KSAT / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Antonio, TXHigh ≥ 88°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST32%Oct 15 · 10:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

43%

35%

32%

28%

Consensus

32%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 23.2¢Risks 23.25u

ICONNO 76.8¢Risks 76.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +76.75u · ICON −76.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	10.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	23.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	44.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	44.0%	—	—	—	—	31.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	36.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	36.1%	—	—	—	—	29.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	40.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	37.3%	—	—	—	—	26.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	28.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	31.3%	—	—	—	—	26.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	20.6%	—	53.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	13.9%	—	50.0%	—	—	31.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	18.0%	—	52.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	38.4%	—	—	27.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	12.9%	—	23.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	14.7%	0.0%	16.7%	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	15.0%	—	21.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	9.6%	26.9%	15.8%	0.1%	—	32.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	31.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	10.0%	48.5%	27.2%	23.2%	—	29.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	23.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	10.0%	40.2%	18.4%	16.9%	—	27.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	17.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	11.9%	41.3%	17.4%	21.2%	—	32.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	8.8%	—	14.4%	—	—	30.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	8.7%	40.1%	17.3%	17.3%	—	25.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	7.8%	16.7%	19.0%	—	—	21.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	6.5%	31.4%	18.4%	14.1%	—	22.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	6.6%	24.2%	27.1%	—	—	22.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	6.1%	28.2%	26.6%	11.0%	—	17.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	5.6%	37.9%	24.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	5.6%	30.4%	25.5%	13.1%	—	21.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	3.8%	23.4%	28.2%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	25.9%	24.3%	9.8%	—	15.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	3.1%	32.6%	27.1%	—	—	15.6%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	3.8%	34.1%	28.2%	11.4%	5.3%	17.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	13.5%	0.0%	—	14.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	56%	88.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	43%	86.4°F	6.3°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	35%	85.3°F	5.6°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	32%	86.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	28%	84.4°F	5.4°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
ICON	3%	69.4°F	9.9°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 88°F · KSAT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAT-20261022-TMAX-GE88
Opened Oct 15 · 07:50 UTC

Original listing: San Antonio high ≥ 88°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗