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KSAN / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Diego, CAHigh ≥ 90°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 13 · 18:42 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
39%
HRES
2%
AIFS
1%
EPS
<1%
WN2
<1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 19.6¢Risks 19.60u
VS
WN2NO 80.4¢Risks 80.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +80.40u · WN2 −80.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 1.3% · 2026-10-13T15:41:57+00:00AIFS Single: 1.3% · 2026-10-13T16:27:06+00:00AIFS Single: 1.3% · 2026-10-13T17:12:14+00:00AIFS Single: 1.3% · 2026-10-13T17:57:20+00:00AIFS Single: 1.3% · 2026-10-13T18:42:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.8% · 2026-10-13T15:41:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.8% · 2026-10-13T16:27:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.8% · 2026-10-13T17:12:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.8% · 2026-10-13T17:57:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.8% · 2026-10-13T18:42:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.4% · 2026-10-13T15:41:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.4% · 2026-10-13T16:27:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.4% · 2026-10-13T17:12:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.4% · 2026-10-13T17:57:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.4% · 2026-10-13T18:42:25+00:00IFS HRES: 2.0% · 2026-10-13T15:41:57+00:00IFS HRES: 2.0% · 2026-10-13T16:27:06+00:00IFS HRES: 2.0% · 2026-10-13T17:12:14+00:00IFS HRES: 2.0% · 2026-10-13T17:57:20+00:00IFS HRES: 2.0% · 2026-10-13T18:42:25+00:00ICON: 38.8% · 2026-10-13T15:41:57+00:00ICON: 38.8% · 2026-10-13T16:27:06+00:00ICON: 38.8% · 2026-10-13T17:12:14+00:00ICON: 38.8% · 2026-10-13T17:57:20+00:00ICON: 38.8% · 2026-10-13T18:42:25+00:0010-13 15:4110-13 17:1210-13 18:42
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-13T18:42:25+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-13T15:41:57+00:001.3%0.8%0.4%2.0%38.8%
2026-10-13T16:27:06+00:001.3%0.8%0.4%2.0%38.8%
2026-10-13T17:12:14+00:001.3%0.8%0.4%2.0%38.8%
2026-10-13T17:57:20+00:001.3%0.8%0.4%2.0%38.8%
2026-10-13T18:42:25+00:001.3%0.8%0.4%2.0%38.8%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON39%87.5°F7.0°F2026-10-13 00:000.1505
NWS forecast10%82.0°F5.8°F2026-10-13 14:000.0098
National Blend4%80.0°F5.3°F2026-10-13 06:000.0014
IFS HRES2%76.0°F6.6°F2026-10-13 00:000.0004
AIFS Single1%77.7°F5.3°F2026-10-13 06:000.0002
IFS Ensemble<1%82.0°F3.1°F2026-10-13 00:000.0001
WeatherNext 2<1%77.4°F4.6°F2026-10-13 06:000.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KSAN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAN-20261019-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 13 · 15:41 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in San Diego · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗