.0% | 32.8% | 19.8% | 81.1% |
| 2026-10-16T01:22:54+00:00 | 45.4% | 50.0% | 32.8% | 19.8% | 81.1% |
| 2026-10-16T02:08:22+00:00 | 45.4% | 50.0% | 32.8% | 19.8% | 81.1% |
| 2026-10-16T02:53:36+00:00 | 45.4% | 50.0% | 32.8% | 19.8% | 81.1% |
| 2026-10-16T03:38:46+00:00 | 45.4% | 50.0% | 32.8% | 19.8% | 81.1% |
| 2026-10-16T04:25:13+00:00 | 45.4% | 50.0% | 32.8% | 19.8% | 81.1% |
| 2026-10-16T05:10:34+00:00 | 45.4% | 50.0% | 36.1% | 19.8% | 81.1% |
| 2026-10-16T05:55:59+00:00 | 45.4% | 50.0% | 36.1% | 19.8% | 81.1% |
| 2026-10-16T06:41:09+00:00 | 45.4% | 50.0% | 36.1% | 19.8% | 81.1% |
| 2026-10-16T07:26:19+00:00 | 49.0% | 50.0% | 36.1% | 19.8% | 83.9% |
| 2026-10-16T08:11:30+00:00 | 49.0% | 50.0% | 36.1% | 19.8% | 83.9% |
| 2026-10-16T08:56:38+00:00 | 49.0% | 50.0% | 36.1% | 19.8% | 83.9% |
| 2026-10-16T09:41:44+00:00 | 49.0% | 50.0% | 36.1% | 19.8% | 83.9% |
| 2026-10-16T10:27:00+00:00 | 49.0% | 50.0% | 36.1% | 19.8% | 83.9% |
| 2026-10-16T11:12:28+00:00 | 49.0% | 52.1% | 37.4% | 19.8% | 83.9% |
| 2026-10-16T11:57:44+00:00 | 49.0% | 52.1% | 37.4% | 19.8% | 83.9% |
| 2026-10-16T12:42:52+00:00 | 49.0% | 52.1% | 37.4% | 19.8% | 83.9% |
| 2026-10-16T13:29:03+00:00 | 46.1% | 52.1% | 37.4% | 17.7% | 83.9% |
| 2026-10-16T14:20:02+00:00 | 46.1% | 52.1% | 37.4% | 17.7% | 83.9% |
| 2026-10-16T15:05:50+00:00 | 46.1% | 55.2% | 37.4% | 17.7% | 83.9% |
| 2026-10-16T15:50:59+00:00 | 46.1% | 55.2% | 37.4% | 17.7% | 83.9% |
| 2026-10-16T16:36:15+00:00 | 46.1% | 55.2% | 37.4% | 17.7% | 83.9% |
| 2026-10-16T17:21:33+00:00 | 46.1% | 55.2% | 39.8% | 17.7% | 83.9% |
| 2026-10-16T18:06:40+00:00 | 46.1% | 55.2% | 39.8% | 17.7% | 83.9% |
| 2026-10-16T18:51:47+00:00 | 46.1% | 55.2% | 39.8% | 17.7% | 83.9% |
| 2026-10-16T19:37:18+00:00 | 46.1% | 55.2% | 39.8% | 17.7% | 82.4% |
| 2026-10-16T20:22:43+00:00 | 46.1% | 55.2% | 39.8% | 17.7% | 82.4% |
| 2026-10-16T21:07:49+00:00 | 46.1% | 55.2% | 39.8% | 17.7% | 82.4% |
| 2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00 | 46.1% | 55.2% | 39.8% | 17.7% | 82.4% |
| 2026-10-16T22:38:11+00:00 | 46.1% | 55.2% | 39.8% | 22.5% | 82.4% |
| 2026-10-16T23:23:40+00:00 | 46.1% | 55.2% | 30.3% | 22.5% | 82.4% |
| 2026-10-17T00:09:45+00:00 | 46.1% | 55.2% | 30.3% | 22.5% | 82.4% |
| 2026-10-17T00:55:01+00:00 | 46.1% | 55.2% | 30.3% | 22.5% | 82.4% |
| 2026-10-17T01:40:14+00:00 | 46.1% | 55.2% | 30.3% | 22.5% | 82.4% |
| 2026-10-17T02:25:24+00:00 | 46.1% | 55.2% | 30.3% | 22.5% | 82.4% |
| 2026-10-17T03:10:32+00:00 | 46.1% | 55.2% | 30.3% | 22.5% | 82.4% |
| 2026-10-17T03:55:43+00:00 | 46.1% | 55.2% | 30.3% | 22.5% | 82.4% |
| 2026-10-17T04:42:39+00:00 | 46.1% | 55.2% | 30.3% | 22.5% | 82.4% |
| 2026-10-17T05:28:30+00:00 | 46.1% | 55.2% | 37.4% | 22.5% | 82.4% |
| 2026-10-17T06:13:40+00:00 | 46.1% | 55.2% | 37.4% | 22.5% | 82.4% |
| 2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:00 | 46.1% | 55.2% | 37.4% | 22.5% | 82.4% |
| 2026-10-17T07:45:19+00:00 | 47.0% | 55.2% | 37.4% | 10.8% | 76.9% |
| 2026-10-17T08:31:11+00:00 | 47.0% | 55.2% | 37.4% | 10.8% | 76.9% |
| 2026-10-17T09:16:45+00:00 | 47.0% | 55.2% | 37.4% | 10.8% | 76.9% |
| 2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00 | 47.0% | 55.2% | 37.4% | 10.8% | 76.9% |
| 2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00 | 47.0% | 55.2% | 37.4% | 10.8% | 76.9% |
| 2026-10-17T11:32:18+00:00 | 47.0% | 43.3% | 32.8% | 10.8% | 76.9% |
| 2026-10-17T12:17:30+00:00 | 47.0% | 43.3% | 32.8% | 10.8% | 76.9% |
| 2026-10-17T13:02:38+00:00 | 47.0% | 43.3% | 32.8% | 10.8% | 76.9% |
| 2026-10-17T13:47:57+00:00 | 46.0% | 43.3% | 32.8% | 10.8% | 76.9% |
| 2026-10-17T14:39:20+00:00 | 46.0% | 43.4% | 32.8% | 10.8% | 77.0% |
| 2026-10-17T15:25:20+00:00 | 46.0% | 49.0% | 32.8% | 10.8% | 77.0% |
| 2026-10-17T16:10:35+00:00 | 46.0% | 49.0% | 32.8% | 10.8% | 77.0% |
| 2026-10-17T16:55:44+00:00 | 46.0% | 49.0% | 21.5% | 10.8% | 77.0% |
| 2026-10-17T17:40:52+00:00 | 46.0% | 49.0% | 21.5% | 10.8% | 77.0% |
| 2026-10-17T18:25:59+00:00 | 46.0% | 49.0% | 21.5% | 10.8% | 77.0% |
| 2026-10-17T19:11:06+00:00 | 46.0% | 49.0% | 21.5% | 10.8% | 77.0% |
| 2026-10-17T19:56:20+00:00 | 56.1% | 49.0% | 21.5% | 15.4% | 72.5% |
| 2026-10-17T20:41:33+00:00 | 56.1% | 49.0% | 21.5% | 15.4% | 72.5% |
| 2026-10-17T21:26:40+00:00 | 56.1% | 49.0% | 21.5% | 15.4% | 72.5% |
| 2026-10-17T22:11:57+00:00 | 56.1% | 49.0% | 21.5% | 15.4% | 72.5% |
| 2026-10-17T22:57:07+00:00 | 56.1% | 49.0% | 39.2% | 15.4% | 72.5% |
| 2026-10-17T23:42:15+00:00 | 56.1% | 49.0% | 39.2% | 15.4% | 72.5% |
| 2026-10-18T00:27:28+00:00 | 56.1% | 49.0% | 39.2% | 15.4% | 72.5% |
| 2026-10-18T01:12:58+00:00 | 56.1% | 49.0% | 39.2% | 15.4% | 72.5% |
| 2026-10-18T01:58:16+00:00 | 51.0% | 49.0% | 39.2% | 15.4% | 72.5% |
| 2026-10-18T02:43:24+00:00 | 51.0% | 49.0% | 39.2% | 15.4% | 72.5% |
| 2026-10-18T03:28:32+00:00 | 51.0% | 49.0% | 39.2% | 15.4% | 72.5% |
| 2026-10-18T04:14:58+00:00 | 51.0% | 49.0% | 39.2% | 15.4% | 72.5% |
| 2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:00 | 51.0% | 49.0% | 30.3% | 15.4% | 72.5% |
| 2026-10-18T05:45:23+00:00 | 51.0% | 49.0% | 30.3% | 15.4% | 72.5% |
| 2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00 | 51.0% | 49.0% | 30.3% | 15.4% | 72.5% |
| 2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:00 | 51.0% | 49.0% | 30.3% | 15.4% | 72.5% |
Forecasts & evidence
| MODEL | YES | MEAN | SPREAD σ | INITIALIZATION UTC | BRIER ↓ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NWS forecast | 95% | 86.0°F | 2.1°F | 2026-10-18 03:00 | 0.0027 |
| ICON | 72% | 84.6°F | 3.5°F | 2026-10-17 12:00 | 0.0756 |
| National Blend | 67% | 83.0°F | 1.1°F | 2026-10-18 00:00 | 0.1076 |
| AIFS Single | 51% | 82.6°F | 3.9°F | 2026-10-17 18:00 | 0.2401 |
| IFS Ensemble | 49% | 82.4°F | 3.9°F | 2026-10-17 00:00 | 0.2601 |
| WeatherNext 2 | 30% | 81.0°F | 2.9°F | 2026-10-17 18:00 | 0.4858 |
| IFS HRES | 15% | 78.7°F | 3.7°F | 2026-10-17 12:00 | 0.7157 |
Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.
High ≥ 83°F · KSAN
Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.
WP-KSAN-20261018-TMAX-GE83
Opened Oct 11 · 07:32 UTC
Original listing: San Diego runs hot-for-here: 83°F+ · Sun Oct 18
Original prop, full history & receipt ↗