KSAT / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Antonio, TXHigh ≥ 89°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST20%Oct 18 · 14:04 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

38%

38%

17%

12%

10%

Consensus

20%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 24.0¢Risks 24.00u

WN2NO 76.0¢Risks 76.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +76.00u · WN2 −76.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	4.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	10.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	8.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	8.0%	—	—	—	—	19.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	20.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	17.4%	—	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	21.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	7.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	24.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	14.8%	—	21.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	13.0%	—	—	—	—	24.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	8.2%	—	29.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	25.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	22.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	14.8%	—	—	24.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	30.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	0.0%	34.2%	—	—	23.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	7.6%	—	30.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	5.4%	21.4%	24.6%	0.1%	—	19.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	28.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	4.8%	14.0%	27.2%	23.7%	—	19.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	5.0%	—	34.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	4.8%	23.9%	17.9%	24.5%	—	20.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	4.6%	—	18.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	5.3%	22.4%	21.2%	18.4%	—	19.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	26.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	4.1%	26.5%	20.7%	19.5%	—	14.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	3.8%	2.7%	28.8%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	3.9%	23.4%	29.9%	29.1%	13.1%	15.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	15.0%	—	—	10.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	53%	89.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	38%	86.5°F	6.6°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
ICON	38%	86.3°F	7.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	25%	87.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	17%	83.4°F	5.4°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	12%	85.5°F	2.5°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	10%	82.5°F	4.7°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 89°F · KSAT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAT-20261024-TMAX-GE89
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: San Antonio high ≥ 89°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗