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KSAT / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Antonio, TXHigh ≥ 88°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST32%Oct 15 · 10:07 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
43%
AIFS
35%
EPS
32%
WN2
28%
ICON
3%
Consensus
32%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 23.2¢Risks 23.25u
VS
ICONNO 76.8¢Risks 76.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +76.75u · ICON −76.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 34.8% · 2026-10-15T07:50:14+00:00AIFS Single: 34.8% · 2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:00AIFS Single: 34.8% · 2026-10-15T09:21:47+00:00AIFS Single: 34.8% · 2026-10-15T10:07:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 32.0% · 2026-10-15T07:50:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 32.0% · 2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 32.0% · 2026-10-15T09:21:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 32.0% · 2026-10-15T10:07:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 28.3% · 2026-10-15T07:50:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 28.3% · 2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 28.3% · 2026-10-15T09:21:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 28.3% · 2026-10-15T10:07:36+00:00IFS HRES: 43.1% · 2026-10-15T07:50:14+00:00IFS HRES: 43.1% · 2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:00IFS HRES: 43.1% · 2026-10-15T09:21:47+00:00IFS HRES: 43.1% · 2026-10-15T10:07:36+00:00ICON: 3.4% · 2026-10-15T07:50:14+00:00ICON: 3.4% · 2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:00ICON: 3.4% · 2026-10-15T09:21:47+00:00ICON: 3.4% · 2026-10-15T10:07:36+00:0010-15 07:5010-15 09:2110-15 10:07
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-15T10:07:36+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-15T07:50:14+00:0034.8%32.0%28.3%43.1%3.4%
2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:0034.8%32.0%28.3%43.1%3.4%
2026-10-15T09:21:47+00:0034.8%32.0%28.3%43.1%3.4%
2026-10-15T10:07:36+00:0034.8%32.0%28.3%43.1%3.4%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
National Blend56%88.0°F3.3°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
IFS HRES43%86.4°F6.3°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
AIFS Single35%85.3°F5.6°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble32%86.0°F3.2°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 228%84.4°F5.4°F2026-10-14 18:00Pending
ICON3%69.4°F9.9°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 88°F · KSAT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAT-20261022-TMAX-GE88
Opened Oct 15 · 07:50 UTC

Original listing: San Antonio high ≥ 88°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗