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KSAN / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Diego, CAHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST34%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
67%
HRES
36%
AIFS
26%
WN2
24%
EPS
23%
Consensus
34%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 45.1¢Risks 45.05u
VS
EPSNO 54.9¢Risks 54.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +54.95u · EPS −54.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 30.9% · 2026-10-19T15:14:00+00:00AIFS Single: 30.9% · 2026-10-19T15:59:10+00:00AIFS Single: 30.9% · 2026-10-19T16:44:24+00:00AIFS Single: 30.9% · 2026-10-19T17:29:35+00:00AIFS Single: 30.9% · 2026-10-19T18:14:42+00:00AIFS Single: 30.9% · 2026-10-19T19:00:23+00:00AIFS Single: 27.7% · 2026-10-19T19:45:33+00:00AIFS Single: 27.7% · 2026-10-19T20:30:42+00:00AIFS Single: 27.7% · 2026-10-19T21:15:56+00:00AIFS Single: 27.7% · 2026-10-19T22:01:05+00:00AIFS Single: 27.7% · 2026-10-19T22:46:17+00:00AIFS Single: 27.7% · 2026-10-19T23:31:31+00:00AIFS Single: 27.7% · 2026-10-20T00:17:11+00:00AIFS Single: 27.7% · 2026-10-20T01:02:40+00:00AIFS Single: 25.8% · 2026-10-20T01:47:51+00:00AIFS Single: 25.8% · 2026-10-20T02:33:00+00:00AIFS Single: 25.8% · 2026-10-20T03:18:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 22.8% · 2026-10-19T15:14:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 22.8% · 2026-10-19T15:59:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 22.8% · 2026-10-19T16:44:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 22.8% · 2026-10-19T17:29:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 22.8% · 2026-10-19T18:14:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 22.8% · 2026-10-19T19:00:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 22.8% · 2026-10-19T19:45:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 22.8% · 2026-10-19T20:30:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 22.8% · 2026-10-19T21:15:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 22.8% · 2026-10-19T22:01:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 22.8% · 2026-10-19T22:46:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 22.8% · 2026-10-19T23:31:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 22.8% · 2026-10-20T00:17:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 22.8% · 2026-10-20T01:02:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 22.8% · 2026-10-20T01:47:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 22.8% · 2026-10-20T02:33:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 22.8% · 2026-10-20T03:18:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 26.0% · 2026-10-19T15:14:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 26.0% · 2026-10-19T15:59:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 26.0% · 2026-10-19T16:44:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 25.3% · 2026-10-19T17:29:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 25.3% · 2026-10-19T18:14:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 25.3% · 2026-10-19T19:00:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 25.3% · 2026-10-19T19:45:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 25.3% · 2026-10-19T20:30:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 25.3% · 2026-10-19T21:15:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 25.3% · 2026-10-19T22:01:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 25.3% · 2026-10-19T22:46:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 24.0% · 2026-10-19T23:31:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 24.0% · 2026-10-20T00:17:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 24.0% · 2026-10-20T01:02:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 24.0% · 2026-10-20T01:47:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 24.0% · 2026-10-20T02:33:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 24.0% · 2026-10-20T03:18:08+00:00IFS HRES: 33.0% · 2026-10-19T15:14:00+00:00IFS HRES: 33.0% · 2026-10-19T15:59:10+00:00IFS HRES: 33.0% · 2026-10-19T16:44:24+00:00IFS HRES: 33.0% · 2026-10-19T17:29:35+00:00IFS HRES: 33.0% · 2026-10-19T18:14:42+00:00IFS HRES: 33.0% · 2026-10-19T19:00:23+00:00IFS HRES: 35.8% · 2026-10-19T19:45:33+00:00IFS HRES: 35.8% · 2026-10-19T20:30:42+00:00IFS HRES: 35.8% · 2026-10-19T21:15:56+00:00IFS HRES: 35.8% · 2026-10-19T22:01:05+00:00IFS HRES: 35.8% · 2026-10-19T22:46:17+00:00IFS HRES: 35.8% · 2026-10-19T23:31:31+00:00IFS HRES: 35.8% · 2026-10-20T00:17:11+00:00IFS HRES: 35.8% · 2026-10-20T01:02:40+00:00IFS HRES: 35.8% · 2026-10-20T01:47:51+00:00IFS HRES: 35.8% · 2026-10-20T02:33:00+00:00IFS HRES: 35.8% · 2026-10-20T03:18:08+00:00ICON: 81.9% · 2026-10-19T15:14:00+00:00ICON: 81.9% · 2026-10-19T15:59:10+00:00ICON: 81.9% · 2026-10-19T16:44:24+00:00ICON: 81.9% · 2026-10-19T17:29:35+00:00ICON: 81.9% · 2026-10-19T18:14:42+00:00ICON: 81.9% · 2026-10-19T19:00:23+00:00ICON: 67.3% · 2026-10-19T19:45:33+00:00ICON: 67.3% · 2026-10-19T20:30:42+00:00ICON: 67.3% · 2026-10-19T21:15:56+00:00ICON: 67.3% · 2026-10-19T22:01:05+00:00ICON: 67.3% · 2026-10-19T22:46:17+00:00ICON: 67.3% · 2026-10-19T23:31:31+00:00ICON: 67.3% · 2026-10-20T00:17:11+00:00ICON: 67.3% · 2026-10-20T01:02:40+00:00ICON: 67.3% · 2026-10-20T01:47:51+00:00ICON: 67.3% · 2026-10-20T02:33:00+00:00ICON: 67.3% · 2026-10-20T03:18:08+00:0010-19 15:1410-19 21:1510-20 03:18
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T03:18:08+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T15:14:00+00:0030.9%22.8%26.0%33.0%81.9%
2026-10-19T15:59:10+00:0030.9%22.8%26.0%33.0%81.9%
2026-10-19T16:44:24+00:0030.9%22.8%26.0%33.0%81.9%
2026-10-19T17:29:35+00:0030.9%22.8%25.3%33.0%81.9%
2026-10-19T18:14:42+00:0030.9%22.8%25.3%33.0%81.9%
2026-10-19T19:00:23+00:0030.9%22.8%25.3%33.0%81.9%
2026-10-19T19:45:33+00:0027.7%22.8%25.3%35.8%67.3%
2026-10-19T20:30:42+00:0027.7%22.8%25.3%35.8%67.3%
2026-10-19T21:15:56+00:0027.7%22.8%25.3%35.8%67.3%
2026-10-19T22:01:05+00:0027.7%22.8%25.3%35.8%67.3%
2026-10-19T22:46:17+00:0027.7%22.8%25.3%35.8%67.3%
2026-10-19T23:31:31+00:0027.7%22.8%24.0%35.8%67.3%
2026-10-20T00:17:11+00:0027.7%22.8%24.0%35.8%67.3%
2026-10-20T01:02:40+00:0027.7%22.8%24.0%35.8%67.3%
2026-10-20T01:47:51+00:0025.8%22.8%24.0%35.8%67.3%
2026-10-20T02:33:00+00:0025.8%22.8%24.0%35.8%67.3%
2026-10-20T03:18:08+00:0025.8%22.8%24.0%35.8%67.3%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON67%82.7°F7.1°F2026-10-19 12:00Pending
NWS forecast53%80.0°F5.9°F2026-10-19 14:00Pending
National Blend41%78.0°F6.7°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
IFS HRES36%77.1°F6.6°F2026-10-19 12:00Pending
AIFS Single26%76.0°F5.4°F2026-10-19 18:00Pending
WeatherNext 224%76.2°F4.7°F2026-10-19 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble23%75.8°F5.0°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KSAN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAN-20261025-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 19 · 15:14 UTC

Original listing: San Diego high ≥ 80°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗