KSAT / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Antonio, TXHigh ≥ 89°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST19%Oct 18 · 14:04 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

53%

26%

17%

12%

Consensus

19%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 29.8¢Risks 29.80u

WN2NO 70.2¢Risks 70.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +70.20u · WN2 −70.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T14:04:13+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T04:42:17+00:00	18.8%	24.1%	15.4%	29.4%	62.6%
2026-10-17T05:28:28+00:00	18.8%	24.1%	14.5%	29.4%	62.6%
2026-10-17T06:13:39+00:00	18.8%	24.1%	14.5%	29.4%	62.6%
2026-10-17T06:58:49+00:00	18.8%	24.1%	14.5%	29.4%	62.6%
2026-10-17T07:44:55+00:00	22.4%	24.1%	14.5%	28.2%	55.6%
2026-10-17T08:30:40+00:00	22.4%	24.1%	14.5%	28.2%	55.6%
2026-10-17T09:16:41+00:00	22.4%	24.1%	14.5%	28.2%	55.6%
2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00	22.4%	24.1%	14.5%	28.2%	55.6%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00	22.4%	24.1%	14.5%	28.2%	55.6%
2026-10-17T11:32:14+00:00	22.4%	29.8%	14.7%	28.2%	55.6%
2026-10-17T12:17:29+00:00	22.4%	29.8%	14.7%	28.2%	55.6%
2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00	22.4%	29.8%	14.7%	28.2%	55.6%
2026-10-17T13:47:53+00:00	18.3%	29.8%	14.7%	28.5%	55.6%
2026-10-17T14:39:19+00:00	18.3%	30.2%	14.8%	28.2%	55.6%
2026-10-17T15:25:08+00:00	18.3%	22.9%	14.8%	28.2%	55.6%
2026-10-17T16:10:34+00:00	18.3%	22.9%	14.8%	28.2%	55.6%
2026-10-17T16:55:42+00:00	18.3%	22.9%	11.2%	28.2%	55.6%
2026-10-17T17:40:51+00:00	18.3%	22.9%	11.2%	28.2%	55.6%
2026-10-17T18:25:58+00:00	18.3%	22.9%	11.2%	28.2%	55.6%
2026-10-17T19:11:05+00:00	18.3%	22.9%	11.2%	28.2%	55.6%
2026-10-17T19:56:14+00:00	17.8%	22.9%	11.2%	29.3%	57.8%
2026-10-17T20:41:32+00:00	17.8%	22.9%	11.2%	29.3%	57.8%
2026-10-17T21:26:39+00:00	17.8%	22.9%	11.2%	29.3%	57.8%
2026-10-17T22:11:55+00:00	17.8%	22.9%	11.2%	29.3%	57.8%
2026-10-17T22:57:05+00:00	17.8%	22.9%	10.0%	29.3%	57.8%
2026-10-17T23:42:14+00:00	17.8%	22.8%	10.0%	29.3%	57.8%
2026-10-18T00:27:27+00:00	17.8%	22.8%	10.0%	29.3%	57.8%
2026-10-18T01:12:56+00:00	17.8%	22.8%	10.0%	29.3%	57.8%
2026-10-18T01:58:15+00:00	17.3%	22.8%	10.0%	29.3%	57.8%
2026-10-18T02:43:23+00:00	17.3%	22.8%	10.0%	29.3%	57.8%
2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00	17.3%	22.8%	10.0%	29.3%	57.8%
2026-10-18T04:14:29+00:00	17.3%	22.8%	10.0%	29.3%	57.8%
2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:00	17.3%	22.8%	14.3%	29.3%	57.8%
2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00	17.3%	22.8%	14.3%	29.3%	57.8%
2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00	17.3%	22.8%	14.3%	29.3%	57.8%
2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00	17.3%	22.8%	14.3%	29.3%	57.8%
2026-10-18T08:01:41+00:00	16.1%	22.8%	14.3%	25.6%	53.3%
2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00	16.1%	22.8%	14.3%	25.6%	53.3%
2026-10-18T09:32:21+00:00	16.1%	22.8%	14.3%	25.6%	53.3%
2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00	16.1%	22.8%	14.3%	25.6%	53.3%
2026-10-18T11:02:56+00:00	16.1%	11.9%	6.3%	25.6%	53.3%
2026-10-18T11:48:17+00:00	16.1%	11.9%	6.3%	25.6%	53.3%
2026-10-18T12:33:51+00:00	16.1%	11.9%	6.3%	25.6%	53.3%
2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00	16.1%	11.9%	6.3%	25.6%	53.3%
2026-10-18T14:04:13+00:00	16.6%	11.9%	6.3%	25.6%	53.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	89.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
ICON	53%	89.0°F	6.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	26%	84.7°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	25%	87.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	17%	83.7°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	12%	85.9°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	6%	82.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 89°F · KSAT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAT-20261023-TMAX-GE89
Opened Oct 17 · 04:42 UTC

Original listing: San Antonio high ≥ 89°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗