KSAN / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Diego, CAHigh ≥ 70°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST72%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

82%

80%

79%

72%

53%

Consensus

72%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 67.2¢Risks 67.15u

EPSNO 32.9¢Risks 32.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +32.85u · EPS −32.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	60.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	84.8%	—	—	—	—	70.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	86.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	74.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	73.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	76.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	74.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	77.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	68.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	65.6%	—	—	—	—	61.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	57.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	45.6%	—	—	—	—	61.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	55.1%	—	—	—	—	61.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	59.7%	—	39.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	72.2%	—	44.7%	—	—	58.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	53.0%	—	66.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	62.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	85.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	48.1%	—	—	—	—	56.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	84.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	48.7%	—	34.2%	—	—	55.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	48.0%	—	60.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	52.7%	12.8%	39.3%	—	—	54.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	51.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	56.3%	72.5%	38.9%	22.4%	—	57.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	55.0%	—	52.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	53.6%	69.0%	56.6%	52.2%	—	56.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	51.5%	—	61.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	55.3%	62.0%	59.8%	—	57.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	58.5%	—	—	39.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	53.2%	61.8%	69.2%	67.7%	—	57.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	52.4%	—	65.9%	—	—	48.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	45.0%	76.8%	62.3%	74.2%	—	57.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	49.1%	43.2%	76.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	51.7%	60.4%	79.8%	58.7%	—	57.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	49.1%	66.6%	61.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	67.0%	63.6%	76.3%	—	57.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	51.9%	44.3%	75.4%	—	—	52.8%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	56.8%	59.6%	60.6%	63.4%	39.4%	54.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	56.0%	—	65.6%	—	—	54.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	82%	74.1°F	5.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	80%	74.4°F	5.8°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
ICON	79%	77.5°F	9.9°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	72%	73.2°F	6.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	70.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	53%	69.8°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 70°F · KSAN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAN-20261023-TMAX-GE70
Opened Oct 16 · 13:29 UTC

Original listing: San Diego high ≥ 70°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗