KSAN / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Diego, CAHigh ≥ 82°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

44%

40%

27%

11%

Consensus

20%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 25.8¢Risks 25.80u

HRESNO 74.2¢Risks 74.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +74.20u · HRES −74.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T14:39:20+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T04:16:35+00:00	26.1%	53.7%	19.3%	32.9%	84.4%
2026-10-13T05:01:48+00:00	26.1%	53.7%	13.9%	32.9%	84.4%
2026-10-13T05:46:55+00:00	26.1%	53.7%	13.9%	32.9%	84.4%
2026-10-13T06:32:14+00:00	26.1%	53.7%	13.9%	32.9%	84.4%
2026-10-13T07:17:20+00:00	26.1%	53.7%	13.9%	32.9%	84.4%
2026-10-13T08:04:25+00:00	23.1%	53.7%	13.9%	20.1%	79.9%
2026-10-13T08:49:42+00:00	23.1%	53.7%	13.9%	20.1%	79.9%
2026-10-13T09:34:48+00:00	23.1%	53.7%	13.9%	20.1%	79.9%
2026-10-13T10:20:00+00:00	23.1%	53.7%	13.9%	20.1%	79.9%
2026-10-13T11:05:28+00:00	23.1%	56.3%	19.1%	20.1%	79.9%
2026-10-13T11:50:44+00:00	23.1%	56.3%	19.1%	20.1%	79.9%
2026-10-13T12:35:51+00:00	23.1%	56.3%	19.1%	20.1%	79.9%
2026-10-13T13:20:57+00:00	23.1%	56.3%	19.1%	20.1%	79.9%
2026-10-13T14:06:06+00:00	23.7%	56.3%	19.1%	20.1%	80.3%
2026-10-13T14:56:06+00:00	23.7%	56.3%	19.1%	20.1%	80.3%
2026-10-13T15:41:57+00:00	23.7%	56.3%	19.1%	20.1%	80.3%
2026-10-13T16:27:06+00:00	23.7%	56.3%	19.1%	20.1%	80.3%
2026-10-13T17:12:14+00:00	23.7%	56.3%	18.5%	20.1%	80.3%
2026-10-13T17:57:20+00:00	23.7%	56.3%	18.5%	20.1%	80.3%
2026-10-13T18:42:25+00:00	23.7%	56.3%	18.5%	20.1%	80.3%
2026-10-13T19:27:31+00:00	19.3%	56.3%	18.5%	20.1%	72.5%
2026-10-13T20:12:40+00:00	19.3%	56.3%	18.5%	20.1%	72.5%
2026-10-13T20:57:46+00:00	19.3%	56.3%	18.5%	20.1%	72.5%
2026-10-13T21:43:20+00:00	19.3%	56.3%	18.5%	20.1%	72.5%
2026-10-13T22:28:28+00:00	19.3%	56.3%	18.5%	15.4%	72.5%
2026-10-13T23:13:40+00:00	19.3%	56.3%	15.3%	15.4%	72.4%
2026-10-13T23:58:49+00:00	19.3%	56.3%	15.3%	15.4%	72.4%
2026-10-14T00:43:56+00:00	19.3%	56.3%	15.3%	15.4%	72.4%
2026-10-14T01:29:15+00:00	24.3%	56.3%	15.3%	15.4%	72.4%
2026-10-14T02:14:22+00:00	24.3%	56.3%	15.3%	15.4%	72.4%
2026-10-14T03:00:16+00:00	24.3%	56.3%	15.3%	15.4%	72.4%
2026-10-14T03:45:41+00:00	24.3%	56.3%	15.3%	15.4%	72.4%
2026-10-14T04:30:47+00:00	24.3%	56.3%	15.3%	15.4%	72.4%
2026-10-14T05:15:56+00:00	24.3%	56.3%	15.3%	15.4%	72.4%
2026-10-14T06:01:02+00:00	24.3%	56.3%	15.3%	15.4%	72.4%
2026-10-14T06:46:21+00:00	24.3%	56.3%	15.3%	15.4%	72.4%
2026-10-14T07:31:30+00:00	25.9%	56.3%	15.3%	15.4%	67.1%
2026-10-14T08:16:40+00:00	25.9%	56.3%	15.3%	15.4%	67.1%
2026-10-14T09:01:49+00:00	25.9%	56.3%	15.3%	15.4%	67.1%
2026-10-14T09:46:56+00:00	25.9%	56.3%	15.3%	15.4%	67.1%
2026-10-14T10:34:59+00:00	25.9%	56.3%	15.3%	15.7%	67.1%
2026-10-14T11:21:05+00:00	25.9%	49.0%	17.8%	15.7%	67.1%
2026-10-14T12:06:16+00:00	25.9%	49.0%	17.8%	15.7%	67.1%
2026-10-14T12:51:24+00:00	25.9%	49.0%	17.8%	15.7%	67.1%
2026-10-14T13:36:32+00:00	30.7%	49.0%	17.8%	15.7%	67.1%
2026-10-14T14:26:53+00:00	30.7%	49.0%	17.8%	15.7%	66.9%
2026-10-14T15:12:47+00:00	30.7%	50.0%	17.8%	15.7%	66.9%
2026-10-14T15:57:59+00:00	30.7%	50.0%	17.8%	15.7%	66.9%
2026-10-14T16:43:07+00:00	30.7%	50.0%	17.8%	15.7%	66.9%
2026-10-14T17:28:17+00:00	30.7%	50.0%	17.8%	15.7%	66.9%
2026-10-14T18:13:22+00:00	30.7%	50.0%	17.8%	15.7%	66.9%
2026-10-14T18:58:30+00:00	30.7%	50.0%	17.8%	15.7%	66.9%
2026-10-14T19:43:41+00:00	31.5%	50.0%	17.8%	25.0%	66.9%
2026-10-14T20:28:53+00:00	31.5%	50.0%	17.8%	25.0%	66.9%
2026-10-14T21:13:59+00:00	31.5%	50.0%	17.8%	25.0%	66.9%
2026-10-14T21:59:06+00:00	31.5%	50.0%	17.8%	25.0%	66.9%
2026-10-14T22:44:12+00:00	31.5%	50.0%	17.8%	25.0%	66.9%
2026-10-14T23:29:35+00:00	31.5%	50.0%	17.8%	25.0%	66.9%
2026-10-15T00:15:28+00:00	31.5%	50.0%	17.8%	25.0%	66.9%
2026-10-15T01:01:13+00:00	31.5%	50.0%	17.8%	25.0%	66.9%
2026-10-15T01:46:24+00:00	30.0%	50.0%	17.8%	25.0%	66.9%
2026-10-15T02:31:32+00:00	30.0%	50.0%	17.8%	25.0%	66.9%
2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:00	30.0%	50.0%	17.8%	25.0%	66.9%
2026-10-15T04:02:41+00:00	30.0%	50.0%	17.8%	25.0%	66.9%
2026-10-15T04:48:13+00:00	30.0%	50.0%	17.8%	25.0%	66.9%
2026-10-15T05:33:24+00:00	30.0%	50.0%	14.8%	25.0%	66.9%
2026-10-15T06:18:31+00:00	30.0%	50.0%	14.8%	25.0%	66.9%
2026-10-15T07:03:42+00:00	30.0%	50.0%	14.8%	25.0%	66.9%
2026-10-15T07:50:40+00:00	24.3%	50.0%	14.8%	14.5%	71.9%
2026-10-15T08:35:53+00:00	24.3%	50.0%	14.8%	14.5%	71.9%
2026-10-15T09:21:48+00:00	24.3%	50.0%	14.8%	14.5%	71.9%
2026-10-15T10:07:44+00:00	24.3%	50.0%	14.8%	14.5%	71.9%
2026-10-15T10:53:49+00:00	24.3%	50.0%	16.0%	14.5%	71.9%
2026-10-15T11:39:43+00:00	24.3%	50.0%	16.0%	14.5%	71.9%
2026-10-15T12:24:59+00:00	24.3%	47.5%	16.0%	14.5%	71.9%
2026-10-15T13:10:41+00:00	24.3%	47.5%	16.0%	14.5%	71.9%
2026-10-15T13:55:56+00:00	24.3%	47.5%	16.0%	14.5%	71.8%
2026-10-15T14:48:28+00:00	24.3%	47.5%	16.0%	14.5%	71.8%
2026-10-15T15:34:45+00:00	24.3%	48.8%	16.0%	14.5%	71.8%
2026-10-15T16:20:17+00:00	24.3%	48.8%	16.0%	14.5%	71.8%
2026-10-15T17:05:26+00:00	24.3%	48.8%	11.3%	14.5%	71.8%
2026-10-15T17:50:49+00:00	24.3%	48.8%	11.3%	14.5%	71.8%
2026-10-15T18:36:03+00:00	24.3%	48.8%	11.3%	14.5%	71.8%
2026-10-15T19:21:11+00:00	24.3%	48.8%	11.3%	14.5%	71.8%
2026-10-15T20:06:24+00:00	27.8%	48.8%	11.3%	10.0%	59.8%
2026-10-15T20:51:39+00:00	27.8%	48.8%	11.3%	10.0%	59.8%
2026-10-15T21:36:46+00:00	27.8%	48.8%	11.3%	10.0%	59.8%
2026-10-15T22:21:56+00:00	27.8%	48.8%	11.3%	10.0%	59.8%
2026-10-15T23:07:06+00:00	27.8%	48.8%	12.9%	10.0%	59.8%
2026-10-15T23:52:19+00:00	27.8%	48.8%	12.9%	10.0%	59.8%
2026-10-16T00:37:28+00:00	27.8%	48.8%	12.9%	10.0%	59.8%
2026-10-16T01:22:54+00:00	25.7%	48.8%	12.9%	10.0%	59.8%
2026-10-16T02:08:22+00:00	25.7%	48.8%	12.9%	10.0%	59.8%
2026-10-16T02:53:36+00:00	25.7%	48.8%	12.9%	10.0%	59.8%
2026-10-16T03:38:46+00:00	25.7%	48.8%	12.9%	10.0%	59.8%
2026-10-16T04:25:13+00:00	25.7%	48.8%	12.9%	10.0%	59.8%
2026-10-16T05:10:34+00:00	25.7%	48.8%	14.1%	10.0%	59.8%
2026-10-16T05:55:59+00:00	25.7%	48.8%	14.1%	10.0%	59.8%
2026-10-16T06:41:09+00:00	25.7%	48.8%	14.1%	10.0%	59.8%
2026-10-16T07:26:19+00:00	28.0%	48.8%	14.1%	10.0%	54.0%
2026-10-16T08:11:30+00:00	28.0%	48.8%	14.1%	10.0%	54.0%
2026-10-16T08:56:39+00:00	28.0%	48.8%	14.1%	10.0%	54.0%
2026-10-16T09:41:44+00:00	28.0%	48.8%	14.1%	10.0%	54.0%
2026-10-16T10:27:00+00:00	28.0%	48.8%	14.1%	10.0%	54.0%
2026-10-16T11:12:28+00:00	28.0%	52.4%	13.0%	10.0%	54.0%
2026-10-16T11:57:44+00:00	28.0%	52.4%	13.0%	10.0%	54.0%
2026-10-16T12:42:52+00:00	28.0%	52.4%	13.0%	10.0%	54.0%
2026-10-16T13:29:03+00:00	25.6%	52.4%	13.0%	13.6%	54.0%
2026-10-16T14:20:02+00:00	25.6%	52.4%	13.0%	13.6%	54.0%
2026-10-17T04:42:39+00:00	24.9%	54.6%	11.8%	13.6%	46.0%
2026-10-17T05:28:30+00:00	24.9%	54.6%	10.6%	13.6%	46.0%
2026-10-17T06:13:40+00:00	24.9%	54.6%	10.6%	13.6%	46.0%
2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:00	24.9%	54.6%	10.6%	13.6%	46.0%
2026-10-17T07:45:19+00:00	23.1%	54.6%	10.6%	7.2%	44.4%
2026-10-17T08:31:11+00:00	23.1%	54.6%	10.6%	7.2%	44.4%
2026-10-17T09:16:45+00:00	23.1%	54.6%	10.6%	7.2%	44.4%
2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00	23.1%	54.6%	10.6%	7.2%	44.4%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00	23.1%	54.6%	10.6%	7.2%	44.4%
2026-10-17T11:32:18+00:00	23.1%	39.9%	11.0%	7.2%	44.4%
2026-10-17T12:17:30+00:00	23.1%	39.9%	11.0%	7.2%	44.4%
2026-10-17T13:02:38+00:00	23.1%	39.9%	11.0%	7.2%	44.4%
2026-10-17T13:47:57+00:00	27.0%	39.9%	11.0%	7.2%	44.4%
2026-10-17T14:39:20+00:00	26.9%	40.1%	11.0%	7.2%	44.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	56%	82.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 03:00	0.1954
ICON	44%	81.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.3091
IFS Ensemble	40%	80.7°F	3.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.3588
AIFS Single	27%	79.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.5344
National Blend	12%	79.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.7656
WeatherNext 2	11%	77.7°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.7921
IFS HRES	7%	75.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.8612

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KSAN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAN-20261019-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 13 · 04:16 UTC

Original listing: San Diego high ≥ 82°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗