KSAT / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Antonio, TXHigh ≥ 82°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 15 · 03:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

35%

30%

23%

16%

Consensus

24%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 20.0¢Risks 20.05u

WN2NO 80.0¢Risks 79.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +79.95u · WN2 −79.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	2.4%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	21.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	30.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	4.1%	—	—	—	—	51.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	8.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	46.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	7.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	0.0%	—	—	48.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	27.8%	—	2.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	33.8%	—	10.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	16.4%	—	—	36.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	27.5%	—	46.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	13.2%	0.1%	58.7%	—	—	57.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	23.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	90.4%	60.4%	0.6%	—	40.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	41.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	69.6%	22.1%	51.5%	—	46.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	59.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	77.8%	49.2%	22.8%	—	38.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	0.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	23.0%	15.9%	8.7%	—	17.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	36.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	11.6%	27.9%	3.8%	—	9.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	3.1%	3.9%	19.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	13.6%	28.4%	5.0%	—	10.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	4.5%	15.5%	44.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	4.1%	16.6%	37.3%	3.6%	—	8.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	4.0%	11.3%	37.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	3.5%	15.3%	23.2%	4.2%	—	5.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	4.2%	13.0%	15.2%	—	—	5.1%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	4.9%	17.0%	18.3%	5.5%	—	6.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	4.0%	8.0%	8.0%	—	—	3.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	3.1%	14.9%	1.7%	9.0%	0.0%	4.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	9.2%	4.8%	0.0%	—	2.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	2.1%	8.1%	7.6%	0.1%	1.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	6.2%	0.0%	5.1%	—	1.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	1.4%	0.6%	8.0%	—	2.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	6.4%	0.8%	3.5%	—	2.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	11.3%	6.1%	8.9%	0.3%	1.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	17.3%	3.2%	9.8%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	13.8%	6.3%	5.9%	1.3%	2.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	12.8%	12.8%	5.6%	—	1.4%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	11.7%	1.0%	5.2%	2.2%	0.6%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	16.0%	12.3%	8.6%	—	2.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	82.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-14 14:00	0.2894
National Blend	46%	81.0°F	5.4°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.2144
IFS Ensemble	35%	80.3°F	3.1°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.1218
ICON	30%	78.4°F	5.9°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0906
IFS HRES	23%	77.3°F	5.8°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0543
AIFS Single	16%	76.5°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 18:00	0.0246
WeatherNext 2	5%	74.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0027

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KSAT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAT-20261019-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 12 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: San Antonio high ≥ 82°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗