KSAT / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Antonio, TXHigh ≥ 89°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST19%Oct 18 · 14:04 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

53%

26%

17%

12%

Consensus

19%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 29.8¢Risks 29.80u

WN2NO 70.2¢Risks 70.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +70.20u · WN2 −70.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	12.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	10.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	9.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	8.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	3.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	23.9%	—	—	—	—	22.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	36.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	27.7%	—	—	—	—	17.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	24.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	16.6%	—	30.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	24.0%	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	11.3%	—	42.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	13.9%	—	32.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	7.8%	—	—	—	—	23.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	18.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	0.1%	—	—	29.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	23.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	4.7%	0.1%	9.6%	—	—	26.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	23.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	5.4%	40.3%	29.2%	0.7%	—	23.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	18.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	7.4%	31.0%	19.9%	20.4%	—	24.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	5.0%	—	19.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	4.8%	33.0%	17.4%	15.1%	—	18.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	4.1%	—	15.9%	—	—	4.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	4.7%	33.0%	16.9%	17.4%	—	18.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	23.7%	—	—	16.3%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	3.4%	26.5%	18.9%	22.5%	—	13.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	3.4%	14.2%	20.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	2.7%	24.8%	17.8%	21.4%	—	15.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	2.0%	16.6%	17.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	1.7%	13.9%	16.6%	18.4%	—	10.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	17.1%	14.8%	—	—	10.8%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	1.3%	20.3%	17.1%	17.1%	2.0%	11.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	7.6%	—	—	6.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	89.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
ICON	53%	89.0°F	6.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	26%	84.7°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	25%	87.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	17%	83.7°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	12%	85.9°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	6%	82.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 89°F · KSAT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAT-20261023-TMAX-GE89
Opened Oct 17 · 04:42 UTC

Original listing: San Antonio high ≥ 89°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗