KSAN / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Diego, CAHigh ≥ 70°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST72%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

82%

80%

79%

72%

53%

Consensus

72%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 67.2¢Risks 67.15u

EPSNO 32.9¢Risks 32.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +32.85u · EPS −32.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T03:55:43+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T13:29:04+00:00	80.5%	48.1%	82.3%	67.4%	41.6%
2026-10-16T14:20:02+00:00	80.3%	48.1%	82.2%	67.4%	41.6%
2026-10-16T15:05:51+00:00	80.3%	52.7%	82.2%	67.4%	41.6%
2026-10-16T15:50:59+00:00	80.3%	52.7%	82.2%	67.4%	41.6%
2026-10-16T16:36:15+00:00	80.3%	52.7%	82.2%	67.4%	41.6%
2026-10-16T17:21:33+00:00	80.3%	52.7%	82.7%	67.4%	41.6%
2026-10-16T18:06:40+00:00	80.3%	52.7%	82.7%	67.4%	41.6%
2026-10-16T18:51:47+00:00	80.3%	52.7%	82.7%	67.4%	41.6%
2026-10-16T19:37:18+00:00	81.7%	52.7%	82.7%	67.4%	78.9%
2026-10-16T20:22:43+00:00	81.7%	52.7%	82.7%	67.4%	78.9%
2026-10-16T21:07:49+00:00	81.7%	52.7%	82.7%	67.4%	78.9%
2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00	81.7%	52.7%	82.7%	67.4%	78.9%
2026-10-16T22:38:11+00:00	81.7%	52.7%	82.7%	71.7%	78.9%
2026-10-16T23:23:40+00:00	81.7%	52.7%	81.6%	71.7%	78.9%
2026-10-17T00:09:45+00:00	81.7%	52.7%	81.6%	71.7%	78.9%
2026-10-17T00:55:01+00:00	81.7%	52.7%	81.6%	71.7%	78.9%
2026-10-17T01:40:14+00:00	80.3%	52.7%	81.6%	71.7%	78.9%
2026-10-17T02:25:24+00:00	80.3%	52.7%	81.6%	71.7%	78.9%
2026-10-17T03:10:32+00:00	80.3%	52.7%	81.6%	71.7%	78.9%
2026-10-17T03:55:43+00:00	80.3%	52.7%	81.6%	71.7%	78.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	82%	74.1°F	5.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	80%	74.4°F	5.8°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
ICON	79%	77.5°F	9.9°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	72%	73.2°F	6.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	70.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	53%	69.8°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 70°F · KSAN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAN-20261023-TMAX-GE70
Opened Oct 16 · 13:29 UTC

Original listing: San Diego high ≥ 70°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗