KSAN / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Diego, CAHigh ≤ 67°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST7%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

18%

18%

15%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 11.2¢Risks 5.62u

WN2NO 88.8¢Risks 44.38u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +44.38u · WN2 −44.38u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	17.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	18.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	17.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	32.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	43.4%	—	—	—	—	28.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	38.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	28.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	29.6%	—	49.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	43.6%	—	—	30.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	23.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	34.1%	—	—	—	—	27.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	37.3%	—	8.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	31.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	37.4%	—	9.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	38.4%	—	53.2%	—	—	31.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	38.9%	—	27.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	34.2%	78.7%	47.3%	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	35.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	30.5%	17.1%	47.2%	65.7%	—	29.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	31.4%	—	33.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	32.3%	19.4%	29.7%	33.7%	—	29.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	25.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	35.1%	30.3%	24.5%	26.4%	—	28.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	36.2%	—	27.2%	—	—	45.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	31.6%	24.2%	18.4%	19.5%	—	27.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	31.9%	—	20.7%	—	—	35.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	38.5%	12.5%	23.2%	14.3%	—	27.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	34.2%	39.8%	12.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	31.4%	24.1%	10.1%	25.5%	—	26.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	33.4%	19.0%	22.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	32.2%	18.4%	20.9%	11.9%	—	25.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	30.1%	37.0%	12.2%	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	25.5%	23.2%	22.5%	20.3%	41.3%	27.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	18.3%	—	—	27.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	18%	71.5°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	18%	71.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
ICON	18%	71.2°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	15%	70.9°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	6%	71.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	6%	74.3°F	4.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	4%	73.4°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 67°F · KSAN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAN-20261023-TMAX-LE67
Opened Oct 19 · 07:33 UTC

Original listing: San Diego stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 67°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗