KSAN / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Diego, CAHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST34%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

67%

36%

26%

24%

23%

Consensus

34%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 45.1¢Risks 45.05u

EPSNO 54.9¢Risks 54.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +54.95u · EPS −54.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	17.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	18.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	35.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	19.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	7.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	18.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	10.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	6.5%	—	—	—	—	13.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	12.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	13.3%	—	21.4%	—	—	15.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	6.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	9.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	7.0%	—	21.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	26.8%	—	—	10.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	5.7%	—	66.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	9.6%	0.5%	85.3%	—	—	9.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	12.7%	—	73.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	10.2%	20.4%	53.5%	6.3%	—	10.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	8.0%	—	85.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	10.3%	70.3%	87.2%	55.1%	—	12.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	10.1%	—	83.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	8.1%	46.9%	83.1%	56.8%	—	12.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	85.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	10.8%	68.4%	56.4%	71.9%	20.1%	13.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	8.2%	—	68.1%	—	—	10.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	67%	82.7°F	7.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	80.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	78.0°F	6.7°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	36%	77.1°F	6.6°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	26%	76.0°F	5.4°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	24%	76.2°F	4.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	23%	75.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KSAN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAN-20261025-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 19 · 15:14 UTC

Original listing: San Diego high ≥ 80°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗