WEATHER PROPSBOARDMATCHUPSMODELSSTATIONSREPLAYTHE LEAGUE
← All matchups
KSAT / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Antonio, TXHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST61%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
68%
ICON
63%
AIFS
63%
EPS
61%
WN2
49%
Consensus
61%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 58.1¢Risks 29.07u
VS
WN2NO 41.9¢Risks 20.93u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +20.93u · WN2 −20.93u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 61.7% · 2026-10-20T04:05:18+00:00AIFS Single: 61.7% · 2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:00AIFS Single: 61.7% · 2026-10-20T05:36:34+00:00AIFS Single: 61.7% · 2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00AIFS Single: 61.7% · 2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00AIFS Single: 63.0% · 2026-10-20T07:52:00+00:00AIFS Single: 63.0% · 2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00AIFS Single: 63.0% · 2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00AIFS Single: 63.0% · 2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00AIFS Single: 63.0% · 2026-10-20T10:54:04+00:00AIFS Single: 63.0% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00AIFS Single: 63.0% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00AIFS Single: 63.0% · 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00AIFS Single: 63.0% · 2026-10-20T13:55:24+00:00AIFS Single: 63.0% · 2026-10-20T14:46:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.6% · 2026-10-20T04:05:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.6% · 2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.6% · 2026-10-20T05:36:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.6% · 2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.6% · 2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.6% · 2026-10-20T07:52:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.6% · 2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.6% · 2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.6% · 2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 60.9% · 2026-10-20T10:54:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 60.9% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 60.9% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 60.9% · 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 61.1% · 2026-10-20T13:55:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 61.1% · 2026-10-20T14:46:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 38.6% · 2026-10-20T04:05:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 38.6% · 2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 55.1% · 2026-10-20T05:36:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 55.1% · 2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 55.1% · 2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 55.1% · 2026-10-20T07:52:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 55.1% · 2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 55.1% · 2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 55.1% · 2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 48.6% · 2026-10-20T10:54:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 48.6% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 48.6% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 48.6% · 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 48.6% · 2026-10-20T13:55:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 48.6% · 2026-10-20T14:46:25+00:00IFS HRES: 59.6% · 2026-10-20T04:05:18+00:00IFS HRES: 59.6% · 2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:00IFS HRES: 59.6% · 2026-10-20T05:36:34+00:00IFS HRES: 59.6% · 2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00IFS HRES: 59.6% · 2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00IFS HRES: 59.6% · 2026-10-20T07:52:00+00:00IFS HRES: 59.6% · 2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00IFS HRES: 59.6% · 2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00IFS HRES: 59.6% · 2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00IFS HRES: 67.7% · 2026-10-20T10:54:04+00:00IFS HRES: 67.7% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00IFS HRES: 67.7% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00IFS HRES: 67.7% · 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00IFS HRES: 67.7% · 2026-10-20T13:55:24+00:00IFS HRES: 67.7% · 2026-10-20T14:46:25+00:00ICON: 68.4% · 2026-10-20T04:05:18+00:00ICON: 68.4% · 2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:00ICON: 68.4% · 2026-10-20T05:36:34+00:00ICON: 68.4% · 2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00ICON: 68.4% · 2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00ICON: 63.3% · 2026-10-20T07:52:00+00:00ICON: 63.3% · 2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00ICON: 63.3% · 2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00ICON: 63.3% · 2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00ICON: 63.3% · 2026-10-20T10:54:04+00:00ICON: 63.3% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00ICON: 63.3% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00ICON: 63.3% · 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00ICON: 63.3% · 2026-10-20T13:55:24+00:00ICON: 63.3% · 2026-10-20T14:46:25+00:0010-20 04:0510-20 09:2210-20 14:46
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T14:46:25+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T04:05:18+00:0061.7%62.6%38.6%59.6%68.4%
2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:0061.7%62.6%38.6%59.6%68.4%
2026-10-20T05:36:34+00:0061.7%62.6%55.1%59.6%68.4%
2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:0061.7%62.6%55.1%59.6%68.4%
2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:0061.7%62.6%55.1%59.6%68.4%
2026-10-20T07:52:00+00:0063.0%62.6%55.1%59.6%63.3%
2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:0063.0%62.6%55.1%59.6%63.3%
2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:0063.0%62.6%55.1%59.6%63.3%
2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:0063.0%62.6%55.1%59.6%63.3%
2026-10-20T10:54:04+00:0063.0%60.9%48.6%67.7%63.3%
2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:0063.0%60.9%48.6%67.7%63.3%
2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:0063.0%60.9%48.6%67.7%63.3%
2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:0063.0%60.9%48.6%67.7%63.3%
2026-10-20T13:55:24+00:0063.0%61.1%48.6%67.7%63.3%
2026-10-20T14:46:25+00:0063.0%61.1%48.6%67.7%63.3%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES68%85.2°F3.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
ICON63%84.7°F3.5°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
AIFS Single63%84.8°F3.9°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble61%84.3°F2.9°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend59%84.0°F2.2°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
NWS forecast56%84.0°F3.1°F2026-10-20 03:00Pending
WeatherNext 249%83.4°F2.9°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KSAT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAT-20261021-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 20 · 04:05 UTC

Original listing: San Antonio high ≥ 84°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗