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KSAT / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Antonio, TXHigh ≥ 82°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 15 · 03:16 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
35%
ICON
30%
HRES
23%
AIFS
16%
WN2
5%
Consensus
24%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 20.0¢Risks 20.05u
VS
WN2NO 80.0¢Risks 79.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +79.95u · WN2 −79.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 33.4% · 2026-10-12T07:48:51+00:00AIFS Single: 33.4% · 2026-10-12T08:34:32+00:00AIFS Single: 33.4% · 2026-10-12T09:19:39+00:00AIFS Single: 33.4% · 2026-10-12T10:05:00+00:00AIFS Single: 33.4% · 2026-10-12T10:50:13+00:00AIFS Single: 33.4% · 2026-10-12T11:35:39+00:00AIFS Single: 33.4% · 2026-10-12T12:20:51+00:00AIFS Single: 33.4% · 2026-10-12T13:05:58+00:00AIFS Single: 13.0% · 2026-10-12T13:51:09+00:00AIFS Single: 13.1% · 2026-10-12T14:41:19+00:00AIFS Single: 13.1% · 2026-10-12T15:27:39+00:00AIFS Single: 13.1% · 2026-10-12T16:12:57+00:00AIFS Single: 13.1% · 2026-10-12T16:58:06+00:00AIFS Single: 13.1% · 2026-10-12T17:43:15+00:00AIFS Single: 13.1% · 2026-10-12T18:28:21+00:00AIFS Single: 13.1% · 2026-10-12T19:13:28+00:00AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-10-12T19:58:35+00:00AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-10-12T20:43:45+00:00AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-10-12T21:28:51+00:00AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-10-12T22:13:58+00:00AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-10-12T22:59:13+00:00AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-10-12T23:44:20+00:00AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-10-13T00:29:26+00:00AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-10-13T01:14:41+00:00AIFS Single: 6.8% · 2026-10-13T01:59:49+00:00AIFS Single: 6.8% · 2026-10-13T02:44:57+00:00AIFS Single: 6.8% · 2026-10-13T03:30:04+00:00AIFS Single: 13.0% · 2026-10-14T15:12:40+00:00AIFS Single: 13.0% · 2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00AIFS Single: 13.0% · 2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00AIFS Single: 13.0% · 2026-10-14T17:28:13+00:00AIFS Single: 13.0% · 2026-10-14T18:13:21+00:00AIFS Single: 13.0% · 2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00AIFS Single: 8.3% · 2026-10-14T19:43:38+00:00AIFS Single: 8.3% · 2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:00AIFS Single: 8.3% · 2026-10-14T21:13:57+00:00AIFS Single: 8.3% · 2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00AIFS Single: 8.3% · 2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:00AIFS Single: 8.3% · 2026-10-14T23:29:34+00:00AIFS Single: 8.3% · 2026-10-15T00:15:26+00:00AIFS Single: 8.3% · 2026-10-15T01:01:12+00:00AIFS Single: 15.7% · 2026-10-15T01:46:20+00:00AIFS Single: 15.7% · 2026-10-15T02:31:31+00:00AIFS Single: 15.7% · 2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 53.0% · 2026-10-12T07:48:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 53.0% · 2026-10-12T08:34:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 53.0% · 2026-10-12T09:19:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 53.0% · 2026-10-12T10:05:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 53.0% · 2026-10-12T10:50:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 53.0% · 2026-10-12T11:35:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.1% · 2026-10-12T12:20:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.1% · 2026-10-12T13:05:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.1% · 2026-10-12T13:51:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.1% · 2026-10-12T14:41:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.1% · 2026-10-12T15:27:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 64.8% · 2026-10-12T16:12:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 64.8% · 2026-10-12T16:58:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 64.8% · 2026-10-12T17:43:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 64.8% · 2026-10-12T18:28:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 64.8% · 2026-10-12T19:13:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 64.8% · 2026-10-12T19:58:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 64.8% · 2026-10-12T20:43:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 64.8% · 2026-10-12T21:28:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 64.8% · 2026-10-12T22:13:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 64.8% · 2026-10-12T22:59:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 64.8% · 2026-10-12T23:44:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 64.8% · 2026-10-13T00:29:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 64.8% · 2026-10-13T01:14:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 64.8% · 2026-10-13T01:59:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 64.8% · 2026-10-13T02:44:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 64.8% · 2026-10-13T03:30:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 34.9% · 2026-10-14T15:12:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 34.9% · 2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 34.9% · 2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 34.9% · 2026-10-14T17:28:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 34.9% · 2026-10-14T18:13:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 34.9% · 2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 34.9% · 2026-10-14T19:43:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 34.9% · 2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 34.9% · 2026-10-14T21:13:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 34.9% · 2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 34.9% · 2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 34.9% · 2026-10-14T23:29:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 34.9% · 2026-10-15T00:15:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 34.9% · 2026-10-15T01:01:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 34.9% · 2026-10-15T01:46:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 34.9% · 2026-10-15T02:31:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 34.9% · 2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 31.9% · 2026-10-12T07:48:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 31.9% · 2026-10-12T08:34:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 31.9% · 2026-10-12T09:19:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 31.9% · 2026-10-12T10:05:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 31.9% · 2026-10-12T10:50:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 25.9% · 2026-10-12T11:35:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 25.9% · 2026-10-12T12:20:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 25.9% · 2026-10-12T13:05:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 25.9% · 2026-10-12T13:51:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 26.0% · 2026-10-12T14:41:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 26.0% · 2026-10-12T15:27:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 26.0% · 2026-10-12T16:12:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.7% · 2026-10-12T16:58:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.7% · 2026-10-12T17:43:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.7% · 2026-10-12T18:28:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.7% · 2026-10-12T19:13:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.7% · 2026-10-12T19:58:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.7% · 2026-10-12T20:43:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.7% · 2026-10-12T21:28:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.7% · 2026-10-12T22:13:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 4.7% · 2026-10-12T22:59:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 4.7% · 2026-10-12T23:44:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 4.7% · 2026-10-13T00:29:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 4.7% · 2026-10-13T01:14:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 4.7% · 2026-10-13T01:59:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 4.7% · 2026-10-13T02:44:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 4.7% · 2026-10-13T03:30:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.0% · 2026-10-14T15:12:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.0% · 2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.0% · 2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.0% · 2026-10-14T17:28:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.0% · 2026-10-14T18:13:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.0% · 2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.0% · 2026-10-14T19:43:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.0% · 2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.0% · 2026-10-14T21:13:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.0% · 2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.0% · 2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.2% · 2026-10-14T23:29:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.2% · 2026-10-15T00:15:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.2% · 2026-10-15T01:01:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.2% · 2026-10-15T01:46:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.2% · 2026-10-15T02:31:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.2% · 2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:00IFS HRES: 90.7% · 2026-10-12T07:48:51+00:00IFS HRES: 90.7% · 2026-10-12T08:34:32+00:00IFS HRES: 90.7% · 2026-10-12T09:19:39+00:00IFS HRES: 90.7% · 2026-10-12T10:05:00+00:00IFS HRES: 90.7% · 2026-10-12T10:50:13+00:00IFS HRES: 90.7% · 2026-10-12T11:35:39+00:00IFS HRES: 90.7% · 2026-10-12T12:20:51+00:00IFS HRES: 90.7% · 2026-10-12T13:05:58+00:00IFS HRES: 90.7% · 2026-10-12T13:51:09+00:00IFS HRES: 90.7% · 2026-10-12T14:41:19+00:00IFS HRES: 90.7% · 2026-10-12T15:27:39+00:00IFS HRES: 90.7% · 2026-10-12T16:12:57+00:00IFS HRES: 90.7% · 2026-10-12T16:58:06+00:00IFS HRES: 90.7% · 2026-10-12T17:43:15+00:00IFS HRES: 90.7% · 2026-10-12T18:28:21+00:00IFS HRES: 90.7% · 2026-10-12T19:13:28+00:00IFS HRES: 22.9% · 2026-10-12T19:58:35+00:00IFS HRES: 22.9% · 2026-10-12T20:43:45+00:00IFS HRES: 22.9% · 2026-10-12T21:28:51+00:00IFS HRES: 22.9% · 2026-10-12T22:13:58+00:00IFS HRES: 22.9% · 2026-10-12T22:59:13+00:00IFS HRES: 22.9% · 2026-10-12T23:44:20+00:00IFS HRES: 22.9% · 2026-10-13T00:29:26+00:00IFS HRES: 22.9% · 2026-10-13T01:14:41+00:00IFS HRES: 22.9% · 2026-10-13T01:59:49+00:00IFS HRES: 22.9% · 2026-10-13T02:44:57+00:00IFS HRES: 22.9% · 2026-10-13T03:30:04+00:00IFS HRES: 26.6% · 2026-10-14T15:12:40+00:00IFS HRES: 26.6% · 2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00IFS HRES: 26.6% · 2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00IFS HRES: 26.6% · 2026-10-14T17:28:13+00:00IFS HRES: 26.6% · 2026-10-14T18:13:21+00:00IFS HRES: 26.6% · 2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00IFS HRES: 23.3% · 2026-10-14T19:43:38+00:00IFS HRES: 23.3% · 2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:00IFS HRES: 23.3% · 2026-10-14T21:13:57+00:00IFS HRES: 23.3% · 2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00IFS HRES: 23.3% · 2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:00IFS HRES: 23.3% · 2026-10-14T23:29:34+00:00IFS HRES: 23.3% · 2026-10-15T00:15:26+00:00IFS HRES: 23.3% · 2026-10-15T01:01:12+00:00IFS HRES: 23.3% · 2026-10-15T01:46:20+00:00IFS HRES: 23.3% · 2026-10-15T02:31:31+00:00IFS HRES: 23.3% · 2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:00ICON: 7.9% · 2026-10-12T07:48:51+00:00ICON: 7.9% · 2026-10-12T08:34:32+00:00ICON: 7.9% · 2026-10-12T09:19:39+00:00ICON: 7.9% · 2026-10-12T10:05:00+00:00ICON: 7.9% · 2026-10-12T10:50:13+00:00ICON: 7.9% · 2026-10-12T11:35:39+00:00ICON: 7.9% · 2026-10-12T12:20:51+00:00ICON: 7.9% · 2026-10-12T13:05:58+00:00ICON: 7.9% · 2026-10-12T13:51:09+00:00ICON: 8.0% · 2026-10-12T14:41:19+00:00ICON: 8.0% · 2026-10-12T15:27:39+00:00ICON: 8.0% · 2026-10-12T16:12:57+00:00ICON: 8.0% · 2026-10-12T16:58:06+00:00ICON: 8.0% · 2026-10-12T17:43:15+00:00ICON: 8.0% · 2026-10-12T18:28:21+00:00ICON: 8.0% · 2026-10-12T19:13:28+00:00ICON: 88.5% · 2026-10-12T19:58:35+00:00ICON: 88.5% · 2026-10-12T20:43:45+00:00ICON: 88.5% · 2026-10-12T21:28:51+00:00ICON: 88.5% · 2026-10-12T22:13:58+00:00ICON: 88.5% · 2026-10-12T22:59:13+00:00ICON: 88.5% · 2026-10-12T23:44:20+00:00ICON: 88.5% · 2026-10-13T00:29:26+00:00ICON: 88.5% · 2026-10-13T01:14:41+00:00ICON: 88.5% · 2026-10-13T01:59:49+00:00ICON: 88.5% · 2026-10-13T02:44:57+00:00ICON: 88.5% · 2026-10-13T03:30:04+00:00ICON: 42.7% · 2026-10-14T15:12:40+00:00ICON: 42.7% · 2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00ICON: 42.7% · 2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00ICON: 42.7% · 2026-10-14T17:28:13+00:00ICON: 42.7% · 2026-10-14T18:13:21+00:00ICON: 42.7% · 2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00ICON: 30.1% · 2026-10-14T19:43:38+00:00ICON: 30.1% · 2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:00ICON: 30.1% · 2026-10-14T21:13:57+00:00ICON: 30.1% · 2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00ICON: 30.1% · 2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:00ICON: 30.1% · 2026-10-14T23:29:34+00:00ICON: 30.1% · 2026-10-15T00:15:26+00:00ICON: 30.1% · 2026-10-15T01:01:12+00:00ICON: 30.1% · 2026-10-15T01:46:20+00:00ICON: 30.1% · 2026-10-15T02:31:31+00:00ICON: 30.1% · 2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:0010-12 07:4810-13 00:2910-15 03:16
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-12T07:48:51+00:0033.4%53.0%31.9%90.7%7.9%
2026-10-12T08:34:32+00:0033.4%53.0%31.9%90.7%7.9%
2026-10-12T09:19:39+00:0033.4%53.0%31.9%90.7%7.9%
2026-10-12T10:05:00+00:0033.4%53.0%31.9%90.7%7.9%
2026-10-12T10:50:13+00:0033.4%53.0%31.9%90.7%7.9%
2026-10-12T11:35:39+00:0033.4%53.0%25.9%90.7%7.9%
2026-10-12T12:20:51+00:0033.4%65.1%25.9%90.7%7.9%
2026-10-12T13:05:58+00:0033.4%65.1%25.9%90.7%7.9%
2026-10-12T13:51:09+00:0013.0%65.1%25.9%90.7%7.9%
2026-10-12T14:41:19+00:0013.1%65.1%26.0%90.7%8.0%
2026-10-12T15:27:39+00:0013.1%65.1%26.0%90.7%8.0%
2026-10-12T16:12:57+00:0013.1%64.8%26.0%90.7%8.0%
2026-10-12T16:58:06+00:0013.1%64.8%16.7%90.7%8.0%
2026-10-12T17:43:15+00:0013.1%64.8%16.7%90.7%8.0%
2026-10-12T18:28:21+00:0013.1%64.8%16.7%90.7%8.0%
2026-10-12T19:13:28+00:0013.1%64.8%16.7%90.7%8.0%
2026-10-12T19:58:35+00:000.8%64.8%16.7%22.9%88.5%
2026-10-12T20:43:45+00:000.8%64.8%16.7%22.9%88.5%
2026-10-12T21:28:51+00:000.8%64.8%16.7%22.9%88.5%
2026-10-12T22:13:58+00:000.8%64.8%16.7%22.9%88.5%
2026-10-12T22:59:13+00:000.8%64.8%4.7%22.9%88.5%
2026-10-12T23:44:20+00:000.8%64.8%4.7%22.9%88.5%
2026-10-13T00:29:26+00:000.8%64.8%4.7%22.9%88.5%
2026-10-13T01:14:41+00:000.8%64.8%4.7%22.9%88.5%
2026-10-13T01:59:49+00:006.8%64.8%4.7%22.9%88.5%
2026-10-13T02:44:57+00:006.8%64.8%4.7%22.9%88.5%
2026-10-13T03:30:04+00:006.8%64.8%4.7%22.9%88.5%
2026-10-14T15:12:40+00:0013.0%34.9%6.0%26.6%42.7%
2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:0013.0%34.9%6.0%26.6%42.7%
2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:0013.0%34.9%6.0%26.6%42.7%
2026-10-14T17:28:13+00:0013.0%34.9%6.0%26.6%42.7%
2026-10-14T18:13:21+00:0013.0%34.9%6.0%26.6%42.7%
2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:0013.0%34.9%6.0%26.6%42.7%
2026-10-14T19:43:38+00:008.3%34.9%6.0%23.3%30.1%
2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:008.3%34.9%6.0%23.3%30.1%
2026-10-14T21:13:57+00:008.3%34.9%6.0%23.3%30.1%
2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:008.3%34.9%6.0%23.3%30.1%
2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:008.3%34.9%6.0%23.3%30.1%
2026-10-14T23:29:34+00:008.3%34.9%5.2%23.3%30.1%
2026-10-15T00:15:26+00:008.3%34.9%5.2%23.3%30.1%
2026-10-15T01:01:12+00:008.3%34.9%5.2%23.3%30.1%
2026-10-15T01:46:20+00:0015.7%34.9%5.2%23.3%30.1%
2026-10-15T02:31:31+00:0015.7%34.9%5.2%23.3%30.1%
2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:0015.7%34.9%5.2%23.3%30.1%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
NWS forecast54%82.0°F5.2°F2026-10-14 14:000.2894
National Blend46%81.0°F5.4°F2026-10-14 06:000.2144
IFS Ensemble35%80.3°F3.1°F2026-10-14 00:000.1218
ICON30%78.4°F5.9°F2026-10-14 12:000.0906
IFS HRES23%77.3°F5.8°F2026-10-14 12:000.0543
AIFS Single16%76.5°F5.0°F2026-10-14 18:000.0246
WeatherNext 25%74.8°F4.1°F2026-10-14 12:000.0027

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KSAT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAT-20261019-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 12 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: San Antonio high ≥ 82°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗