KSAN / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Diego, CAHigh ≥ 90°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 13 · 18:42 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

39%

<1%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 19.6¢Risks 19.60u

WN2NO 80.4¢Risks 80.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +80.40u · WN2 −80.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.9%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	2.7%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	2.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	2.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	2.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	2.3%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	3.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	3.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	4.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	8.0%	—	—	—	—	2.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	1.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	1.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	4.4%	—	—	1.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	27.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	0.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	13.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	6.7%	—	—	0.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	2.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.0%	1.1%	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	0.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	33.0%	2.6%	1.6%	—	0.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	1.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	15.2%	1.3%	9.0%	—	0.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	7.8%	1.5%	2.4%	—	0.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	9.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	5.5%	8.7%	5.3%	—	0.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	5.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	4.7%	2.5%	10.8%	—	0.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	3.4%	1.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	6.5%	0.4%	1.7%	—	0.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	3.9%	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	2.5%	0.5%	2.1%	—	0.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.5%	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	2.1%	0.2%	1.3%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.8%	0.2%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.9%	0.1%	0.7%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.2%	0.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.2%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.4%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.8%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.7%	0.0%	0.1%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.9%	0.0%	0.1%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.8%	0.0%	0.1%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.5%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	39%	87.5°F	7.0°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.1505
NWS forecast	10%	82.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-13 14:00	0.0098
National Blend	4%	80.0°F	5.3°F	2026-10-13 06:00	0.0014
IFS HRES	2%	76.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.0004
AIFS Single	1%	77.7°F	5.3°F	2026-10-13 06:00	0.0002
IFS Ensemble	<1%	82.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.0001
WeatherNext 2	<1%	77.4°F	4.6°F	2026-10-13 06:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KSAN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAN-20261019-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 13 · 15:41 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in San Diego · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗