KSAN / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Diego, CAHigh ≤ 67°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST7%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

18%

18%

15%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 11.2¢Risks 5.62u

WN2NO 88.8¢Risks 44.38u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +44.38u · WN2 −44.38u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T14:46:26+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T07:33:57+00:00	8.5%	12.6%	6.3%	17.9%	15.8%
2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:00	8.5%	12.6%	6.3%	17.9%	15.8%
2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00	8.5%	12.6%	6.3%	17.9%	15.8%
2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00	8.5%	12.6%	6.3%	17.9%	15.8%
2026-10-19T10:35:28+00:00	8.5%	12.6%	6.3%	17.9%	15.8%
2026-10-19T11:21:22+00:00	8.5%	12.8%	5.1%	17.9%	15.8%
2026-10-19T12:06:41+00:00	8.5%	12.8%	5.1%	17.9%	15.8%
2026-10-19T12:51:53+00:00	8.5%	12.8%	5.1%	17.9%	15.8%
2026-10-19T13:37:08+00:00	9.2%	12.8%	5.1%	17.9%	15.8%
2026-10-19T14:28:06+00:00	9.1%	12.5%	5.1%	17.9%	15.7%
2026-10-19T15:13:59+00:00	9.1%	12.8%	5.1%	17.9%	15.7%
2026-10-19T15:59:10+00:00	9.1%	12.8%	5.1%	17.9%	15.7%
2026-10-19T16:44:24+00:00	9.1%	12.8%	5.1%	17.9%	15.7%
2026-10-19T17:29:35+00:00	9.1%	12.8%	5.3%	17.9%	15.7%
2026-10-19T18:14:42+00:00	9.1%	12.8%	5.3%	17.9%	15.7%
2026-10-19T19:00:23+00:00	9.1%	12.8%	5.3%	17.9%	15.7%
2026-10-19T19:45:33+00:00	9.1%	12.8%	5.3%	17.4%	12.5%
2026-10-19T20:30:42+00:00	9.1%	12.8%	5.3%	17.4%	12.5%
2026-10-19T21:15:56+00:00	9.1%	12.8%	5.3%	17.4%	12.5%
2026-10-19T22:01:05+00:00	9.1%	12.8%	5.3%	17.4%	12.5%
2026-10-19T22:46:17+00:00	9.1%	12.8%	5.3%	17.4%	12.5%
2026-10-19T23:31:31+00:00	9.1%	12.8%	5.9%	17.4%	12.5%
2026-10-20T00:17:11+00:00	9.1%	12.8%	5.9%	17.4%	12.5%
2026-10-20T01:02:40+00:00	9.1%	12.8%	5.9%	17.4%	12.5%
2026-10-20T01:47:51+00:00	8.4%	12.8%	5.9%	17.4%	12.5%
2026-10-20T02:33:00+00:00	8.4%	12.8%	5.9%	17.4%	12.5%
2026-10-20T03:18:08+00:00	8.4%	12.8%	5.9%	17.4%	12.5%
2026-10-20T04:05:50+00:00	8.4%	12.8%	5.9%	17.4%	12.5%
2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00	8.4%	12.8%	5.9%	17.4%	12.5%
2026-10-20T05:36:36+00:00	8.4%	12.8%	7.3%	17.4%	12.5%
2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00	8.4%	12.8%	7.3%	17.4%	12.5%
2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00	8.4%	12.8%	7.3%	17.4%	12.5%
2026-10-20T07:52:02+00:00	5.5%	12.8%	7.3%	17.4%	17.7%
2026-10-20T08:37:11+00:00	5.5%	12.8%	7.3%	17.4%	17.7%
2026-10-20T09:22:43+00:00	5.5%	12.8%	7.3%	17.4%	17.7%
2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00	5.5%	12.8%	7.3%	17.4%	17.7%
2026-10-20T10:54:26+00:00	5.5%	15.1%	4.0%	18.5%	17.7%
2026-10-20T11:39:49+00:00	5.5%	15.1%	4.0%	18.5%	17.7%
2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00	5.5%	15.1%	4.0%	18.5%	17.7%
2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00	5.5%	15.1%	4.0%	18.5%	17.7%
2026-10-20T13:55:25+00:00	5.5%	15.1%	4.0%	18.5%	17.6%
2026-10-20T14:46:26+00:00	5.5%	15.1%	4.0%	18.5%	17.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	18%	71.5°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	18%	71.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
ICON	18%	71.2°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	15%	70.9°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	6%	71.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	6%	74.3°F	4.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	4%	73.4°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 67°F · KSAN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAN-20261023-TMAX-LE67
Opened Oct 19 · 07:33 UTC

Original listing: San Diego stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 67°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗