KSAT / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Antonio, TXHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST61%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

68%

63%

63%

61%

49%

Consensus

61%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 58.1¢Risks 29.07u

WN2NO 41.9¢Risks 20.93u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +20.93u · WN2 −20.93u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	0.7%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	44.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	46.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	39.1%	—	—	—	—	56.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	30.2%	—	6.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	46.0%	—	—	—	—	51.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	60.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	67.6%	—	0.8%	—	—	57.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	42.3%	—	45.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	47.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	42.5%	—	—	—	—	45.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	39.9%	—	62.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	48.0%	—	27.3%	—	—	48.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	70.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	26.0%	5.4%	56.1%	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	54.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	26.3%	32.3%	36.2%	0.7%	—	42.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	38.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	26.6%	41.3%	57.3%	36.4%	—	47.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	25.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	22.8%	16.0%	62.7%	15.5%	—	50.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	—	57.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	28.1%	30.9%	50.0%	48.4%	—	43.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	41.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	29.3%	52.5%	47.5%	51.7%	—	43.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	31.9%	23.3%	50.9%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	33.8%	53.5%	44.8%	42.2%	—	46.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	32.6%	56.3%	14.5%	—	—	45.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	28.2%	57.3%	42.7%	37.3%	—	43.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	26.1%	66.5%	12.7%	—	—	40.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	26.3%	54.9%	48.0%	43.2%	—	51.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	25.7%	58.0%	49.0%	—	—	42.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	25.9%	60.2%	9.8%	42.8%	—	42.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	26.2%	71.2%	16.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	32.1%	70.8%	42.4%	45.6%	—	52.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	24.9%	71.4%	64.3%	0.0%	—	40.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	25.1%	72.0%	6.1%	48.8%	0.0%	43.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	24.4%	75.6%	18.3%	48.8%	—	45.2%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	25.6%	77.3%	62.3%	51.2%	15.9%	51.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	9.2%	53.9%	—	38.5%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	39.4%	—	0.0%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	68%	85.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	63%	84.7°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	63%	84.8°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	61%	84.3°F	2.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	84.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	84.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	49%	83.4°F	2.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KSAT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAT-20261021-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 20 · 04:05 UTC

Original listing: San Antonio high ≥ 84°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗