KSAN / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Diego, CAHigh ≥ 82°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

44%

40%

27%

11%

Consensus

20%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 25.8¢Risks 25.80u

HRESNO 74.2¢Risks 74.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +74.20u · HRES −74.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	17.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	13.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	38.1%	—	—	—	—	18.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	44.3%	—	—	—	—	16.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	32.4%	—	—	—	—	15.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	32.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	13.0%	—	31.3%	—	—	13.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	74.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	23.4%	—	—	—	—	13.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	16.8%	—	57.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	11.3%	—	42.2%	—	—	11.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	7.2%	—	26.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	8.2%	0.2%	17.6%	—	—	9.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	11.7%	—	16.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	8.7%	83.4%	29.8%	23.0%	—	11.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	8.0%	—	24.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	7.1%	67.0%	22.1%	55.1%	—	9.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	10.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	4.6%	54.6%	26.4%	33.0%	—	7.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	59.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	7.2%	50.0%	59.5%	49.2%	—	7.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	8.8%	—	52.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	9.0%	50.0%	38.5%	67.0%	—	8.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	7.5%	45.7%	31.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	5.7%	59.6%	18.4%	35.4%	—	5.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	5.0%	51.8%	21.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	5.8%	45.4%	24.4%	42.7%	—	2.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	4.8%	39.7%	13.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	5.4%	47.1%	18.3%	39.4%	—	3.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	4.2%	46.0%	20.4%	—	—	2.4%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	4.0%	38.8%	14.5%	34.0%	—	2.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	3.3%	44.7%	8.8%	—	—	1.5%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	2.9%	47.8%	15.5%	11.4%	0.0%	0.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	3.5%	52.2%	13.5%	0.5%	—	0.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	4.2%	47.7%	14.0%	24.2%	11.6%	0.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	4.3%	48.8%	11.9%	20.8%	—	0.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	4.6%	56.2%	15.9%	28.7%	—	0.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	3.0%	57.7%	18.2%	28.0%	—	0.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	2.8%	54.0%	21.0%	27.3%	9.5%	0.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	47.2%	27.6%	28.8%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	1.3%	45.7%	29.3%	38.6%	7.8%	0.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	44.0%	19.2%	26.0%	—	0.1%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	43.7%	11.7%	27.6%	8.3%	0.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	53.3%	14.1%	35.5%	—	0.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	56%	82.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 03:00	0.1954
ICON	44%	81.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.3091
IFS Ensemble	40%	80.7°F	3.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.3588
AIFS Single	27%	79.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.5344
National Blend	12%	79.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.7656
WeatherNext 2	11%	77.7°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.7921
IFS HRES	7%	75.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.8612

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KSAN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAN-20261019-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 13 · 04:16 UTC

Original listing: San Diego high ≥ 82°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗